Texas-PPP: Biden +2

[GeorgiaModerate]

https://www.publicpolicypolling.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/TXToplines7220.pdf
Texas: PPP, June 24-25, 729 RV

Biden 48
Trump 46

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Undecided 5%

Out of interest, where are you getting that this was an RV sample?

[GeorgiaModerate]

Undecided 5%

Out of interest, where are you getting that this was an RV sample?

PPP described it as "Survey of 729 Texas voters", which I am assuming means RV.  When they do LV samples they are usually labeled as such.

[pppolitics]

The problem with TX is the lack of no-excuse vote by mail for voters under 65

[ON Progressive]

The problem with TX is the lack of no-excuse vote by mail for voters under 65

There’s a loophole around that FWIW: just claim you have a disability. They won’t check if you actually have a disability.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

The problem with TX is the lack of no-excuse vote by mail for voters under 65

Honestly, it's probably for the best, as now Republicans can't come up with legitimate excuses to close polling stations in heavily minority precincts and counties.

Anyway, Tossup remains a tossup. This isn't even counting the fact that Democrats have overperformed their polling averages in Texas for each of the past 4 cycles.

[psychprofessor]

All but guarantees a loss in the popular vote - typically R's need to run up the score in Texas to off-set losses in other large states.

[Holmes]

The problem with TX is the lack of no-excuse vote by mail for voters under 65

Honestly, it's probably for the best, as now Republicans can't come up with legitimate excuses to close polling stations in heavily minority precincts and counties.

Haha

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

It's a RV sample, not LV just like PPP GA was RV

[wbrocks67]

Interesting that PPP finds Biden +2 in TX and +4 in GA but only +6 in MI.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Interesting that PPP finds Biden +2 in TX and +4 in GA but only +6 in MI.

Trendz bruh

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Pisani confirms the sample is of RVs and puts the MoE at 3.6%

[pppolitics]

The problem with TX is the lack of no-excuse vote by mail for voters under 65

There’s a loophole around that FWIW: just claim you have a disability. They won’t check if you actually have a disability.

If you do that, it could came back to bite you in the *** later if you decide to do anything important like run for office.

[OneJ]

Averaging this poll with the other TX poll you get Biden 46, Trump 47. Pure tossup status as it's been for months now.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

For reference their last TX poll had Trump up 2.

[Sbane]

Biden will get 48% of the vote. Looks about right though Trump will likely pull ahead in the end.

[BobbieMac]

Consistent with around a Biden +13 nationally on UNS, and consistent with Colorado +17 (PPP had Michigan +6, whereas on UNS you would expect +11)

[Sbane]

Interesting that PPP finds Biden +2 in TX and +4 in GA but only +6 in MI.

Why is this so surprising? Georgia and Michigan were only off by about 5 points in 2016. Texas and Michigan were off by about 9. Only small trends are required for the result above.

[Sbane]

Consistent with around a Biden +13 nationally on UNS, and consistent with Colorado +17 (PPP had Michigan +6, whereas on UNS you would expect +11)

Texas flips if Biden can win by about 8-9 in the PV.

[President Johnson]

KING JOSEPH

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's just not ready yet. Can't risk it when he's only up in MI/PA/WI by around 8%

[Ferguson97]

I'm still not convinced it'll happen but holy sh**t I'd be so happy if it did.

Texas is absolutely worth investing in.

[Hammy]

It's just not ready yet. Can't risk it when he's only up in MI/PA/WI by around 8%

This is sarcasm right? Texas is one of the few states in 2018 where Dems overperformed their PPP margin.

[Interlocutor is just not there yet]

It's just not ready yet. Can't risk it when he's only up in MI/PA/WI by around 8%

This is sarcasm right? Texas is one of the few states in 2018 where Dems overperformed their PPP margin.

But it’s just not there yet.

There's simply no modern precedent for Democrats winning Georgia Texas. They never won it in 28 44 years, so don't even try.

We can't risk it. Must play it safe and get that 40% margin in MI/PA/WI

[Adam Griffin]