MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Trump +14

[wbrocks67]

Eh, I'd be very surprised if given a possible Biden 8-12 environment nationally that he's only doing marginally better than HRC.

[wbrocks67]

Eh, I'd be very surprised if given a possible Biden 8-12 environment nationally that he's only doing marginally better than HRC.

A 7-point difference would strike me as a little low in MT in that environment, but it would still be significant. It would probably mean he's simply not overperforming especially strongly in a rural state.

Given Montana's elasticity, it just seems hard for me to believe, especially with Bullock on the ticket too.

[wbrocks67]

Trump’s not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (I’d expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isn’t winning by 10 either.

Do you think Biden might come within single digits in Montana?

If he's winning by nearly double digits, I wouldn't be surprised if Montana is easily single digits.

[wbrocks67]

This same poll had Trump +22 in February.

... they had him at higher than his 2016 win in February? Hmmm