MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Trump +14
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October 20, 2021, 05:42:51 AM

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  MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Trump +14
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Author Topic: MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Trump +14  (Read 1459 times)
Pollster
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« on: July 01, 2020, 07:39:41 PM »

Link

June 17-26, 517 registered voters, MOE 4.31%

Trump 52
Biden 38
Don't know 10
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #1 on: July 01, 2020, 09:59:00 PM »

Link

June 17-26, 517 registered voters, MOE 4.31%

Trump 52
Biden 38
Don't know 10

Biden looks to be on track to do better here than Clinton did in 2016, when she got only 35%. It's possible that he might clear the 40% mark, like Obama did in 2012. Montana is obviously still Likely/Safe Republican at the presidential level, but Trump's reduced margin will also be of aid to Steve Bullock in his Senate race.
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Epaminondas
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« Reply #2 on: July 01, 2020, 10:15:47 PM »

In line with 2012 results, which was Romney +14
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krb08
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« Reply #3 on: July 01, 2020, 10:38:31 PM »

I thought Biden would be doing better than this tbh. Would've expected Trump +10.

Montana loves swinging against the incumbent party, but if this were the result, Montana would actually trend to the right vs. the country, considering we're in a Biden +10 national environment right now.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #4 on: July 01, 2020, 11:00:02 PM »

Biden definitely needs to do a rural Western tour sometime after the Convention, and hit places such as  Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Salt Lake City UT, and maybe do a stop-over on some Native Land while on his way to AZ & NM....

Native Americans dumped heavily on HRC because of her support for Keystone, which Obama backed...

Tons of Western Enviro type folks who would have been more than happy to support Sanders but are "undecided" in places like Missoula, etc....

Trump is no Reagan, and the "Sagebrush Rebellion" is pretty much maxed out for the PUB's from Southeast Oregon to Eastern Montana....

Maybe time for Biden to show up occasionally and speak to how climate change is exacerbating "Forest Fires" and "Brush Fires" throughout the Western States, impact to sports fishing, toss in support for fair pricing for Seniors when it comes to prescription medications, esp in places where folks can go over the border (once Canada let's us back in) for much cheaper prices compared to what Big Pharma charges US Citizens who paid taxes to subsidize their drugs....

Granted, Biden shouldn't camp too long in MT bcs it might cause a few issues for Bullock, but neglecting rural and small town Western Populations aren't gonna help with the street cred, especially if Trump is whacking Biden as somehow being "an out of touch Northeastern Liberal"....
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vitoNova
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« Reply #5 on: July 02, 2020, 02:07:49 AM »

Sounds about right.  Welfare state where 90% of their well-being comes from the United States Chair Force, due to the 200+ nuclear intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) scattered across the state.

Heightened aggression with China benefits the state. 

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Tsaiite
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« Reply #6 on: July 02, 2020, 02:43:30 AM »

Biden definitely needs to do a rural Western tour sometime after the Convention, and hit places such as  Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Salt Lake City UT, and maybe do a stop-over on some Native Land while on his way to AZ & NM....

Native Americans dumped heavily on HRC because of her support for Keystone, which Obama backed...

Tons of Western Enviro type folks who would have been more than happy to support Sanders but are "undecided" in places like Missoula, etc....

Trump is no Reagan, and the "Sagebrush Rebellion" is pretty much maxed out for the PUB's from Southeast Oregon to Eastern Montana....

Maybe time for Biden to show up occasionally and speak to how climate change is exacerbating "Forest Fires" and "Brush Fires" throughout the Western States, impact to sports fishing, toss in support for fair pricing for Seniors when it comes to prescription medications, esp in places where folks can go over the border (once Canada let's us back in) for much cheaper prices compared to what Big Pharma charges US Citizens who paid taxes to subsidize their drugs....

Granted, Biden shouldn't camp too long in MT bcs it might cause a few issues for Bullock, but neglecting rural and small town Western Populations aren't gonna help with the street cred, especially if Trump is whacking Biden as somehow being "an out of touch Northeastern Liberal"....

Even as a low-ley believer in Bluetah, I can't think of many less constructive ways for Biden to rack up electoral votes than hang out in the rural Mountain West. Perhaps some time in rural Arizona and the Navajo Reservation could help, but that's about it.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #7 on: July 02, 2020, 05:00:44 AM »

Eh, I'd be very surprised if given a possible Biden 8-12 environment nationally that he's only doing marginally better than HRC.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: July 02, 2020, 05:04:11 AM »

Eh, I'd be very surprised if given a possible Biden 8-12 environment nationally that he's only doing marginally better than HRC.

A 7-point difference would strike me as a little low in MT in that environment, but it would still be significant. It would probably mean he's simply not overperforming especially strongly in a rural state.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: July 02, 2020, 05:09:54 AM »

Eh, I'd be very surprised if given a possible Biden 8-12 environment nationally that he's only doing marginally better than HRC.

A 7-point difference would strike me as a little low in MT in that environment, but it would still be significant. It would probably mean he's simply not overperforming especially strongly in a rural state.

Given Montana's elasticity, it just seems hard for me to believe, especially with Bullock on the ticket too.
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MillennialModerate
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« Reply #10 on: July 02, 2020, 05:13:38 AM »

Would be really hard for Bullock to win this with Trump by 14.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #11 on: July 02, 2020, 05:17:45 AM »

Would be really hard for Bullock to win this with Trump by 14.

He had a 24 point advantage over the presidential Democrat's margin in 2016. It wouldn't be easy to get a 14 point advantage at the federal level, but it could be done.
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Skye
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« Reply #12 on: July 02, 2020, 05:19:49 AM »

Biden definitely needs to do a rural Western tour sometime after the Convention, and hit places such as  Billings, MT, Boise, ID, Salt Lake City UT, and maybe do a stop-over on some Native Land while on his way to AZ & NM....

Native Americans dumped heavily on HRC because of her support for Keystone, which Obama backed...

Tons of Western Enviro type folks who would have been more than happy to support Sanders but are "undecided" in places like Missoula, etc....

Trump is no Reagan, and the "Sagebrush Rebellion" is pretty much maxed out for the PUB's from Southeast Oregon to Eastern Montana....

Maybe time for Biden to show up occasionally and speak to how climate change is exacerbating "Forest Fires" and "Brush Fires" throughout the Western States, impact to sports fishing, toss in support for fair pricing for Seniors when it comes to prescription medications, esp in places where folks can go over the border (once Canada let's us back in) for much cheaper prices compared to what Big Pharma charges US Citizens who paid taxes to subsidize their drugs....

Granted, Biden shouldn't camp too long in MT bcs it might cause a few issues for Bullock, but neglecting rural and small town Western Populations aren't gonna help with the street cred, especially if Trump is whacking Biden as somehow being "an out of touch Northeastern Liberal"....

Why? None of those states are going to be won by Biden. He needs to be in places he *can* win.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #13 on: July 02, 2020, 06:47:35 AM »

Would be really hard for Bullock to win this with Trump by 14.

No
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MT Treasurer
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« Reply #14 on: July 02, 2020, 07:39:02 AM »

Trumpís not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (Iíd expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isnít winning by 10 either.
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Pollster
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« Reply #15 on: July 02, 2020, 09:07:19 AM »

In line with 2012 results, which was Romney +14

2012 was also Tester +4, which is exactly by how much Bullock leads here.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #16 on: July 02, 2020, 09:08:03 AM »

Trumpís not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (Iíd expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isnít winning by 10 either.

Do you think Biden might come within single digits in Montana?
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #17 on: July 02, 2020, 09:22:50 AM »

Trumpís not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (Iíd expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isnít winning by 10 either.

Do you think Biden might come within single digits in Montana?

If he's winning by nearly double digits, I wouldn't be surprised if Montana is easily single digits.
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BobbieMac
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« Reply #18 on: July 02, 2020, 11:02:06 AM »

This would put Biden at +9 nationally on UNS.

So not exactly a massive outlier.
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Beef
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« Reply #19 on: July 02, 2020, 11:23:15 AM »

This same poll had Trump +22 in February.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #20 on: July 02, 2020, 11:25:43 AM »

This same poll had Trump +22 in February.

... they had him at higher than his 2016 win in February? Hmmm
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Beef
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« Reply #21 on: July 02, 2020, 11:27:22 AM »

Trumpís not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (Iíd expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isnít winning by 10 either.

Montana was 22 points to the right of the nation in 2016. If Biden is leading by 8, Trump winning MT by 14 would be a net zero trend. Do you think MT will trend to the left by that much?
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Beef
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« Reply #22 on: July 02, 2020, 11:34:03 AM »

This same poll had Trump +22 in February.

... they had him at higher than his 2016 win in February? Hmmm

1. Biden was dead in the water in February, and that probably weakened his favorability as a GE candidate.

2. This was right after Trump's acquittal, and the stock market was riding a string of record highs. His job approval stood at 44/51, which for Trump is pretty good.
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TML
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« Reply #23 on: July 02, 2020, 11:39:44 AM »

Trumpís not winning Montana by 14 in this environment (Iíd expect this kind of margin in a very close election, but not when Democrats are consistently leading by high single digits nationally), and Gianforte isnít winning by 10 either.

Montana was 22 points to the right of the nation in 2016. If Biden is leading by 8, Trump winning MT by 14 would be a net zero trend. Do you think MT will trend to the left by that much?

Remember that Bush 43 won MT by over 20% in each of his elections, yet that didn't prevent it from swinging more than 10% to the left in 2008.
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Mr. MANDELA BARNES
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« Reply #24 on: July 02, 2020, 11:58:41 AM »

Bullock is the best recruit we have had a Senate majority goes thru MT, just like it did in 2014
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