CO (PPP) - Biden +17

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Biden - 56
Trump - 39
Undecided - 5

Trump's favorability is 39-55, Biden's is 46-42. This is from a Clinton +7 sample.
 
840 V, June 29-30
https://endcitizensunited.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/07/ColoradoResults1.pdf

[Person Man]

I can almost believe that now.

[Roll Roons]

So I guess the Democrat does have a real shot in CO-03.

[Tender Branson]

If you look at the primary figures from yesterday, this makes sense.

CO is not lean D, it’s Tungsten D.

[The Mikado]

If you didn't already update CO from Likely D to Solid, now's the time to do so.

[OneJ]

As I've already suspected, I believe Colorado will vote to the left of Virginia.

[MT Treasurer]

The swings/trends in the West are going to be really ugly for the GOP this year even if Trump's standing improves nationally. I also think MT is the best Democratic pick-up opportunity in the Senate after AZ/CO.

[WD]

Also Gardner is beyond DOA with these numbers. Hickenlooper’s “scandals” don’t mean anything if the top of the ticket is losing by almost 20 points.

[Hope For A New Era]

Cory Gardner = Blanche Lincoln

[Minnesota Mike]

As much as I would like to I don't believe Biden +17 quite yet but it's clear Colorado is safe D on the presidential level and likely D in the Senate.

[Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist]

Underrated chance that Colorado actually votes left of New Mexico this year.

[krb08]

Always thought Virginia would vote to the left of Colorado before the last few months of polling. I'm surprised at how consistently wide Biden's margin is considering Clinton won it by less than 5 points.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

MoE 3.4% according to Grace Panetta.

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Underrated chance that Colorado actually votes left of New Mexico this year.

My model has Biden doing 1.4 points better in CO than NM, but both vote for him by over 10 points.

[President Johnson]

Trump could very well end up with less than 40% here. I think he'll break into the low 40s, but Colorado usually has a relatively high share of third party votes. Joe Biden will most likely end up anywhere between 53 and 57%.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

dude

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Gotta love the whole neutral question, neutral question, neutral question... then POW!!

Last year, the House of Representatives
passed HR1 – the biggest anti-corruption bill in
history that will crack down on corruption in
both parties. Mitch McConnell, supported by
Cory Gardner, has refused to allow an up or
down vote on this bill, which would prevent
politicians from profiting off their offices by
strengthening ethics laws and lobbying rules,
limiting the influence of wealthy donors, and
stopping secret corporate money from boosting
their campaigns. Do you support or oppose
HR1?

[Pollster]

Upsetting that they didn't include crosstabs for Congressional district (which are in the toplines), as that could have shed some light on CO-03.

[Alben Barkley]

It's time we stop considering Colorado a "swing state," even a marginal one. FiveThirtyEight still lists it as one and yet the AVERAGE lead for Biden is now over 17 points. The average lead for Trump in Kansas is 9 points and in Missouri is 2.5 points. If Colorado is a swing state, those definitely are as well.

And the comparisons between Gardner and Blanche Lincoln are apt, because CO is definitely pulling a reverse Arkansas.

[Frozen Sky Ever Why]

I wonder who was angrier, non college educated whites in 2016 or college educated whites in 2020?

[Calthrina950]

Colorado is gone for Republicans at the presidential level, and very soon, it will be at the statewide level as well. Biden stands a good chance of obtaining the best performance any Democrat has here since Lyndon Johnson. And it's clear from this that Cory Gardner is beyond dead. "Luck" for Republicans would be to come within single digits at this point.

[Hope For A New Era]

Always thought Virginia would vote to the left of Colorado before the last few months of polling. I'm surprised at how consistently wide Biden's margin is considering Clinton won it by less than 5 points.

I imagine a big contributor is Douglas County realigning. Very wealthy, educated, suburban, ancestrally Republican. Probably lots of people who were “willing to give him a chance” and then regretted it.

Probably a bit of the same in El Paso County (Colorado Springs). One of the last urban counties that still votes R.

[Calthrina950]

Always thought Virginia would vote to the left of Colorado before the last few months of polling. I'm surprised at how consistently wide Biden's margin is considering Clinton won it by less than 5 points.

I imagine a big contributor is Douglas County realigning. Very wealthy, educated, suburban, ancestrally Republican. Probably lots of people who were “willing to give him a chance” and then regretted it.

Probably a bit of the same in El Paso County (Colorado Springs). One of the last urban counties that still votes R.

You are correct. El Paso County has trended to the left since the turn of the century, and so has Douglas County. Both counties are still Republican bastions (for now), but given ongoing demographic and political changes, I could easily see them becoming tossups within the next few decades, and ultimately shifting Democratic. In El Paso County in particular (where I live), there is a growing and vocal progressive minority, and their electoral influence will undoubtedly continue to increase.

[Lief 🗽]

Biden's probably winning CO-03 with these numbers right? Maybe we could actually pick it up versus that QAnon lunatic woman.

[💥💥 brandon bro (he/him/his)]

There is nothing surprising about this.

So I guess the Democrat does have a real shot in CO-03.

Outside of Grand Junction I'm still not seeing where the new D voters are coming from. CO-03's Democratic base is all from ski and resort towns (Steamboat, Durango, Telluride, Aspen, ...) and those places have been B to the W against Trump since 2016. Maybe we'll see some attrition in some mid-sized Western Slope towns (including Glenwood).