If it were possible, would Schwarzenegger have run?

[Samof94]

Let’s say an amendment made naturalized citizens of the United States able to run for President was passed in the 2000’s, which would apply to him strongly given he’s Austrian. Would he have run in 2012 given he had just ended his second term as Governor?? 

[Sir Mohamed]

He would have run in 2016, gained some traction early on, but not gotten the nomination. Arnold Schwarzenegger is out of touch with todays GOP electorate outside Titanium D states. Some at the GOP base may be inclined to vote for him in the beginning due to his fame as actor, but then turn to Mr. Trump or another outsider as soon as they find out how moderate he is by today's standards.

As 2016 nominee, he'd probably win by winning over enough centrist voters and even some Democrats, though turnout among evangelicals may be lower than expected. If even Trump, according to polls, was seen as less extreme than HRC, Schwarenegger would definitely have a decent shot at winning the GE. I just don't see him get there.

[brucejoel99]

Probably in 2008, though I imagine the base would just consider him to be another squishy moderate & so would still go for McCain. A 2012 Romney vs. Schwarzenegger primary battle would be interesting, though.

[Canis]

I think he certainly would have in 2008 after being reelected in such a landslide in 2006 he was really looked at as a superstar if he could have won the nomination is another story and while its possible he might have preformed better than McCain the circumstances and environment was so toxic to the GOP its almost impossible for him to have won the GE Cali would probably be High Single Digits for Obama though so he would do a lot better in the popular vote I think theirs a chance he runs in 2016 as by then his public image had mostly recovered from the financial crisis and the affair scandal but honestly he would have easily flamed out in the primary as Trump would have quickly taken his lane I don't think he would have ran in 2012 as after the financial crisis and affair his public image took a huge hit as did the state GOP which is a reason Brown won so easily in a Wave year with a relatively strong GOP opponent

[KYRockefeller]

Probably in 2008, though I imagine the base would just consider him to be another squishy moderate & so would still go for McCain. A 2012 Romney vs. Schwarzenegger primary battle would be interesting, though.

A Romney-Schwarzenegger ticket would've been pretty freakin' awesome IRL.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

No, he had the extta marital affair with his house maid, and had a child out of wed lock and it would have been all over the news as soon as he ran for Prez.   He was more unpopular  at the end of his term than he started.  He should have stayed acting.

[Agonized-Statism]

In a different climate, it would be guaranteed. However, I don't know how well he would do in the stuffy neocon days, or how he would manage the right-wing populist turn in the GOP. His window of opportunity would have been 2012, I think.

[Alben Barkley]

He absolutely would have. He has campaigned for an amendment to abolish the natural-born citizen clause. Not hard to figure out why.

However, it’s a little hard to see when he could win. In 2008, he might have been able to win the nomination — McCain wasn’t exactly a conventional Republican either, so I’m not sure Arnold’s moderate views necessarily sink him. Though they did Giuliani that same year, but Arnold has much more charisma and star power of course. Might be able to ride that to the nomination. However, he would almost definitely lose in the general as any Republican would that year.

In 2012, his problem would be the affair and child with the maid which was exposed in 2011. At that time, the GOP still pretended to care about such things. Plus, his second term as governor didn’t exactly end on a great note. He was no longer at the height of his popularity. If he did make it to the general, these things plus going up against incumbent Obama would put him at a disadvantage. It would not be hard to find things about his record to criticize or to make him out to be something of a joke. He probably wouldn’t do much better than Romney.

In 2016, he would be going up against a GOP base that was more populist and nationalist than ever before. They would very likely reject him and his views in favor of Trump, just as they did Kasich and the rest. He might have done better than they did due to his star power, but I still think the nomination would be an uphill battle. The bright side for him is that the GOP no longer put on any pretense of caring about moral lapses now, and perhaps if Arnold was willing to take a sharp right and populist turn he’d have a chance. I don’t think he would be though. If he did make it to the general, he would definitely be the favorite against Hillary though.

[OSR stands with Israel]

Arnold could easily have gotten populist mantle, which many people forget wasnt really based on particular policies but rather the fact people were pissed at the way things were currently going and wanted to elect an outsider

Arnold easily could get outsider and populist mantle if he runs the right type of campaign

[SevenEleven]

He absolutely would have. He has campaigned for an amendment to abolish the natural-born citizen clause. Not hard to figure out why.

Because it's the right thing to do?

He also campaigned for initiatives that have made it more difficult for the GOP to contest races in CA, because it was the right thing to do and CA is better for it.

[Chips]

Imagine:

Schwarzenegger: 271 electoral votes
Clinton: 267 electoral votes

This would get some eyes rolling.