TX-UTexas/YouGov: Trump +4
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:19:40 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 U.S. Presidential General Election Polls (Moderators: Likely Voter, YE)
  TX-UTexas/YouGov: Trump +4
« previous next »
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: TX-UTexas/YouGov: Trump +4  (Read 1373 times)
GeorgiaModerate
Moderators
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,348


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: July 02, 2020, 09:15:07 AM »

And now for a competing viewpoint:

https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/pre-4th-july-preview-new-uttexas-politics-project-poll

Texas: UTexas/YouGov, June 19-29, 1200 RV

Trump 48
Biden 44
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: July 02, 2020, 09:21:32 AM »

Hmm.... comes down to Independents. Trump won them by 14% in 2016, and O'Rourke won them by 3% in 2018.

This has Trump winning them again by 14% which seems... unlikely.
Logged
libertpaulian
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 5,610
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: July 02, 2020, 09:21:45 AM »

I'd say the truth is somewhere in the middle, and if the election were today, Trump would win Texas by 1-2%.
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: July 02, 2020, 09:23:15 AM »

Conducted by YouGov and the University of Texas for the Texas Politics Project.

Undecided 8%

MoE: 2.89%
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: July 02, 2020, 09:28:21 AM »

Conducted by YouGov and the University of Texas for the Texas Politics Project.

Undecided 8%

MoE: 2.89%

YouGov... that explains a lot
Logged
TiltsAreUnderrated
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,771


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 09:29:00 AM »

Conducted by YouGov and the University of Texas for the Texas Politics Project.

Undecided 8%

MoE: 2.89%

YouGov... that explains a lot
What?
Logged
Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
olawakandi
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 87,769
Jamaica
Political Matrix
E: -6.84, S: -0.17


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 09:29:51 AM »

Trump is gonna win TX
Logged
Buzz
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,186


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 09:31:10 AM »

Seems very likely.  I expect the result on ED to be in the 3-5 range
Logged
pbrower2a
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 26,841
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2020, 09:48:09 AM »

COVID-19 has transformed Texas into one huge medical slaughterhouse.

The PPP poll is newer and for that during an ongoing event that cannot look good for the President or Texas statewide Republicans it takes precedence. Ordinarily I would average polls by credible pollsters, but not this time.
Logged
wbrocks67
Atlas Star
*****
Posts: 21,743


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2020, 09:48:56 AM »

Conducted by YouGov and the University of Texas for the Texas Politics Project.

Undecided 8%

MoE: 2.89%

YouGov... that explains a lot
What?

I should've been more specific to the Independents issue. YouGov has oddly been very favorable to Trump on the indies crosstab for a while now. A lot of times still showing Trump winning in their national polls. Not sure why, but their Indie sample tends to be R-leaning typically. Which would explain how Trump is winning by 14% here.
Logged
Rookie Yinzer
RFKFan68
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,188
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2020, 09:54:48 AM »

Hmm.... comes down to Independents. Trump won them by 14% in 2016, and O'Rourke won them by 3% in 2018.

This has Trump winning them again by 14% which seems... unlikely.
I believe Biden will win TX Independents by double digits. TX will be veryyyyyy close.
Logged
Fmr. Gov. NickG
NickG
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 8,143


Political Matrix
E: -8.00, S: -3.49

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2020, 09:56:41 AM »

COVID-19 has transformed Texas into one huge medical slaughterhouse.


I don't really want to take this thread on a prolonged tangent.  But it is worth pointing out how the covid coverage in the news has severely clouded our perceptions of the data.

Texas has the lowest covid death rate of any major state.  It's death rate is less than one-quarter of the national average.  It has been averaging around 30 deaths/day for several months, while New York was averaging almost 1000 deaths/day at its peak.  

I don't doubt that that this number will rise with the recent surge in cases, but it has such a long way to go before it even comes close to what has happened in most northeast and midwestern states that I don't think this characterization is fair at all.
Logged
SaneDemocrat
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,339


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2020, 10:39:53 AM »

Good poll for Trump
Logged
redjohn
Sr. Member
****
Posts: 2,679


Political Matrix
E: -3.35, S: -4.17

P P P
Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2020, 10:47:28 AM »

Yeah, this is a bad poll for Trump. He needs to be winning TX by 7+ points. 4 points means TX is a battleground state and very close for comfort, which will take away his ability to focus in the midwestern states he flipped in 2016.
Logged
BobbieMac
Rookie
**
Posts: 227
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 10:55:31 AM »

On UNS this would put the national race at Biden +8

Which funnily enough is roughly where Yougov have been polling Biden at nationally.

Internal consistency there.
Logged
Beefalow and the Consumer
Beef
Junior Chimp
*****
Posts: 9,123
United States


Political Matrix
E: -2.77, S: -8.78

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 11:07:40 AM »

Current state of the race: A poll that shows Trump up by 4 in TX is good news for him.
Logged
super6646
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 590
Canada


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 05:23:44 PM »

The fact this is good news for Trump says A LOT about the current state of the race.

Didn't think Texas would be a tossup until 2024, but I guess things are just that way rn.
Logged
Progressive Pessimist
Atlas Superstar
*****
Posts: 32,547
United States


Political Matrix
E: -6.71, S: -7.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2020, 06:11:29 PM »

It is still pretty bad for Trump since I imagine that Texas' recent bout with the virus isn't going to make him more popular there.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.043 seconds with 12 queries.