2020: increased turnout in swing states/decreased turnout in non-swing states
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  Election What-ifs? (Moderator: Dereich)
  2020: increased turnout in swing states/decreased turnout in non-swing states
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Author Topic: 2020: increased turnout in swing states/decreased turnout in non-swing states  (Read 270 times)
Inmate Trump
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« on: July 03, 2020, 03:32:41 PM »

What would happen if there is major increased turnout specifically in swing states mixed with a severely decreased turnout in non-swing states?

I would imagine this being something like the pandemic scaring people in safe states away so much that it makes those safe states a little more unreliably safe...while the base for both sides is highly motivated after Dem loses in 2016 and GOP motivation for Supreme Court dominancy/fears of losing the WH.

How much would these two factors mixing together change the map?
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: July 04, 2020, 12:16:35 PM »

Increased turnout in swing states likely benefits Democrats, as it's long been shown that when turnout is higher, they peform better. Decreased turnout in safe states could mean a couple different things depending on how you define 'safe' (e.g. borderline states like Colorado and Virginia on the D side and Ohio, Iowa, and (perhaps) South Carolina on the R side) but it probably won't change the outcome to the level of a safe state flipping. Conclusion: this scenario probably helps Democrats unless catastrophic turnout drops among minorities in safe states make the new 'blue wall' crack (not gonna lie, I could see angry progressives in Oregon screwing Dems in the state in a fringe scenario like this one).
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