Vladimir Putin Gets to Stay in Power for (At Least) Another Sixteen Years

[Omega21]

He’ll be 83 in 16 years wtf

Just old enough to go and become a candidate in the US!

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1279428405084241920

Russia will not invade Ukraine.

The only reason they annexed Crimea is that it was easy, the people there overwhelmingly identify as Russians, so even if the annexation was not right in any sense, the people didn't exactly rebel, so it was just a case of going in and handling the international community response later.

The 2 self-proclaimed "nations" in the East are politically radioactive as well, and Russia cannot afford officially annexing them.

[Omega21]

He’ll be 83 in 16 years wtf

Just old enough to go and become a candidate in the US!

https://twitter.com/IntelCrab/status/1279428405084241920

Russia will not invade Ukraine.

The only reason they annexed Crimea is that it was easy, the people there overwhelmingly identify as Russians, so even if the annexation was not right in any sense, the people didn't exactly rebel, so it was just a case of going in and handling the international community response later.

The 2 self-proclaimed "nations" in the East are politically radioactive as well, and Russia cannot afford officially annexing them.

My sense is Russia will de facto rule the eastern parts of Ukraine with a significant Russian population for years to come. Doesn't take an actual invasion through official combat forces. The Kremlin will keep this as a so called "frozen conflict" similar to Transnistria and the West has little cards to play other than imposing sanctions. The Ukrainian govt has de facto lost control over that region years ago and they made a number of serious blunders by blocking reforms for a new federal structure and prohibiting the Russian language.

Oh, I most definitely agree.

Crimea is already an internationally unrecognized part of Russia, while the other 2 regions will most likely stay under Russian control, even though they don't officially claim it.

I'm not sure if autonomy for the Russian regions and an official language would have prevented this, but I would have always supported that option more than what actually happened.