New Jersey Voter Registration Trends Not Great For Republicans
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Author Topic: New Jersey Voter Registration Trends Not Great For Republicans  (Read 923 times)
Gass3268
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« on: July 02, 2020, 11:58:08 AM »
Surprised to see Democratic increases in NJ-02 and NJ-03:



NJ-07 and NJ-11 flipped, NJ-05 is leaving the competative range.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 12:03:07 PM »
Huh. Maybe Van Drew isn't as safe as everyone thinks.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 12:03:30 PM »
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 02, 2020, 12:03:07 PM
Huh. Maybe Van Drew isn't as safe as everyone thinks.

Who thinks Van Drew is safe at this point?
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Landslide Lyndon
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« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2020, 12:04:38 PM »
Considering that the entire state is a huge suburb, this isn't exactly a surprising development.
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Pollster
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« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 12:26:10 PM »
Quote from: Landslide Lyndon on July 02, 2020, 12:04:38 PM
Considering that the entire state is a huge suburb, this isn't exactly a surprising development.

Yeah, New Jersey is perhaps the state Trump is the worst fit for in the country, demographically. If all of these districts are trending D as quickly as these numbers imply, easy to see Biden/Booker/Congressional D's breaking 60% (which Congressional D's narrowly missed in 2018).
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 12:35:26 PM »
Holy sh**t that NJ05 shift
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 12:46:02 PM »
Quote from: TiltsAreUnderrated on July 02, 2020, 12:03:30 PM
Quote from: wbrocks67 on July 02, 2020, 12:03:07 PM
Huh. Maybe Van Drew isn't as safe as everyone thinks.

Who thinks Van Drew is safe at this point?

From the sounds of it, a lot of people seem to think it's Lean R just because Trump won it in 2016 and Van Drew switched.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 01:50:11 PM »
I'm from NJ and I'm not surprised
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Non Swing Voter
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2020, 11:41:57 PM »
Yeah as people above have noted, it's a massive suburb and it's extremely diverse.  It's basically Northern Virginia without the downstate part or at least a much smaller downstate part that doesn't have much impact on state politics.
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Penn_Quaker_Girl
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« Reply #9 on: July 03, 2020, 04:33:40 AM »
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Must...resist...political trends!
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ON Progressive
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« Reply #10 on: July 03, 2020, 10:01:05 AM »
I am actually surprised at NJ-02, considering it had quite the hefty swing from Obama +8 to Trump +5.
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ProgressiveModerate
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« Reply #11 on: July 03, 2020, 10:03:45 AM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 03, 2020, 10:01:05 AM
I am actually surprised at NJ-02, considering it had quite the hefty swing from Obama +8 to Trump +5.

Southern NJ is not a good representation of the rest of NJ. Southern NJ is much more conservative than the rest of the state, and ta the end of the day accounts for a very very small portion of the population.
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« Reply #12 on: July 03, 2020, 03:14:10 PM »
A Christie or Dale Cross type can revitalize the NJ GOP.
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Lognog
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« Reply #13 on: July 03, 2020, 04:02:13 PM »
Quote from: bronz4141 on July 03, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
A Christie or Dale Cross type can revitalize the NJ GOP.

stop
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Ferguson97
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« Reply #14 on: July 03, 2020, 04:10:03 PM »
Quote from: bronz4141 on July 03, 2020, 03:14:10 PM
A Christie or Dale Cross type can revitalize the NJ GOP.

NJ is getting bluer and bluer dude. NJ GOP is dead on a statewide level.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #15 on: July 03, 2020, 05:56:32 PM »
I love my state!

Hopefully this means that Kim can be re-elected and Van Drew's ass can be kicked to the curb. I want that 11D-1R delegation back!

Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 03, 2020, 04:33:40 AM
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Must...resist...political trends!



Poor Mercer County. They don't deserve this. I wish Chris Smith would just move to Freehold or something so they can be properly represented by a Democrat.
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Pollster
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« Reply #16 on: July 03, 2020, 10:53:25 PM »
Quote from: ON Progressive on July 03, 2020, 10:01:05 AM
I am actually surprised at NJ-02, considering it had quite the hefty swing from Obama +8 to Trump +5.

This district was bludgeoned by Hurricane Sandy, so Obama's 2012 numbers here were always a bit inflated (much like Staten Island, which this district has quite a bit in common with). Biden is probably up by mid-single digits here in the current environment.
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cg41386
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« Reply #17 on: July 04, 2020, 08:49:20 AM »
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 03, 2020, 05:56:32 PM
I love my state!

Hopefully this means that Kim can be re-elected and Van Drew's ass can be kicked to the curb. I want that 11D-1R delegation back!

Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 03, 2020, 04:33:40 AM
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Must...resist...political trends!



Poor Mercer County. They don't deserve this. I wish Chris Smith would just move to Freehold or something so they can be properly represented by a Democrat.

It’s only Hamilton Township, I think? It’s definitely not the whole county. But yeah, I still get you.
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Progressive Pessimist
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« Reply #18 on: July 04, 2020, 05:58:04 PM »
Quote from: cg41386 on July 04, 2020, 08:49:20 AM
Quote from: Progressive Pessimist on July 03, 2020, 05:56:32 PM
I love my state!

Hopefully this means that Kim can be re-elected and Van Drew's ass can be kicked to the curb. I want that 11D-1R delegation back!

Quote from: Penn_Quaker_Girl on July 03, 2020, 04:33:40 AM
New Jersey's 4th Congressional District: Must...resist...political trends!



Poor Mercer County. They don't deserve this. I wish Chris Smith would just move to Freehold or something so they can be properly represented by a Democrat.

It’s only Hamilton Township, I think? It’s definitely not the whole county. But yeah, I still get you.

Robbinsville too, but yeah that's what I meant-the Mercer County municipalities in the district.
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