Opinium/The Guardian: Biden +12%

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/jul/08/americans-racism-police-brutality-problems-poll

Sampling period: June 19-24, 2020

Full sample is of 2000 adults, but among those registered to vote who say they are certain to do so, the results are:

Biden 52%
Trump 40%

[wbrocks67]

Odd that they sat on this poll for two weeks, but still lines up with everything else we've been seeing. Trump can't help but be stuck at that 40% mark

[BlueSwan]

But the democracy institute is telling med that the race is tied?

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

This poll was taken before Kanye entered the race, and is therefore junk.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Details acquired by 538:

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200708_National.xlsx

Sample size: 1215 registered voters who say they are certain to vote (listed as likely voters)

Biden 52%
Trump 40%
Some other candidate 3%
Don't know 4%

Beware the crosstabs, but here are results for lower-propensity voters (n.b. not everyone in the following subsamples is registered to vote):

FULL SAMPLE
Biden 48%
Trump 40%
Some other candidate 5%
Don't know 7%

PROBABLY WON'T VOTE
Biden 36%
Trump 17%
Some other candidate 32%
Don't know 14%

ON THE FENCE
Biden 33%
Trump 29%
Some other candidate 11%
Don't know 27%

PROBABLY WILL VOTE
Trump 43%
Biden 40%
Some other candidate 8%
Don't know 8%

[Progressive Pessimist]

I thought this poll was conducted by"Opium" for a second there.

[morgieb]

Why are we seeing so many pollsters for English newspapers getting involved in American polling?

[Orwell]

Why are we seeing so many pollsters for English newspapers getting involved in American polling?

Cuz USA #1!

[HAnnA MArin County]

Why are we seeing so many pollsters for English newspapers getting involved in American polling?

They must enjoy triggering the sociopathic narcissistic snowflake currently occupying the White House.

[BobbieMac]

Why are we seeing so many pollsters for English newspapers getting involved in American polling?

I have absolutely no idea, they didnt do it for previous elections (afaik).

Perhaps because politics is so moribund in the UK they are turning their attention to something more exciting?

[Brittain33]

Why are we seeing so many pollsters for English newspapers getting involved in American polling?

Every time I go to the Guardian website, they promote their donation model and ask for more money. They have a U.S.-oriented site as one of their options. I think they see this as a business opportunity to tap American readers.