MT-UM Big Sky Poll: Bullock +4

[MT Treasurer]

Not the best poll (although it seems like they’ve improved since 2018), but I have a feeling people still don’t realize just how vulnerable Daines actually is. This is Democratic pick-up no. 3 after CO and AZ IMO, and the fact that Bullock is leading by 4 in a poll which has Gianforte ahead by 10 (uh-uh) and Trump winning by 14 is honestly devastating.

[MT Treasurer]

Actually, Daines was the only Republican who flipped a Democratic Senate seat in 2014 who didn’t outperform the RCP average in November. The Tester +8 poll Epaminondas is referring to was a Gravis poll which also had Williams ahead by 6, which was at no point the state of the House race.

In fact, high-quality private polling done by the Tester campaign never showed the fluctuations we saw in public polling. It was always a narrow but consistent advantage for Tester, which is exactly what we’re seeing right now.

In terms of his background, the media coverage he has received, and the tactical shrewdness and effectiveness of his political operation, Bullock is probably in a better position than any Democrat in a competitive Senate race. The state has seen a spike in COVID-19 cases, and while that entails some risks for Bullock, the increasing likelihood that this issue will just overshadow everything else all the way until election day certainly benefits him more than Daines. Another thing I’d add is that Republican national + outside groups only got involved relatively late (too late, foolishly) in the 2018 race, but this kind of disparity in spending/advertisement/etc. is absent from this campaign, so the fact that Daines isn’t polling better than Rosendale is a daunting sign for Republicans.

I have a feeling that the posters who are expecting Daines to pull away once "polarization" suddenly kicks in in September are going to be very disappointed. I’d at least be more open to this "Republicans will come home" argument if this was WY or OK or some other deep red state with no recent history of sending Democrats to the Senate/state capital or if this was obviously a Democratic-friendly poll, but Trump +14 and Gianforte +10 certainly doesn’t suggest that this poll is overestimating Republican strength. In fact, I (unironically) have my grandpa's tractor to sell to you if you seriously think Gianforte will win by 10 points.