MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4 (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
March 28, 2024, 10:04:24 AM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2020 Senate & House Election Polls
  MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4 (search mode)
Pages: [1]
Author Topic: MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4  (Read 1840 times)
Epaminondas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,742


« on: July 01, 2020, 10:29:07 PM »

Bullock running ahead of Biden by almost 20 points, what a mensch.

Splitting (or ignoring) the undecided yields 52-48, which is in line with Bullock's 3 previous wins: 52.6% (2008), 49% (2012), 50.3% (2016)
Logged
Epaminondas
Jr. Member
***
Posts: 1,742


« Reply #1 on: July 03, 2020, 10:37:56 AM »

A generic point I would make is for 3 cycles in a row now, Republicans have done better in the Senate then the summer polling indicated, 2014, 2016 and 2018, for whatever reason there are a lot of of soft republicans in red states that come home late, and this causes the margin to be tighter or even flips the race, here are some polls from the summer of 2018.

Oddly, you do seem to be on to something, specifically about June.
This also checked out in 2018 with Tester (+8 in June), Manchin (+11 in June), and Donnelly (+12 in June!).

Oddly Bill Nelson escaped this (Scott led by +4 throughout the summer), for all the good it did him.

I suspect the reason is that olders voters are more reliable voters for the Senate than younger voters, since they understand it outsize importance in shaping the courts.
Given the current age discrepancy between parties, this advantages the GOP.
Logged
Pages: [1]  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.02 seconds with 13 queries.