July senate ratings

[ProgressiveModerate]

We've had many good recent senate polls, and finally can say with confidence who some of the canidates will be in certain key races like CO. Where do you think the race for the senate majority stands as of now?

This is my personal prediction (oops NM should be one tier lower, "Very Likely D" instead of "Safe D":



Percentages:
MA, RI, NJ, DE, OR: >99% D
IL: 99% D
VA: 97% D
NM: 94% D
NH: 93% D
MN: 88% D
AZ: 82% D
CO: 79% D
MI: 74% D
NC: 63% D
-----------------
ME: 57% R
MT: 58% R
IA: 67% R
GA (Normal): 72% R
AK: 73% R
TX: 90% R
KS, GA(S): 91% R
SC: 93% R
MS, KY: 96% R
LA: 97% R
AL, TN: 99% R
Evereything else is 100% R

[Roll Roons]

Safe D: DE, IL, NJ, MA, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: AZ, CO, MI, MN, NH
Tossup: ME, NC, MT
Lean R: GA regular, GA special, IA, KS
Likely R: AL, AK, SC, TX
Safe R: AR, ID, KY, LA, MS, NE, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY

Also is there a way we can request polls? More really need to be done in ME and the two GA seats.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

My early ratings in July:



At gunpoint, I'd unironically favour Perdue for reelection in the tossup race, leaving the Senate 52-48.

[ProgressiveModerate]

My early ratings in July:



At gunpoint, I'd unironically favour Perdue for reelection in the tossup race, leaving the Senate 52-48.

Wow you are very optimistic. I currently think Biden will win roughly 330 EVs, but we'll get a 51-49 R senate.

[Orser67]

Dems have a major advantage: CO
Dems have a significant advantage: AZ, (hold MI)
Dems have a slight advantage: ME, NC, MT
Tossup: GA, IA
Plausible pick-ups: GA-S, KS, TX
Long shots: AK, SC, (hold AL)

[Ferguson97]

Safe D: OR, NM, IL, MN, VA, DE, NJ, RI, MA, NJ, NH
Likely D: AZ, CO, MI
Lean D: ME
Tossup: IA, MT, NC
Lean R: GA, KS (if Kobach is nominee)
Likely R: KY, SC, AL, TX, AK, GA-S, KS (if someone other than Kobach is the nominee)
Safe R: ID, WY, SD, NE, OK, LA, AR, MS, TN, WV

[MT Treasurer]

GA-S = FL

Both GA seats go to a runoff, and with no Toss-ups:

NC decides it, and I refuse to call it at this point in time (Cunningham would narrowly win if the election were held today, but Tilis could eke it out in November.)

[WD]

My prediction right now. I’m assuming Kobach wins the nomination if not KS goes to the Republicans.

In this Scenario Biden gets 368 EVs

[GeneralMacArthur]

Titanium D:  OR, IL, VA, NJ, DE, MA, RI, MN, NM
Likely D:  NH, MI, CO, AZ
Lean D:  NC, ME
Toss-up:  MT, IA, GA (both)
Lean R:  AK, KS w/Kobach
Likely R:  AL, TX

If Dems win the presidency and all the lean D seats they get control, but Joe Manchin sets the agenda.

[Annihilation]

Most safe R to most safe D
West Virginia
Nebraska
Wyoming
Arkansas
Oklahoma
Louisiana
Idaho
South Dakota
Tennessee
Mississippi
Alabama
Kentucky
South Carolina
Alaska
Texas
Georgia-Special
Kansas
Georgia
Iowa
Maine
North Carolina
Montana
Colorado
Michigan
Arizona
Minnesota
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Virginia
Delaware
New Jersey
Illinois
Massachusetts
Oregon

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

Likely D: AZ, CO, MN, NH
Lean D: MI
Toss-Up: GA-R, ME, MT, NC
Lean R: GA-S, IA
Likely R: AK, KS, TX
Safe R: AL

Everything else is safe.

[ND, SD, MT, WY, and ID statehood was and is unconstitutional]

[brucejoel99]

Safe D: DE, IL, MA, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Likely D: MI, CO, AZ
Lean D: ME
Tilt D: MT, NC
Tossup: GA
Tilt R: GA-S
Lean R: IA, KS, TX
Likely R: AL, AK, SC, KY, MS
Safe R: AR, ID, LA, NE, OK, SD, TN, WV, WY

[andjey]

With Tossups:


Without Tossups:


KS= Tilt R, assuming Marshall is nominee, Lean D with Kobach