German Elections Analysis Megathread
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Astatine
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« on: March 04, 2021, 07:22:31 PM »

Well, I am starting this thread to give a platform for high quality #analysis of German elections, and as there are separate threads for statewide/local and federal elections, I chose to create a separate one... I try to keep it updated from time to time, and ofc other German election nerds are invited to share their analyses as well.

Well, the first topic is gonna be...

INCUMBENCY

I chose to do this instead of studying for my oral exam on Wednesday, so yeah... I tried to make it a bit 538-like with their nice arrows and fancy regressions.



So, how did I come to this values? Well, overperformance is hard to determine, so I chose the following methodology: Calculate the average result of the last 3 federal elections for the respective party both nationwide and statewide (for instance, Hamburg had an average SPD result of 27.8 % while the nationwide average was 23.1 %, so Hamburg's SPD would get 120 % of the nationwide polling under neutral circumstances - I know this is a bit flawed, but hardly possible otherwise), multiply it with the most recent Infratest result nationwide ahead of the election (for consistency) and compare it with the actual result - That's the overperformance.

I plotted it against the approval rating of the incumbent (Infratest is my data source, if there was no number available I used "good Minister-President" or matchup polling), and voila: There is a correlation. I didn't bother to go beyond 2013 tho.

Out of 7 incumbents who underperformed their expected result, 4 didn't get reelected (or resigned) and the other one who failed in getting another term just barely overperformed the expected result. Every incumbent who had approval ratings above 63 % had a party overperformance of at least +6.0 compared to the expected result and no incumbent with approval ratings below 50 % had a significant incumbency bonus. Some outliers (like Söder or Tschentscher) might be explained with the somewhat flawed methodology, as the CSU in Bavaria or the SPD in Hamburg have some residual strengths in the respective states regularly overperforming their "expected" lean.
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