1980: Edward Brooke the Republican nominee

[President Johnson]

I know it's next to impossible he would have been the nominee, but assuming he was, how would Senator Edward Brooke (R-MA) have done as nominee in 1980, with every other event unchanged? Would Carter's problems be enough to elect a black president in 1980? Let's say Brooke picks a conservative running mate for party unity. John Anderson is obviously not running here.

[Huey Long is a Republican]

Carter was going to lose 1980 regardless of who his opponent was. He screwed the pooch up that badly. As for who Brooke's running mate, honestly, I think most people agree that it would've been Howard Baker of Tennessee. He's a southern moderate Conservative, bringing balance to Brooke's northern liberalism, he's been in congress for a few years more than Brooke, and He'd have the support base in the South to help Brooke in TN, KY, and maybe VA. 463-75

[Sir Mohamed]

Carter would have done better, but still lost. There was just too much to overcome at that point.

✓ Senator Edward Brooke (R-MA)/Representative Phil Crane (R-IL): 330 EVs.; 51.1%
President Jimmy Carter (D-GA)/Vice President Walter Mondale (D-MN): 208 EVs.; 46.8%

[Alben Barkley]

Carter was going to lose 1980 regardless of who his opponent was. He screwed the pooch up that badly. As for who Brooke's running mate, honestly, I think most people agree that it would've been Howard Baker of Tennessee. He's a southern moderate Conservative, bringing balance to Brooke's northern liberalism, he's been in congress for a few years more than Brooke, and He'd have the support base in the South to help Brooke in TN, KY, and maybe VA. 463-75

I don’t know about that. He ran fairly even with Reagan most of the way through 1980 or even led him despite everything. I definitely think there are other candidates he could have beaten. Maybe not Brooke, but another thread had Jesse Helms as the GOP nominee for example. I think Carter definitely wins there, with Anderson getting significantly more of the moderate Republican vote.

As for Carter “screwing the pooch,” I think that’s even more debatable but that’s a topic for another thread. All I’ll say is that if Reagan had won in 1976 and been dealt the same s—ty hand, it’s a Democrat who would have won in a landslide in 1980.

[Alben Barkley]

What if Anderson still runs?

I think this is less likely with a Brooke as he was much more moderate than Reagan and closer to Anderson’s views. Anderson likely throws his support behind him.

[NewYorkExpress]

Carter still loses, but it is a lot closer than IRL against Reagan.

As for Brooke's running mate, he needed a Conservative, and picking Reagan is a possibility.

Another possibility is Bob Dole (again) or Barry Goldwater.

[Fuzzy Bear]

Brooke, who had been defeated for re-election in 1978, was an extremely liberal Republican.  Let's say he retired to run instead of being defeated.

If Ed Brooke had been the 1980 Republican nominee, there would have been a third party conservative candidacy:

Jimmy Carter/Walter Mondale (D) 323 EV
Edward Brooke/James R. Thompson (R) 91 EV
Ronald Reagan/James L. Buckley (I) 124 EV

There would have inevitably been a conservative third-party challenge if Ed Brooke had been the nominee.  The GOP of 1980 was, very much, a conservative party; it was no longer the kind of party that nominated Dewey twice and settled for Eisenhower so they could win.  Brooke was way out of sync with the GOP; simple demand for a conservative candidate would have brought about a conservative challenger, and that challenger would almost certainly have been Ronald Reagan.