To state the obvious, quite a big right wing lead thus far.
Yeah agreed. I think this is caused due to 2 reasons:
1) A bit of malapportionment. While the apportionment is actually fairer than that which Spain uses in real life, in real life because Spain uses PR votes are split more evenly. So for example the 2-4 seat provinces in the Castilles in this project are, for the most part, clean sweeps for the right; while in real life the split tends to be 1-1, 2-1, 2-2 or at worst 3-1
2) Wasted votes for the left in Catalonia/Basque Country. While there are still some areas where the right dominates, Spain's political geography means that the right gets only 15% in the Basque Country and 20% in Catalonia, while the left gets much more than that. End result is a ton of wasted votes in those 2 regions.
So even if I went with a purely proportional allocation, issue number 2 still means that the right would have an advantage.
I actually did a prototype of this project which can be defined as "what is Spain was a US state", with all districts having 710k people. Here is the link to it This hypothetical removes the malapportionment though it still has to keep the bad vote distribution.
End result for said project though was:
24 Safe left
2 Lean Left
1 Lean Right
30 Safe Right
2 Lean Nationalist
8 Safe Nationalist
(26-31-10). So a hung parliament with a right wing plurality
For what is worth I expect the right's lead to narrow eventually, though it will still be a big lead and a solid majority.
Though of course it can't be assumed that vote distribution would be the same under a FPTP system!
