MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Gianforte +10

[Pollster]

Link

June 17-26, 517 registered voters, MOE 4.31%

Gianforte 46
Cooney 36
Don't know 18

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

seems a little odd that Bullock would be up in this but not Cooney.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

seems a little odd that Bullock would be up in this but not Cooney.

Bullock is probably getting a massive boost for his handling of COVID-19. Cooney benefits less from this.

[Mexican Wolf]

Well, that's a bit concerning. Hopefully, Cooney can pick up a large number of the undecided voters, as well as most of the voters currently favoring Bullock.

[YE]

How the hell is Cooney only at 36%?

[MT Treasurer]

seems a little odd that Bullock would be up in this but not Cooney.

Why? There is no way Cooney will underperform Bullock by this much (or that he’ll lose by even close to this margin) but a Gianforte/Bullock split outcome would be more likely than not if the election were held today.

[Xing]

Unlikely, but Bullock overperforming Cooney (by less than this) is obviously plausible.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Folks, we are gonna have split voting, Bullock will win while Cooney loses and Cooper can win while Cunningham loses

[President Johnson]

How the hell is Cooney only at 36%?

My guess would be name recognition. Gianforte is more known since he ran in 2016 and is in congress. I think Cooney can win this race.

[YE]

How the hell is Cooney only at 36%?

My guess would be name recognition. Gianforte is more known since he ran in 2016 and is in congress. I think Cooney can win this race.

Cooney has been elected to the state many times in the past though IIRC.

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

Cooney for sure would be a decent gov, but I think his problem is being a career politician. MT voters don't seem to like them too much regardless of party. I know that Tester has been in office for a while, but he's more seen like the farmer who happens to be a Dem senator rather than a career politician. The race will likely end up closer than 10 pts, but I think this one will flip despite Gianforte being a horrible person.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Lean R.

Cooney for sure would be a decent gov, but I think his problem is being a career politician. MT voters don't seem to like them too much regardless of party. I know that Tester has been in office for a while, but he's more seen like the farmer who happens to be a Dem senator rather than a career politician. The race will likely end up closer than 10 pts, but I think this one will flip despite Gianforte being a horrible person.

If Bullock wins, a 10 pt deficit isnt hard to overcome by Cooney. Same with MO, a wave can pull Galloway over the finish line.

Molly Kelly came back on Sununu in a D plus 8 election,  the  election is Nov

[Sir Mohamed]

Lean R.

Cooney for sure would be a decent gov, but I think his problem is being a career politician. MT voters don't seem to like them too much regardless of party. I know that Tester has been in office for a while, but he's more seen like the farmer who happens to be a Dem senator rather than a career politician. The race will likely end up closer than 10 pts, but I think this one will flip despite Gianforte being a horrible person.

If Bullock wins, a 10 pt deficit isnt hard to overcome by Cooney. Same with MO, a wave can pull Galloway over the finish line.

Molly Kelly came back on Sununu in a D plus 8 election,  the  election is Nov

Bullock ending up victorious doesn't automatically mean Cooney wins, too. In 2018, both Tester and Gianforte won on the same ballot. I can easily forsee a scenario where Bullock defeats Daines a narrow 49-47%, while Gianforte beats Cooney with about the same margin or slightly more.

[MT Treasurer]

Lean R.

Cooney for sure would be a decent gov, but I think his problem is being a career politician. MT voters don't seem to like them too much regardless of party. I know that Tester has been in office for a while, but he's more seen like the farmer who happens to be a Dem senator rather than a career politician. The race will likely end up closer than 10 pts, but I think this one will flip despite Gianforte being a horrible person.

Yeah, Gianforte is pretty much replicating Rick Scott's 2018 playbook (outspending Cooney by close to 4-1, defining him early, running a "job creator vs. career politician" campaign, rapidly exploiting Cooney's missteps, etc.). I never bought him being an easier opponent for Democrats than Daines or even the almighty Fox.

Also, it’s not like Tester wasn’t beatable in 2018.

[Badger]

Damn it.