GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas
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  GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas
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Author Topic: GOP Internals: Up less than 5 in Montana, Down in Maine, Georgia and Kansas  (Read 5220 times)
Ferguson97
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« Reply #50 on: July 03, 2020, 01:38:38 PM »

Is this be an accurate Biden +10/winning Kansas map?



I think he'd win Alaska and Montana as well if he wins Kansas.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #51 on: July 03, 2020, 02:01:04 PM »

Guys let’s not get our hopes up here. Bidens favored to win right now but some of these claims? I mean this is like saying the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are on track to play in the Super Bowl.

There is absolutely zero chance that:

• Trump wins Montana by 5
• Biden wins Kansas

Now Biden wins Georgia is a long shot, to me it’s the reddest (atlas blue) of the swing states

As for Biden winning ME02 I actually don’t think is that far fetched. I think it could happen in even an narrow Biden win

IF by some miracle I’m wrong about Montana and it’s actually +5 for Trump then that almost definitely means Bullock is winning that Senate seat (How crazy would it be if Montana had 2 D senators, and a  Democratic governor)
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Inmate Trump
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« Reply #52 on: July 03, 2020, 03:20:33 PM »

Guys let’s not get our hopes up here. Bidens favored to win right now but some of these claims? I mean this is like saying the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are on track to play in the Super Bowl.

There is absolutely zero chance that:

• Trump wins Montana by 5
• Biden wins Kansas

Now Biden wins Georgia is a long shot, to me it’s the reddest (atlas blue) of the swing states

As for Biden winning ME02 I actually don’t think is that far fetched. I think it could happen in even an narrow Biden win

IF by some miracle I’m wrong about Montana and it’s actually +5 for Trump then that almost definitely means Bullock is winning that Senate seat (How crazy would it be if Montana had 2 D senators, and a  Democratic governor)

Agreed.  I've started seeing a lot of posters here over zealous in our chances this November.  We must always treat this election as though we're the underdog, and fight as such.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #53 on: July 03, 2020, 04:41:46 PM »

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #54 on: July 03, 2020, 06:19:32 PM »

I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.

Dems arent winning MO

Democrats are not winning Missouri, all right -- unless they win back the sorts of voters who voted for Democrats in Presidential elections in the 1990's but have voted for republicans for President since 2000.

The southern part of Missouri is more like West Virginia than like any other state. West Virginia went for Democratic nominees for President in elections not Republican blow-outs

Trump loses Texas (and 400 or so electoral votes) before he loses Missouri.

If Trump loses Missouri, then he is an epic failure as President. It would be as if Obama had lost Connecticut and ended up with rougbly 100 electoral votes in 2012.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #55 on: July 03, 2020, 06:26:12 PM »

I think it’s time to consider that Missouri poll may have more merit than people thought, by the way.

Dems arent winning MO

Democrats are not winning Missouri, all right -- unless they win back the sorts of voters who voted for Democrats in Presidential elections in the 1990's but have voted for republicans for President since 2000.

The southern part of Missouri is more like West Virginia than like any other state. West Virginia went for Democratic nominees for President in elections not Republican blow-outs

Trump loses Texas (and 400 or so electoral votes) before he loses Missouri.

If Trump loses Missouri, then he is an epic failure as President. It would be as if Obama had lost Connecticut and ended up with rougbly 100 electoral votes in 2012.

Biden isnt winning MO, but if he comes within 6 pts, Nicole Galloway may win as Parsons lead keeps getting smaller and smaller. That's why I have Galloway winning while Trump wins MO
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Brittain33
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« Reply #56 on: July 03, 2020, 07:04:06 PM »

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.

It’s not a Trump internal. It’s a GOP internal coming from other campaigns, probably senate.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #57 on: July 03, 2020, 07:15:12 PM »

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.

It’s not a Trump internal. It’s a GOP internal coming from other campaigns, probably senate.


Aaaah
Well my first point remains except it's the GOP other campaigns who have a crappy pollster (and a lot of leakers)
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #58 on: July 03, 2020, 08:41:39 PM »

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.

It’s not a Trump internal. It’s a GOP internal coming from other campaigns, probably senate.


Aaaah
Well my first point remains except it's the GOP other campaigns who have a crappy pollster (and a lot of leakers)

People need to really stop with the whole "I think this is impossible personally so it's never going to happen"

We are literally seeing Biden +14 national margins. A LOT is possible.
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Battista Minola 1616
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« Reply #59 on: July 03, 2020, 08:55:47 PM »

A Trump internal having Trump down in Kansas to me likely signifies this:

Trump has a crappy pollster or a pollster who got an outlier-ish (on the bad side for Trump) week, and some official who is not very loyal to Trump has leaked the numbers to spin it and portray Trump as the next Herbert Hoover.

The other explanation is that this is a deliberate spin by people loyal to Trump who want to massively lower expectations, but this seems too far-fetched because like there's a limit, not even Biden's performance in NH primary lowered expectations this much.

It’s not a Trump internal. It’s a GOP internal coming from other campaigns, probably senate.


Aaaah
Well my first point remains except it's the GOP other campaigns who have a crappy pollster (and a lot of leakers)

People need to really stop with the whole "I think this is impossible personally so it's never going to happen"

We are literally seeing Biden +14 national margins. A LOT is possible.

I never said it's impossible. But I think that if Republican internals have Trump down in Kansas, they are bit crappy. Biden is leading the national average of polls by 9 points, not 14 or 19
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #60 on: July 03, 2020, 09:06:50 PM »

If he's actually losing Kansas he is losing everywhere, 1964 style. JHK's forecast has several "safe" states that flip before KS.... AK, MT, MO, IN, MS, SC... you get the picture. Some insider knowledge: small sample size, but of my American friends, several of them supported Trump in '16, but only plans to vote for him this time around. Political climate has changed a lot in four years!
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Interlocutor is just not there yet
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« Reply #61 on: July 03, 2020, 09:11:05 PM »

Guys let’s not get our hopes up here. Bidens favored to win right now but some of these claims? I mean this is like saying the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are on track to play in the Super Bowl.

There is absolutely zero chance that:

• Trump wins Montana by 5
• Biden wins Kansas

Now Biden wins Georgia is a long shot, to me it’s the reddest (atlas blue) of the swing states

Didn't you say Biden has a 1% chance of flipping Georgia? And that it's the Democrats fools gold to end all fools gold?

I mean, that's certainly one way to not get your hopes up.
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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #62 on: July 03, 2020, 09:12:57 PM »

Guys let’s not get our hopes up here. Bidens favored to win right now but some of these claims? I mean this is like saying the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are on track to play in the Super Bowl.

There is absolutely zero chance that:

• Trump wins Montana by 5
• Biden wins Kansas

Now Biden wins Georgia is a long shot, to me it’s the reddest (atlas blue) of the swing states

As for Biden winning ME02 I actually don’t think is that far fetched. I think it could happen in even an narrow Biden win

IF by some miracle I’m wrong about Montana and it’s actually +5 for Trump then that almost definitely means Bullock is winning that Senate seat (How crazy would it be if Montana had 2 D senators, and a  Democratic governor)

Agreed.  I've started seeing a lot of posters here over zealous in our chances this November.  We must always treat this election as though we're the underdog, and fight as such.

I disagree.  We can fight like hell to win while also acknowledging reality.
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #63 on: July 03, 2020, 09:16:28 PM »

bruh

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South Dakota Democrat
jrk26
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« Reply #64 on: July 03, 2020, 09:16:59 PM »

Guys let’s not get our hopes up here. Bidens favored to win right now but some of these claims? I mean this is like saying the Detroit Lions and Jacksonville Jaguars are on track to play in the Super Bowl.

There is absolutely zero chance that:

• Trump wins Montana by 5
• Biden wins Kansas

Now Biden wins Georgia is a long shot, to me it’s the reddest (atlas blue) of the swing states

Didn't you say Biden has a 1% chance of flipping Georgia? And that it's the Democrats fools gold to end all fools gold?

I mean, that's certainly one way to not get your hopes up.

It's also one way to not be accurate.
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DabbingSanta
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« Reply #65 on: July 03, 2020, 09:19:41 PM »


I really can't see Kansas flipping before Texas...



Lyndon B. Biden: 461 electoral votes, 58% popular vote
Donald J. Goldwater: 77 electoral votes, 41% popular vote
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TrumpBritt24
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« Reply #66 on: July 03, 2020, 09:24:32 PM »


I really can't see Kansas flipping before Texas...



Lyndon B. Biden: 461 electoral votes, 58% popular vote
Donald J. Goldwater: 77 electoral votes, 41% popular vote

Feel free to throw Texas in there I'm okay with it.
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Rookie Yinzer
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« Reply #67 on: July 04, 2020, 12:12:45 AM »

Blue Georgia
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Terry the Fat Shark
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« Reply #68 on: July 04, 2020, 01:33:06 AM »

I would honestly ignore the prediction models in Kansas....is it that shocking that it could be competitive? The state trended a good bit left in 2018, could be an anomaly, but at the same time we shouldn't assume it'll return to form...
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Former President tack50
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« Reply #69 on: July 04, 2020, 05:43:17 AM »


People need to really stop with the whole "I think this is impossible personally so it's never going to happen"

We are literally seeing Biden +14 national margins. A LOT is possible.

Well first of all, the election will not last as Biden+14 for long. It will eventually tighten. Even an 8 point lead would be absolutely massive and the biggest win since what, Reagan 1984?.

But even if you believe the election will be Biden+14, Kansas would still vote for Trump and it would not even be a razor thin margin (probably like Trump+3 or something like that)

If the end result was Biden+14, here is what I think the map would look like this:



SC and AK are really tossups that could go either way, though because of elasticity I think SC votes Trump and AK votes Biden. MS, MO, IN, KS and MT would probably be wins by Trump of around 4-6 points as well. Possibly Utah as well though that one was so weird in 2016 that who really knows what would happen there.

But to actually flip them Biden probably needs to be winning by 20 points, not just a mere 14 points. If Biden wins by 60-40 or more, then the floodgates do indeed open and a map like this becomes possible if Biden wins by say, 21 points (60-39)



In my opinion, with varying levels of "landslide", there comes a different set of states that flip.

Up to 10 point wins the states that open up are straightforward.

At Biden+14/15, the following states open up: SC, AK
At Biden+20/21, the following states open up: MS, UT*, MO, IN, MT, KS, NE-01
At Biden+27, the following states open up: NE-at large, TN, AL
At Biden+30, the following states open up: SD, KY, ID

Beyond Biden+30, who knows.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #70 on: July 04, 2020, 06:15:10 AM »

Map is more likely to look like 2012 than 1996
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YE
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« Reply #71 on: July 04, 2020, 01:51:38 PM »

If Biden won by 30, which won’t happen, he’d win every single state. Don’t assume a uniform swing in blowouts like that because at a certain point the Dem margin is maxed out. It’s even somewhat of a risky assumption (though a good baseline) with a 10 point margin.
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S019
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« Reply #72 on: July 04, 2020, 04:15:16 PM »

If Biden won by 30, which won’t happen, he’d win every single state. Don’t assume a uniform swing in blowouts like that because at a certain point the Dem margin is maxed out. It’s even somewhat of a risky assumption (though a good baseline) with a 10 point margin.

If Biden won by 30, I'd be 90% sure that he loses at least two of WY, OK, WV, AL, these states wouldn't flip unless Biden won by 40 or 50, which would be a landslide of unprecedented proportions, only in one contested election in 1804, has a candidate won the PV by over 37%. In that election, the Federalists still won two states (CT and DE), no candidate is getting a 50 state sweep, unless they are actually unopposed. In 1820, even though Monroe was unopposed, he actually lost Massachusetts in the PV to Federalist electors, but still won their EV's. Not to mention, these elections were in far-less polarized times, even if Trump was absolutely blown out, he would still win at least 1 ruby red state.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #73 on: July 04, 2020, 04:40:07 PM »

If Biden won by 30, polarisation would have broken beyond all recognition. The maximum a Democrat can manage without shattering the current paradigms is about +21% and I think Republicans can (in theory) do slightly better.
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JA
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« Reply #74 on: July 05, 2020, 01:24:22 PM »

If the results are anything close to what recent polls have shown for Kansas and Missouri, then I wouldn’t be surprised to see all of the 5 counties that makeup the core of the KC Metro going for Biden. Trump barely made it over 50% in his best county here; it wouldn’t take much to see these higher income suburban counties swing considerably to Biden.
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