Spain FPTP simulation

[Former President tack50]

Ok, not really sure where to post this, but I have decided to start doing an FPTP simulation of Spain. Not sure how far I will get anyways, but here go some results

First of all, here is the apportionment. I did the apportionment based on a simple rule: 1 seat minimum for each of the 50 provinces+Ceuta and Melilla. Then I did the remaining 298 seats proportionally.

This actually meant that my parliament actually has 349 seats instead of 350 because I did not use D'Hondt or any similar method, I just divided the population by the number of seats. I could have used another method but that was the simplest. If I was going to give out the final seat, it would go to the province of Cáceres (which would have 4 seats as opposed to 3)

This method still means a more proportional representation than the Spanish Congress irl (which uses a minimum of 2 seats per province and not 1).

Anyways here is the apportionment.

Apportionment



Yes, Soria, Ceuta and Melilla are still (barely) entitled to 2 districts each with this method and do not have to resort to being 1 at-large district

I will also note that because of how I am making this maps I am almost certain to have big population deviations between districts, even within a single province but oh well. Doing a project like this is already enough of a pain

Finally in terms of partisanship I will be making educated guesses, though I will just limit myself to Safe/Lean left or right, or Safe/lean nationalist (for Catalonia/Basque Country, where I will just add up the numbers for the nationalists as though they were a third party) I may also use some tossups.

Here is a link to the project as I make it, though I will also upload it to Atlas: https://www.google.com/maps/d/edit?mid=1he7WZ-MxM5sqxdxSrHPJBZLuBJxKJlQL&usp=sharing

[Former President tack50]

Melilla (2 seats)



Melilla Norte: Basically comprises the northern half of the town of Melilla. This is the heavily muslim part of the town, and therefore should be a safe seat for the left.
Safe Left

Melilla Sur: Conversely, this makes up the other half of the town of Melilla. The southern half of town is the majority non-muslim and therefore makes for a very right wing seat.
Safe Right

Totals:
1 Safe Left
1 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

Ceuta (2 seats)



Península de Ceuta: This seat comprises again the heavily non-muslim parts of the Ceuta peninsula and the old town, roughly comprising about half of town. Because of Ceuta voting mostly on religious lines and what not, this is a Safe district for the right
Safe Right

Ceuta interior: On the flip side, this seat represents the half of Ceuta that is closest to the border with Morocco. And as you may expect, this is the more heavily muslim part of town and therefore leans left. However, because of Ceuta having an overall lower muslim population this also takes several non-muslim neighbourhoods in the east, so I think this seat, while leaning left, would certainly be close
Lean Left

Totals
1 Safe Left
1 Lean Left
2 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

Wait so you're creating districts instead of assigning just seats to provinces? That sounds like it'll take a lot of work.

Except in my province, which has 2 districts and literally half of the population lives in the capital city, so that one should be easy.

Also, if it's FPTP, wouldn't that complicate projections a bit? For example, right-leaning places would be won by the PSOE since the right is still split in three.

Yeah, creating districts. And yes it takes a ton of work indeed. I actually started a project like this way back in the day but abandoned it because it was too much work (plus at the time I had no way to split municipalities even in a super approximate basis. Now I think I do). Population deviations will still be huge due to this being very rought and approximate but it still gives an idea of how Spain would look like under FPTP (indeed I am calculating bloc results instead of party results since we'd probably still have a 2 party system under FPTP)

I will start with the smaller provinces and go up from there so I wonder how far I will get tbh. Which means yes, your province will be one of the early ones and probably very simple (tbh thankfully Castille-Leon has a very low population, otherwise it'd be hell with all the tiny villages)

I am doing a "bloc" simulation instead of doing it by party, going off the Eldiario's maps by bloc for the November 2019 election. By party it would actually be slightly easier since the Catalonia/Basque Country results would be a lot easier to calculate rather than just "educated guesses". (there are a couple maps of "secessionists vs unionists" for Catalonia but those do not translate into a 3 way race like I want there though I am open for suggestions)

I would not really look at the party numbers too closely as they are very much educated guesses except in super safe areas. I have no real way to calculate the true party or bloc numbers unless I happen to find municipalities that fit exactly into 1 district. So most of the time I will just make a guess (indeed, I have no real way to know how "Ceuta interior" really voted, it might have voted for the right instead of the left, but I think it voted for the left so it goes into lean left).

Just keep in mind the party identifications will be incredibly rough and pay more attention to the districts themselves I suppose

[Former President tack50]

Soria (2 seats)



Villa de Soria: This is basically just the small town of Soria, the provincial capital. And in probably one of the most surprising results, this small rural Castillan town actually leans left! It is not by much however. Since this is a single municipality I can say this voted for the left 50-46 so the lean is not huge but it is there. Plus this is one of the few results I can be certain of.
Lean left

Campo de Soria: This essencially just is the rural leftovers district, taking in the rest of Soria province. Soria is a relatively left wing province (for rural Castille standards at least) but this district was still won by the right by more than 10 points most likely and is not winnable for the left.
Safe right

Total
1 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
3 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

Teruel (2 seats)



The 3rd province in question is Teruel and I think this is a good example of the problems you face when doing a project like this.

First of all, how do you treat regionalist parties? In this case, for the sake of my sanity I will use the convention Eldiario uses. In this case, they place Teruel Existe alongside the left, so I will treat them as part of the PSOE-UP bloc. This is very inaccurate but there aren't really many alternatives

Also, for the sake of neat districts, I will place the "geographical anomalies" like Ademuz or Treviño in districts outside their province. This means I will place Ademuz as part of Teruel and Treviño as part of Álava, among others.

Anyways here are the districts:

Provincia de Teruel-Sur: This is the Southern two thirds of the province, which are more sparsely populated, including more mountainous areas. However this also includes the provincial capital of Teruel. (The comarcas of Teruel, Albarracín, Javalambre and Maestrazgo). If treating TEx as a separate third bloc, because of their great results in the capital this probably voted for TEx. Merging them into the broader left just creates a safe left district
Safe Left

Provincia de Teruel-Norte: Conversely this is the marginally more densely populated northern third of the province with the other comarcas not mentioned, and is roughly organized along roads N-211 and N-420. This would be an interesting 3 way battle, but merging the left and TEx instead creates yet another safe left district.
Safe Left

Total
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
3 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

Segovia (2 seats)



This is a decent example of how things can get tough to draw. Basically here the town of Segovia is too small, but the partido judicial (the only real division I could find other than the municipalities themselves) is way too large.

End result is I end up drawing a very rough approximation looking at some neighbouring medium sized towns.

This is why the districts in several cases will end up under/overpopulated. I am just not going to bother adding up dozens of rural small towns (I will normally use the comarcas as my building blocks, with few exceptions)

Anyways here are the districts:

Villa y Tierra de Segovia: This comprises the provincial capital of Segovia, as well as several nearby towns along the border with Madrid. I suppose this sort of can function as a weird exurb of Madrid, though it is certainly too far to commute daily to central Madrid. Anyways, because of this it is the more relatively left wing of the 2, though it was still won by the right by like 15 points
Safe Right

Campo de Segovia: The rural leftovers district, this is essencially deep rural Castille, and therefore is deeply conservative. Not much else to see here
Safe Right

Totals
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
5 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

My guess is that you'll be able to draft a Left-leaning district in Valladolid if you combine all the poorer neighborhoods in the north (La Rondilla, Barrio España), east (Pajarillos), and south-east (Delicias) of the city. Also, you may be able to, say, gerrymander them out and create 4 right leaning districts if you were to split them. Not many other important left wing areas in the province.

I mean, I will try to draw mostly fair districts (though if I do draw a gerrymander I will certainly mention it)

Re: Valladolid, I think there will most likely be 2 districts in Valladolid, and one of them is probably competitive though it will depend on how I end up drawing it I suppose. Valladolid city is slightly too big for 2 districts though most likely I will end up overpopulating those 2 and underpopulating the 2 rural ones.

From a quick look at Valladolid, most likely there will be a safe Right district and some form of a competitive district, regardless of how I do my division (of course if Spain was the US, I'd expect Valladolid to just get gerrymandered )

In Castille-Leon at large I suppose there will be probably be 1-2 Left wing seats in Western Leon and as you say possibly 1 competitive district in Valladolid in addition to the surprisingly competitive Soria.

[Former President tack50]

Ávila (2 seats)

This was drawn in a very similar manner to Segovia, so very rough



Ávila-Villa: The town of Ávila plus several neighbouring small towns. Ávila is a super conservative small town, even by rural Castille standards to the left has nothing to do here. I will say though that if applied retroactively this was probably the district that former PM Adolfo Suárez would have represented in Congress. Anyways Safe Right.
Safe Right

Ávila-Sierra de Gredos: This meanwhile is the more rural parts of the province. Again nothing to see here, it is uber conservative rural Castille. This may or may not have been the district former PM Aznar would have hypothetically represented in Congress though. Again Safe Right
Safe Right

Total
3 Safe Left
2 Lean Left
7 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

I recall visiting Avila one evening while studying Spanish in Madrid way back in the 1980's. Beautiful walled town.  Any reason that it is so conservative aside from being in rural Castile?

I cannot really think of anything. Avila is the most right wing province in all of Spain, alongside neighbouring Salamanca and possibly Murcia.

But other than being in rural Castille I cannot think of any reason why it'd be that much more conservative. I suppose it probably comes down to what exact industry dominates the province or something like that, beyond general farming and what not. But I do not have an exact answer.

Ávila is indeed a beautiful walled town inded though

[Former President tack50]

Anyways here go more provinces:

Palencia (2 seats)



Skye's home province and indeed it is just as boring as he promised

Ciudad de Palencia: This comprises just the municipality of the provincial capital of Palencia and nothing else. This is just marginally competitive on paper, being won by the right 54-44, though still safe pretty much
Safe Right

Campo de Palencia: And this is again the rural leftovers district. Not much to see here, just rural Castillian towns as far as the eye can see. Obviously safe for the right
Safe Right


Zamora (2 seats)



Tierra del Pan y el Vino: This probably has the most awesome constituency name in the world (Land of the Bread and the Wine) Anyways this just contains the comarcas of the provincial capital (Tierra del Pan) and the nearby Tierra del Vino comarca for population adjustment. Anyways being rural Castille this is safe for the right
Safe Right

Campo Zamorano: And again this is the rural leftovers district, which this time happens to be a bit awkwardly shaped, taking the border with Portugal and the other end of the province. The more right wing of the 2 districts, this is obviously safe for the right.
Safe Right


Cuenca (2 districts)

This one was a pain to draw since I was drawing almost completely blind. Though I think much harder provinces will eventually come   I ended up finally making it but damn this was a pain, and I still think the western district is very much underpopulated.



La Alcarria-Mancha Conquense: This is Castille-La Mancha and not Castille-Leon, so now the rurals are slightly more left wing. (along many other soon to come districts). If you ever read Don Quixote, this would be  where it takes place. Rural fields with windmills that look like giants and what not. Not like it matters much since this takes pretty much the most right wing areas of the province.
Safe Right

La Manchuela-Serranía de Cuenca: This takes the eastern half of the province, including the Serranía mountains and the provincial capital of Cuenca. While this still voted for the right, it did so by around 7 points most likely. So in some hypothetical left wing wave this could flip, though it is still to right wing and too clear cut for me to categorize this as anything other than safe.
Safe Right


Huesca (2 seats)

The final 2 seater province and finally we get some competitive districts.



Hoya de Huesca: This district essencially takes the more competitive western half of the province, comprising the provincial capital of Huesca, the town of Jaca (close to several ski resorts) and nearby rurals. The left won both Jaca and Huesca very narrowly and also seems to have won on the rurals. So despite what you may expect from a rural district, this district probably votes for the left by a bit. This is probably closer to Tossup than lean, but whatever.
Lean Left

Barbastro, Fraga, Monte Perdido y Monzón: This awkwardly named district takes the eastern half of the province, including most of the Catalan-speaking areas of Aragon. These areas voted for the left but they are tiny so they can be ignored. Meanwhile most population centers here voted for the right by around 6-7 points and the rurals seem evenly split, which leads me to classify this as a Safe Right district, although much like the earlier Cuenca one, it would be competitive and close
Safe Right

Totals
3 Safe Left
3 Lean Left
14 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

With the 2 seater provinces done, it is now time to start with those with 3 seats:

Guadalajara (3 seats, 86k people/seat)

Nothing really special about this province other than the incredibly unequal population distribution, which can be noticed with a simple look at the map.



Guadalajara: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Guadalajara. The suburbs/ of Madrid really end around here, and Guadalajara city itself has a commuter rail (Cercanías) connection to Madrid. Anyways this voted 42-55 for the right and is safe
Safe Right

Azuqueca de Henares: This district comprises pretty much the remaining towns in the "Henares Corridor" that keeps going into Madrid, between Guadalajara city and the provincial border.  This is marginally more left wing than Guadalajara city, but barely so, and is still safe.
Safe Right

Serranía de Guadalajara-Señorío de Aragón: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, and in fact is a strong candidate for the largest district in terms of land area. This is a very sparsely populated rural area with some mountains in the north and east. The easternmost parts of the district, around Molina de Aragón, is surprisingly left wing, though it almost certainly gets outvoted by the rest of the district.
Safe Right


Ourense (3 seats, 103k people/seat)

Again nothing really notable about this province, fairly basic stuff



Ourense: This district comprises the provincial capital of Ourense. Galicia has relatively standard urban vs rural dynamics and therefore this is a safe left district, which went left by 55-44
Safe Left

Carballiño-O Ribeiro: A slightly more interesting district, this essencially takes the rural areas around Ourense, including the rural remainder of Ourense's comarca and that corner of the province. Being this is rural Galicia, this went easily for the right
Safe Right

Verin e Allariz: This takes the remainder of Ourense province, centered around the towns of Allariz and Verin. The eastern parts of this district are surprisingly tight, though the west is just as conservative as you'd expect
Safe Right


La Rioja

This province had some difficulties. First of all, Logroño was entitled to roughly 1.5 districts. Secondly, this is the first time I have had to deal with the issue of communities of interest and road contiguity. I ended up taking a district for the inner 2/3 of Logroño, and then dividing the rest into 2. However my original plan (a "Logroño Outer" and "rural leftovers" districts) had the rural leftovers district non-contiguous by road (other than maybe a few dirt roads)

End result is I had to redo those 2 districts. Nothing major but it shows some difficulties.

The Logroño split also shows why a project like this was not possible until only a year ago or so (traditionally Spanish news outlets did not show result maps by precinct, so you were unable to split municipalities too large to fit into 1 district)

Anyways here is the map



Logroño Centro: This is a tiny bit of a gerrymander, though not a major one. This basically takes the innermost 2/3 of Logroño city, with a bit more so that it touches the border with the Basque Country. These suburbs are almost all right wing (albeit not by that much), and since Logroño at-large was already quite tight to begin with, this district must have been extremely close. I decided to place this as Lean Right, but it must have been extremely competitive
Lean Right

Rioja Alta-Logroño Afueras: This takes the suburbs I took out of Logroño city, as well as the western third of the province. Looks like a bit of a tentacle because well, it is Anyways, this certainly voted for the right
Safe Right

Rioja Baja: Meanwhile this takes the rest of the province, the rural eastern 2/3. La Rioja is a bit more left wing than Castille but again this certainly voted for the right
Safe Right


Lugo



Lugo: As per usual, this takes the provincial capital of Lugo. And much like Ourense and for very similar reasons, this voted for the left although it was slightly competitive at 53-46
Safe Left

A Mariña-Terra Chá: This takes the 3 A Mariña comarcas in Lugo's coast as well as the Terra Chá comarca. The map does not really do it justice as I think I messed up the drawing. Regardless, this district has a very much decent left wing base in the coast while the interior is conservative. I am actually not sure which side won here, this was very much a fair fight. I think the right won but I would not be surprised if the left won either
Lean Right

Ribeira Sacra: Meanwhile this takes the southern and eastern rurals of Lugo province. And unlike the previous district, there is much less of a left wing base here and this voted clearly for the right
Safe Right

Totals
5 Safe Left
3 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
22 Safe Right

[Former President tack50]

I'm following this with interest because I always enjoy hypothetical alignments and have done a few myself. I'm eager to see what happens when you hit the urban and 'localist/separatist' areas like Catalonia, the Basque County, and parts of the Canaries.

Well, for Catalonia/Basque country I think I will essencially just do 3 way races between "the right", "the left" and "the separatists/nationalists". In practice this will make it a lot harder to guess the partisanship of the districts though, but I think is the fairest way to guess the partisanship there.

As for the Canaries, they are in a very awkward position. I really do not know what to do. The easiest solution would probably to just go with April results instead of November, and then merge CC into the right and NCa into the left. Though I could also treat them separately or something.

For what is worth, in Galicia and Teruel I just went with the convention eldiario.es uses (where BNG and TEx got merged into the left). If you separate them the Galicia districts all become quite a bit more right wing and the Teruel ones become interesting 3 way races.

[Former President tack50]

This creates a bit of a problem in Teruel IMO, since Teruel Existe voted for the Sánchez govt. It's true that Tack already packed them with the left ,but if so, the province would have gone from a clear Right win in April to a Left wing landslide in November (Eldiario.es has a swing map that shows this very clearly). It feels unrealistic if you ask me but I understand there may not be a definitive answer to the issue.

Yeah I agree that there is no real definitive answer. The reason I plopped them with the left is simply that simulating 2 way races is much easier than 3 way races. On a 2 way you can just look at the maps provided by several outlets while in 3 way races you have to make much bigger guesses.

If I went with April results, indeed both Teruel districts would be safe for the right (with the northern district a bit more competitive than the Southern one)

And if I did a 3 way race, like I mentioned the southern district would be essencially safe for TEx, while the northern district would be probably a tight 3 way race between PP, PSOE and TEx (I think PSOE narrowly wins but who knows, I'd certainly classify it as a tossup because of a lack of information)

Cantabria will be even worse to do however, as PRC is not strong enough to win any districts I think unless I did some big gerrymanders, so it will be either a left wing sweep or a right wing sweep just depenedent on what I do to PRC's vote. Though I guess I will deal with that when I get there

[Former President tack50]

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.

Well, I treated them as though they were provinces. In which case, they have a population very similar to Soria, so all 3 end up entitled to 2 districts.

When dividing the 298 seats proportionally, you end up with Ceuta and Melilla both entitled to something like 0.52 seats, which rounded up to 1, plus the extra minimum seat means they get 2.

[Former President tack50]

Ok, 2 more provinces today which could not be more different from each other. Also one of them is the first "nationalist" province and it was just as hard as I expected to guess the partisanship, if not harder so take the partisanships I estimated with even more caution except in the super duper safe seats:

Salamanca (3 seats, 110k people/seat)

A bit more challenging than usual to draw do to a lack of information on its comarcas, though it was certainly manegable.



Salamanca: This district comprises just the provincial capital of Salamanca. While Salamanca is a university town of sorts, that means nothing in Spain so it just votes like most other rural Castillian towns and went for the right by something like 20 points.
Safe Right

Sierras de Salamanca-Tierra de Ledesma: This district covers the mountains located on the south, goes along the border with Portugal and then takes the northern parts of the province. This is still rural Castille and it went for the right by a bit more than the urban district.
Safe Right

Campo Charro-Tierra de Peñaranda: This district contains the eastern parts of the province just south of Salamanca. Given the geography I suppose this district must be more agricultural while the other might have a stronger tourism industry and what not (this one is flatter). However that means nothing for the partisanship here
Safe Right


Álava / Araba (3 seats, 111k people/seat)

Well, this is the first nationalist province, and therefore instead of relying on the usual left vs right maps, I have to look at the maps that separate by party and mentally add up the numbers per precinct and what not. Which is uh, very hard lol. In any case this really just affects the estimated partisanship and not the distribution of districts. But take the partisanship with a bit more caution than usual, except in the super safe areas (rural seats in Catalonia/Basque Country; maybe certain staunchly unionist areas in the Bilbao/Barcelona suburbs)

Oh and the distribution of districts is a bit unorthodox here with 3 sets of donuts but I think Vitoria really lends itself better to such a division rather than north/South or East/west, the old town has no real big avenues.



Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

Vitoria-Afueras / Gasteizko kanpoaldea: This comprises the outer parts of the town of Vitoria. Unlike the inner district, this is a straight 2 way race between the left and the nationalists. I think the left is stronger in its districts than the nationalists are in the ones they win in general, so this one goes for the left but it would be even closer here
Lean Left

Cuadrillas de Álava / Arabako kuadrillak: This takes the rural remainder of Álava province. And really, what pushed me over the edge on how to rate the outer Vitoria district was just how packed the nationalists are in here. They won a very big landslide here, so they certainly got very packed in the rural areas (which pushed me to place the other 2 districts to the left). Anyways this is the rural Basque Country and is therefore very much nationalist.
Safe Nationalist

Totals
6 Safe Left
4 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
25 Safe Right
1 Safe Nationalist

[Former President tack50]

Well, here go 3 more provinces, which means I am finally done with all the 3 seater provinces

Burgos (3 districts, 119k people/seat)

A fairly boring province to draw, with interesting results if you look a bit deeper.



Burgos: This district takes in roughly 70% of the provincial capital of Burgos, excluding 30% of peripheral neighbourhoods of the city. These neighbourhoods vote roughly like Burgos city at large really, and the city itself voted for the right by 10 points. Anyways while Burgos is not an overwhelmingly conservative city, it is good enough
Safe Right

Ribera del Duero - Alfoz de Burgos: This district takes the southern parts of Burgos province and then develops a tentacle to get the remaining 30% of Burgos that is not in the city district itself. So yeah this is an ugly district. However being rural Castille it is still a right wing district clearly, though the rurals are slightly more left wing than what you might expect for rural Castille, but it does not really matter
Safe Right

Miranda de Ebro - Las Merindades: This is the northern district meanwhile. The biggest population center here is Miranda de Ebro, located at the tripoint border with La Rioja and the Basque Country, and it is extremely left wing for Castille-Leon standards (went 60-40 for the left). However, Miranda de Ebro by my calculations only really accounts for like 35-40% of the district at most, so it probably gets outvoted by the rurals, which are more conservative than those in the northern district. I was tempted to give this a Lean Right rating, but it is too crystal clear to give it anything other than safe
Safe Right


Albacete (3 districts, 129k people/seat)

Another province which was hard to guess exactly how the seats should go (though interestingly I think the districts are pretty good). It seems Castille-La Mancha is hard to draw



Albacete: Much like the Burgos district, this takes in roughly 70% of the provincial capital of Albacete, excluding some peripheral neighbourhoods. However, since we are now in Southern Spain, it is the urban areas which are the more right wing areas, and therefore this must have gone for the right by like 17 points
Safe Right

Corredor de Almansa-La Manchuela: This takes in the Almansa Corridor and the Manchuela comarca, as well as the remainder of Albacete city. Almansa was essencially a tie here, and the rurals seem to also have been quite contested (though I think the right narrowly wins). However, the 30% or so of Albacete city makes all the difference for the right here
Safe Right

Campo de Montiel: This is the most rural of the 3 districts. It is also probably the most left wing, particularly in the southern parts of the district. However the main population centres here, most notably Hellín, La Roda and Villarobledo; are all quite heavily right wing, so they alongside the less populated right wing areas clearly throw this district to the right, though I suppose back in the 2000s it must have been more competitive and/or could flip in a hypothetical wave
Safe Right


Cáceres (3 districts, 131k people/seat)

The final 3 seater province and it was quite a pain. I found no information about the population of the different comarcas and I was completely lost. Thankfully I did find quite a bit of information and even very nice maps about the partidos judiciales of Cáceres, which are a sort of judicial subdivision of Spain.

In any case, the partidos judiciales exist everywhere in the country, so I suppose they can make for a neat backup option, which I have used here.

I will also note here that this project uses 349 districts instead of the 350 the Spanish Congress actually has. If you want to give out the final seat, it goes here in Cáceres province, getting 4 seats instead of 3. In theory this would force you to make a Plasencia centered district, and the Cáceres based district would lose all the rural areas. in terms of partisanship, this makes the western district safe for the left most likely, while the other 3 districts would be safe for the right.

https://i.snipboard.io/exElIJ.jpg (image link cause it otherwise breaks the site)

Cáceres: This takes the provincial capital of Cáceres, as well as some lightly populated rural areas nearby up to the border with Badajoz to complete a bit its population. Again this is Southern Spain so the "normal" rural vs urban patterns are for the most part reversed. Therefore, Cáceres voted easily for the right (43-55)
Safe Right

Trujillo-Navalmoral de la Mata: This is the eastern district, taking in the partidos judiciales in the southeast of the province as well as parts of that of Plasencia (though excluding the town of Plasencia itself). The rural areas here are mixed to say the least, though the bigger towns in the north of the district vote right. I think this district votes for the right by a small but convincing enough margin.
Safe Right

Plasencia - Valencia de Alcántara: Meanwhile this is the western district along the border with Portugal. The big population center here is certainly Plasencia, which voted for the right by a small but convincing 45-53. However, the rural areas here are more left wing than in the eastern district. In this case, I think the rural areas would outvote Plasencia, though it would be extremely close and it would not surprise me at all if it went right. Still I will put it in the left just barely
Lean left

Totals
6 Safe Left
5 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
33 Safe Right
1 Safe Nationalist

[Former President tack50]

Vitoria-Casco Antiguo / Gasteizko Alde Zaharra: This essencially takes in the innermost parts of Vitoria, including the old town as well as some more modern inner parts of the city in the east, north and south.

Anyways this is essencially a 3 way race. PNV and surprisingly Bildu are very strong in the old medieval town, while the right (both PP and PNV) is very strong in the southern parts of the district. I think this votes for the left, which wins those northern and eastern parts and holds its own in the old medieval town, but it would definitely not be a comfortable margin
Safe Left

From what I've seen, Bildu seems to have a pretty big following in the medieval cores of the cities in the Euskal Herria region. Anyone would like to guess why?

I have absolutely no idea. My guess would be some sort of dynamic like the one that makes the old town of Madrid quite left wing as well (UP is also quite strong in those precincts, getting in 2nd place or at worst a close third). However, the medieval core of a town like Vitoria is a lot smaller than that of Madrid so who knows.

[Former President tack50]

Here goes the first 4 seater province, as well as the first of the 4 Catalonia provinces:

Lleida (4 seats, 109k people/seat)

This was a very easy province to draw even if the results are boring



Lleida: This takes almost all of the provincial capital of Lleida. This district roughly voted 45% Nationalist, 30% for the left and 20% for the right or something along those lines. So it is safe nationalist, though this is certainly the most unionist part of Lleida province (in 2017 it was at just barely above 50% secessionist while Lleida province at large is like 64% secessionist). I actually checked 2016 results and it was a tight 3 way race then, though nationalists have gone up by a lot since then in general elections.
Safe Nationalist

El Segrià: This takes the remainder of the Segrià comarca (the one where the provincial capital of Lleida is located). Lleida is a rural province centered mostly on agriculture, and therefore it is no suprise that its rural districts are very nationalist and in support of independence
Safe Nationalist

Pirineu de Lleida: This takes in the mountainous north of the province in the Pyrinees, along the border with France and Andorra as well as the flatter comarca of la Segarra. Again, rural Catalonia means nationalists win easily here with not much to talk about
Safe Nationalist

L'Urgell: This is the southeastern rural district, centered around small towns like Tarrega, Balaguer and Mollerusa. Again, this is a flat, rural and agricultural district which goes for the nationalists quite easily.
Safe Nationalist

Totals
6 Safe Left
4 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
25 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(10-27-5)

[Former President tack50]

D*mn, that Burgos district is disgusting lmao. Nothing like a US gerrymander, but it's still downright horrible-looking.

In fairness, I did that more out of lazyness more than anything else.

I suppose I could have split the rural areas and the Burgos surroundings some way, but I did not want to count dozens of small towns with like 100 inhabitants

FTR if I was gerrymandering Burgos I'd probably draw some abomination going from Miranda de Ebro to the left wing areas of Burgos city, then draw 2 right wing sinks.

[Former President tack50]

Here go 2 more provinces, one of which is honestly incredibly beautiful as far as districting goes.

León (4 seats, 115k people/seat)



El Bierzo: This takes in the comarca of El Bierzo, which is centered around the town of Ponferrada. This is a part of Leon that is rather culturally different from the rest of Castille-Leon (in fact I believe some rural areas here even speak Galician but don't quote me on that). Therefore while most of Castille-Leon is uniformly right wing. this is extremely left wing. This can almost be seen as a left wing pack of sorts in fact, and is therefore safe left. As a fun fact, if applied retroactively, this would likely be the seat former PM Jose Luis Rodríguez Zapatero would have represented in Congress (he was born in Valladolid and went to college in Leon city but I think he would have represented El Bierzo since it is a safe seat)
Safe Left

León: This takes in just the provincial capital of Leon. And just like all the other provincial capitals in Castille-Leon except Soria, this is a right wing town and voted for the right by 13 points
Safe Right

Las Montañas-Tierra de León: This is the northern rural district, which takes in most of the surroundings of Leon's ""metropolitan area" as well as the mountainous areas to the north. Most people actually live in the southern parts of the district. The rural areas here are actually rather split politically, possibly a bit of spillover from Asturias' left wing mining areas. However, the areas around Leon are still right wing. This would be a relatively competitive district, but is still safe for my ratings
Safe Right

Astorga, La Bañeza y Sahagún: Finally, this is the southern rural district, probably the most culturally Castillian district and the one that resembles the rest of the region the most (Leon province is somewhat distinct from the rest of Castille-Leon, it even has a small regionalist party). Anyways, this is just rural Castillian countryside and votes for the right overwhelmingly, certainly the most conservative district here
Safe Right


Ciudad Real (4 seats, 124k people/seat)

This is by far the most elegant province I have drawn so far. Everything lined up just perfect. The only "downside" if you can call it that is that I used the Partidos Judiciales instead of the comarcas to draw this but really they are also a decent subdivision



Puertollano: This is the southwestern district, centered around the town of Puertollano. And  again, as is typical as you get closer to Andalucia, this rural district is actually narrowly left wing. The bigger population centers here, most notably Puertollano itself, voted for the left by around 2-3 points. There are also right wing areas but the left wing ones outvote them. This creates a district that I am 95% sure went for the left, but which did so by an extremely narrow margin
Lean left

Ciudad Real: This is the northwestern district, centered around the provincial capital of Ciudad Real as well as several rural areas nearby. And here while the rurals are close, Ciudad Real itself is very right wing, voting for the right by like 20 points. Not much to see here
Safe Right

Tomelloso y Alcázar de San Juan: Surprisingly what I thought would be a rural district ended up being the smallest in land area. This takes just the northeastern corner of the province, centered around the 2 towns of Tomelloso and Alcázar de San Juan, each of which has like 25% of the district's population. Alcázar de San Juan narrowly voted for the left, but every other place here outvotes it and they went for the right fairly convincingly
Safe Right

Daimiel y Despeñaperros: This district finally takes the remainder of the eastern half of the province, going from Daimiel National Park to the Despeñaperros mountain pass (which both name this district). In any case, this rural district I think voted for the right by around 10 points
Safe Right

Totals

7 Safe Left
5 Lean Left
2 Lean Right
31 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(12-33-5)

[Former President tack50]

2 more provinces. This also finishes the 4 seater provinces

First of all, I would like to thank Skye for helping quite a bit with Valladolid province by providing me links to several divisions of Valladolid city as designed by their own local town hall. This allowed the partition of Valladolid to be very precise. It will never be perfect but it is a very good partition

Anyways here we go:

Valladolid (4 seats, 130k people/seat)

Skye really helped here with Valladolid city. And really his help mattered quite a bit, as I had almost no information about the rural areas. Thankffully these areas weren't entitled to much but still



Valladolid Sur: This takes in the southern half of Valladolid city, excluding the neighbourhoods to the west of the Pisuerga river. This seems to be the more right wing of the 2 districts and it voted for the right by 40-58. It comprises districts 1, 2, 3, 4 and 11 of the city
Safe Right

Valladolid Norte: Meanwhile this is the northern district of Valladolid, taking in the northern half of the city, except for the neighbourhoods of Parquesol and Girón. Of the 2, this seems to be the more left wing of the 2 and it would be a competitive seat. However the margin is not close enough for me to classify it as anything other than safe as it was still 52-47
Safe Right

Valladolid Oeste - Campo de Peñafiel: This takes in the remainder of Valladolid city that is not in one of the 2 urban districts, as well as the rural areas on the east of the province. This leaves a somewhat awkwardly drawn seat but I think it is still fairly ok. As for votes, rural Castille votes right and the neighbourhoods in question of Valladolid voted for the right by 10-11 points so yeah
Safe Right

Las Tierras de Valladolid: This is essencially the rural leftovers district, taking in essencially the western half of Valladolid province. This is super rural flat farmlands for the most part. I spent 2 weeks in this area in 2017 and it was plenty of fun In any case this is conservative deep Castille regardless
Safe Right


Huelva (4 seats, 130 k people/seat)

Meanwhile Huelva was super easy and super nice to draw, though some of the districts I am unsure of their partisanship.



Huelva: In what seems to be becoming a constant here, this just takes the provincial capital of Huelva. Therefore, this is another district where we can be sure how it voted, and in this case it went right by 3 points (50-47). You could argue this is safe, however, I think 3 points is not enough to call it safe but it is just on the edge. Most certainly a competitive district though
Lean Right

Costa Occidental: This takes the coastal areas on the west of the province, up to the border with Portugal. All places in this district voted right by fairly convincing margins
Safe Right

El Condado de Huelva: This takes in the El Condado comarca as well as a couple municipalities near Huelva. This is an extremely competitive district. All towns here were close and I think they cancel each other. In general the coastal areas near Huelva vote right while the more interior areas vote left. I think the left very, very narrowly won it but it might have been won by the right. It really depends on how packed the left is on the remaining district
Lean Left

El Andévalo - Sierra de Huelva: This takes the rural northern 2/3 of Huelva province. And since this is deep rural western Andalucia, this is an incredibly left wing district and almost feels like a pack. The left probably broke 60% in here or was close to it. In any case, this obiously has gone for the left since time inmemorial and will keep doing so even with the right wing trend of the Spanish South
Safe Left

Totals
8 Safe Left
6 Lean Left
3 Lean Right
36 Safe Right
5 Safe Nationalist
(14-39-5)

[Former President tack50]

Why Ceuta and Melilla are splitted in two districts? Their population is too small and it makes no sense. They are autonomous cities, not provinces.

Well, I treated them as though they were provinces. In which case, they have a population very similar to Soria, so all 3 end up entitled to 2 districts.

When dividing the 298 seats proportionally, you end up with Ceuta and Melilla both entitled to something like 0.52 seats, which rounded up to 1, plus the extra minimum seat means they get 2.

At least Soria has a sizeable territory, while Ceuta and Melilla are tiny enclaves in the Moroccan coast. Personally I would have not splitted the autonomous cities, nor provinces like Soria. The effects of malapportionment can be as damaging as gerrymandering.

Another question, given that you are making a FPTP simulation, why are you calculating block results? It would make sense in a two-round system (see France), but under FPTP the candidates usually run for parties and coalitions, not for "the left" or "the right". Another question is that certain parties agree to run together. like PP+Cs in the Basque Country elections

Well yeah my proposal is most definitely very malapportioned though ironically it is less malapportioned than the current Spanish Congress (tbh I thought about doing no reapportionment and just using the current Congress numbers)

As for block results, in FPTP there will almost always be a 2 party system. If Spain historically used FPTP, UP, Cs and Vox would likely not exist and PSOE+PP would be getting 80% or more of the vote like back in the "good old days".

Calculating party winners is trivial though, and can easily be done if need be tbh. The hard part is drawing the districts. My guesses as of now for the 2 seater provinces for instance would be:

Melilla Norte: CpM
Melilla Sur: PP
Península de Ceuta: Vox
Ceuta Interior: PSOE
Villa de Soria: PSOE
Campo de Soria: PP
Provincia de Teruel-Sur: TEx (2nd place, PSOE)
Provincia de Teruel-Norte: PSOE (2nd place, PP). But really more like a 3 way tossup
Villa y Tierra de Segovia: PSOE (but very close)
Campo de Segovia: PP
Ávila-Villa: PP
Ávila-Sierra de Gredos: PP
Ciudad de Palencia: PSOE
Campo de Palencia: PP
Tierra del Pan y el Vino: PSOE
Campo Zamorano: PP
La Alcarria-Mancha Conquense: PSOE
La Manchuela-Serranía de Cuenca: PSOE
Hoya de Huesca: PSOE
Barbastro, Fraga, Monte Perdido y Monzón: PSOE

[Former President tack50]

Glad I could be of help. But is 52-47 margin safe for a party? lol

You split the city centre (A pretty right wing area) into two districts, and you left the PSOE-friendly Delicias neighborhood in the district with the more right-friendly areas of the city, so you essentially gerrymandered another seat for the right lol. I think that's understandable if you used what the Ayuntamiento calls "districts", which are big, and to be honest, kind of rubbish.

I guess what I would have done differently is that I would have drawn the surrounding "suburban" counties of "metro" Valladolid into one district, and the rest of the rural areas into another. But nice job anyway.

Tbh I am using Lean really more as though it was a tossup category or for things where I just have no idea what to say. It would 100% be competitive and contested of course. Really I expect parties to pay attention to any seats below a 10 point margin.

I could move it to lean as well of course and use 5 points as the frontier from now on.

I decided to go with a north-south division because I was kinda tired of doing inner/outer districts and Valladolid had decent enough north-South divisions; plus of course the districts from the ayuntamiento made it easy

An inner vs outer split instead would as you say create an even safer seat for the right and a lean left outer seat. So I guess I did indeed make a right wing gerrymander there

[Former President tack50]

How are you defining safe? A 52-47 district seems pretty close to me.

Well, I think from now on I will try to be more consistent and use 5 points as the barrier. So 0-5 points=lean and more than 5=safe. I am avoiding tossups tbh- I will say that for most districts, especially those in rural areas or that split cities and doubly so for those in Catalonia/Basque Country, it is very hard to get an accurate partisan estimation. In those cases I just tend to go with a gut feeling if it is close.