1000 Congressional Districts
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weatherboy1102
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« Reply #25 on: July 08, 2020, 06:40:37 PM »

Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.
I tried recreating the districts and got District 1's PVI as R+3.6, which is Lean R. All others were over R+18
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #26 on: July 08, 2020, 08:35:33 PM »

Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.
I tried recreating the districts and got District 1's PVI as R+3.6, which is Lean R. All others were over R+18
Idaho should have options in DRA 2020. PVI might be the best since 2008 was a good while ago.

You are right, the PVI would probably be more representative of reality. Even I initially inserted the PVI but then I removed it so as not to distort it from other states. Regarding the 1st, despite the PVI R + 3, I believe that in 2018 he would have flipped, even because Trump lost Boise.

Presuming a good candidate runs in District 3, it could flip. I'd rate it Likely R.

You say the 3rd District of West Virginia? I assume it could be Likely in a Trump midterm, but by 2020 I think it would be less likely to have an upset. What do you think?


Thanks!
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« Reply #27 on: July 09, 2020, 10:15:06 AM »

First, great work. This is really fun to follow. My only problem is that the district maps aren't loading. Is there any way you could post the DRA link along with the post?
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #28 on: July 09, 2020, 12:44:34 PM »

First, great work. This is really fun to follow. My only problem is that the district maps aren't loading. Is there any way you could post the DRA link along with the post?

Strange, for me the photos appear normal.
But I will leave here the links to the DRA.
And thank you for following the posts!

Wyoming - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::5eb59115-0f74-4f41-a72b-a3a0d5441c74

Vermont - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fa767b29-3779-4141-8279-40f53f5c88d4

North Dakota - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::27305cf0-3539-45f4-a2ba-19b79cf1117a

Alaska - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a84e065-918e-48c5-929a-6349ba0c1bda

South Dakota - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::2a84e065-918e-48c5-929a-6349ba0c1bda

Delaware - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::8dc46f01-d226-4c0a-873c-4b7f8e6f9a0d

Montana - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::448b9003-461d-4eee-9aae-4133408e7cd5

Rhode Island - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::fac9a62e-935d-4a60-89d0-a6c38ca8f8d2

New Hampshire - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f89ae558-e446-45f4-9c32-f8c74d42e6bc

Hawaii - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::601369ec-4b10-4875-b029-54b63910580d

Maine - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::87d573f0-df6c-425f-b952-0b0cb3fa284a

Idaho - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::6c89a68a-df3d-4871-9568-1422a6e38214

Nebraska - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::f885e6f8-c4c8-4064-957c-2627d3642e97

West Virginia - https://davesredistricting.org/maps#viewmap::7976a305-3be7-43dc-833c-3504fff89085
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #29 on: July 09, 2020, 03:39:15 PM »
« Edited: July 10, 2020, 12:09:14 PM by Adriano Chiká »

New Mexico:


New Mexico


Albuquerque

District 1:
PVI – D+5
President 2016: Clinton +14%
President 2008: Obama +11%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +20%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +29%


District 2:
PVI – D+14
President 2016: Clinton +27%
President 2008: Obama +35%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +35%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +41%


District 3:
PVI – R+1
President 2016: Trump +3%

President 2008: Obama +10%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +3%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +14%


District 4:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +7%

President 2008: Obama +2%
Governor 2018: Pearce +0.5%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +9%

District 5:
PVI – D+20
President 2016: Clinton +40%
President 2008: Obama +46%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +46%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +51%


District 6:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Governor 2018: Pearce +30%
Senator 2018: Rich +16%


District 7:
PVI – EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +3%
President 2008: Obama +6%
Governor 2018: Lujan Grisham +7%
Senator 2018: Heinrich +13%



The 1st and 2nd districts cover the city of Albuquerque, the largest in the state. The 3rd covers the rest of the county of Bernalillo to the extreme south of the state, in the county of Hidalgo. The 4th District covers the northwest of the state.

The 5th District covers northern New Mexico, as well as the city of Santa Fe, and is the most democratic district in the state. The 6th District covers the west of the state, with Roswell as its largest city, and is the most republican in the state. The 7th is in southern New Mexico, with Las Cruces as its largest city.


District 1 – Likely D in 2020
Michelle Lujan Grisham (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018 to run for governor
Damon Martinez (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), elected in 2018

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Hector Balderas (D-Albuquerque/Bernalillo), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Dianne Hamilton (R-Silver City/Grant), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Howie Morales (D-Silver City/Grant), elected in 2018

District 4 – Lean R in 2020
William Sharer (R-Farmington/San Juan), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Ben Ray Lujan (D-Santa Fe), first elected in 2008.

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Pearce (R-Hobbs/Lea), first elected in 2002, retired in 2018 to run for Governor
Jim Townsend (R-Artesia/Eddy), elected in 2018.

District 7 – Tossup in 2020
Yvette Herrell (R-Alamogordo/Otero), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2016
Xochitl Torres Small (D-Las Cruces/Dona Ana), elected in 2016



Total:
2016 – GOP 38 x DEM 18
2018 – GOP 30 x DEM 26 (D+8)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #30 on: July 10, 2020, 03:41:02 PM »
« Edited: July 14, 2020, 11:32:18 AM by Adriano Chiká »

Nevada:
 


Nevada


Las Vegas


Reno

District 1:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Trump +9%

President 2008: Obama +3%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +4%
Senator 2018: Heller +3%
Senator 2016: Heck +8%


District 2:
PVI – D+10
President 2016: Clinton +19%
President 2008: Obama +27%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +22%
Senator 2018: Rosen +23%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +20%


District 3:
PVI – D+6
President 2016: Clinton +13%
President 2008: Obama +21%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +18%
Senator 2018: Rosen +18%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +12%


District 4:
PVI – D+21
President 2016: Clinton +42%
President 2008: Obama +41%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +41%
Senator 2018: Rosen +44%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +44%


District 5:

PVI – D+18
President 2016: Clinton +35%
President 2008: Obama +41%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +36%
Senator 2018: Rosen +38%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +35%


District 6:
PVI – D+1
President 2016: Clinton +4%
President 2008: Obama +11%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +7%
Senator 2018: Rosen +8%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +4%


District 7:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +17%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +28%
Senator 2018: Heller +28%
Senator 2016: Heck +29%


District 8:
PVI – D+4
President 2016: Clinton +9%
President 2008: Obama +19%
Governor 2018: Sisolak +11%
Senator 2018: Rosen +12%
Senator 2016: Cortez Masto +7%


District 9:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +23%
President 2008: McCain +4%
Governor 2018: Laxalt +23%
Senator 2018: Heller +22%
Senator 2016: Heck +23%



Nevada's 1st District covers the southern portion of the state and Clark County, the largest city in the district being Henderson. Districts 2 °, 3 °, 4 °, 5 ° and 6 ° cover Las Vegas and its surrounding regions. The 2nd is almost entirely centered on Paradise. The 3rd covers Enterprise and Spring Valley. The 4th covers the east end of Las Vegas, in addition to Sunrise Manor and an extensive strip north over Henderson. The 5th covers a central portion of Las Vegas, as well as the city of North Las Vegas. The 6th occupies most of the city of Las Vegas, as well as Summerlin South.

The 7th District is the largest in the state, covering a northern portion of the city of Las Vegas, as well as much of the interior of Nevada, as far north as the state and west. The 8th covers the city of Reno, the 3rd largest in the state. The 9th covers the capital Carson City, as well as the rest of the interior of the state that does not belong to the 7th.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Joe Heck (R-Henderson/Clark), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Dina Titus (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2008

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Susie Lee (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2016

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Chris Giunchigliani (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Steven Horsford (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2012

District 6 – Lean D in 2020
Victoria Seaman (R-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2016
Nicole Cannizzaro (D-Las Vegas/Clark), first elected in 2016

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Cresent Hardy (R-Mesquite/Clark), first elected in 2014

District 8 – Likely D in 2020
Hillary Schieve (D-Reno/Washoe), first elected in 2016

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Mark Amodei (R-Carson City), first elected in 2010


Total:
2016 – GOP 41 x DEM 24
2018 – GOP 33 x DEM 32 (D+8)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #31 on: July 11, 2020, 01:52:11 PM »

Utah:


Utah

Salt Lake City

Provo

North Utah

District 1:
PVI – D+14
President 2016: Clinton +40%
President 2008: Obama +28%
Governor 2016: Weinholtz +25%
Senator 2016: Snow +22%


District 2:
PVI – R+4
President 2016: Clinton +7%
President 2008: McCain +0.5%
Governor 2016: Herbert +9%
Senator 2016: Lee +13%


District 3:
PVI – R+12
President 2016: Trump +4%
President 2008: McCain +16%
Governor 2016: Herbert +25%
Senator 2016: Lee +29%


District 4:
PVI – R+26
President 2016: Trump +11%
President 2008: McCain +42%
Governor 2016: Herbert +50%
Senator 2016: Lee +54%


District 5:

PVI – R+33
President 2016: Trump +17%
President 2008: McCain +54%
Governor 2016: Herbert +63%
Senator 2016: Lee +66%


District 6:
PVI – R+34
President 2016: Trump +13%
President 2008: McCain +56%
Governor 2016: Herbert +64%
Senator 2016: Lee +66%


District 7:
PVI – R+27
President 2016: Trump +36%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2016: Herbert +49%
Senator 2016: Lee +51%


District 8:
PVI – R+22
President 2016: Trump +19%
President 2008: McCain +33%
Governor 2016: Herbert +41%
Senator 2016: Lee +43%


District 9:
PVI – R+34
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +52%
Governor 2016: Herbert +60%
Senator 2016: Lee +63%



The 1st District of Utah is the only one represented by a member of the Democratic party, concentrated in the capital, Salt Lake City. The 2nd District is the most competitive in Utah, being considered an opportunity for Democrats in 2018, but Aimee Winder Newton managed to win a tight re-election. The 2nd covers West Valley City, Taylorsville and Murray.

The 3rd is also within Salt Lake County, covering West Jordan, South Jordan, Sandy and Cottonwood Heights. The 4th District covers the whole of Davis County, with Layton as its largest city. The 5th covers the south of Salt Lake County and northern Utah County, with Riverton, Alpine, Lehi, Pleasant Grove, Highland and American Fork as the main cities.

The 6th is entirely within the central part of Utah County, being centered in the city of Provo. The 7th covers the entire eastern portion of the state. The 8th is a small extension in the north of the state, covering Brigham City, Ogden, Logan and Hyrum. The 9th covers the entire western portion of the state.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Ben McAdams (D-Salt Lake City/Salt Lake), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Lean R in 2020
Aimee Winder Newton (R-Taylorsville/Salt Lake), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Kim Coleman (R-West Jordan/Salt Lake), first elected in 2016

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
Chris Stewart (R-Farmington/Davis), first elected in 2012

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Mia Love (R-Saratoga Springs/Utah), first elected in 2014

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
John Curtis (R-Provo/Utah), first elected in 2016

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
David Hinkins (R-Orangeville/Emery), first elected in 2012

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Rob Bishop (R-Brigham City/Box Elder), first elected in 2002

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Evan Vickers (R-Cedar City/Irom), first elected in 2014


Total:
2016 – GOP 49 x DEM 25
2018 – GOP 41 x DEM 33 (D+8)

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« Reply #32 on: July 11, 2020, 03:51:38 PM »

>Not Congresswoman Snow
Reality is often disappointing.
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« Reply #33 on: July 11, 2020, 04:08:46 PM »

there's no roads between box elder county and tooele.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #34 on: July 12, 2020, 01:10:57 PM »

there's no roads between box elder county and tooele.

I may be mistaken, but after seeing your comment I went to look and found roads in the western part of the Great Salt Lake that connect one county to the other.
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« Reply #35 on: July 12, 2020, 01:13:56 PM »
« Edited: July 12, 2020, 01:17:45 PM by Weatherboy »

there's no roads between box elder county and tooele.

I may be mistaken, but after seeing your comment I went to look and found roads in the western part of the Great Salt Lake that connect one county to the other.

if you take a look at google street view it doesn't appear that they're open to the public. I think there's an AFB in the area?

edit:
Great Salt Lake Map
Justinmorris at English Wikipedia / CC BY-SA (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0)
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #36 on: July 13, 2020, 05:42:26 PM »

Kansas:


Kansas

Wichita

Overland Park

District 1:
PVI – R+6
President 2016: Trump +8%
President 2012: Romney +8%
President 2008: McCain +3%

Governor 2018: Kelly +14%
Senator 2016: Moran +17%

District 2:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +33%
President 2012: Romney +33%
President 2008: McCain +26%
Governor 2018: Kobach +5%
Senator 2016: Moran +43%



District 3:
PVI – R+5
President 2016: Clinton +1%
President 2012: Romney +17%
President 2008: McCain +7%

Governor 2018: Kelly +20%
Senator 2016: Moran +15%

District 4:
PVI – R+3
President 2016: Clinton +2%
President 2012: Romney +7%
President 2008: Obama +1%
Governor 2018: Kelly +23%

Senator 2016: Moran +7%

District 5:

PVI – R+3
President 2016: Trump +8%

President 2012: Obama +1%
President 2008: Obama +8%
Governor 2018: Kelly +14%

Senator 2016: Moran +11%

District 6:
PVI – R+6
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2012: Romney +8%
President 2008: McCain +6%

Governor 2018: Kelly +20%
Senator 2016: Moran +21%

District 7:
PVI – R+20
President 2016: Trump +41%
President 2012: Romney +31%
President 2008: McCain +23%
Governor 2018: Kobach +15%
Senator 2016: Moran +45%


District 8:
PVI – R+24
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2012: Romney +40%
President 2008: McCain +33%
Governor 2018: Kobach +14%
Senator 2016: Moran +53%


District 9:
PVI – R+31
President 2016: Trump +58%
President 2012: Romney +55%
President 2008: McCain +48%
Governor 2018: Kobach +28%
Senator 2016: Moran +67%



Kansas 1st District covers most of Wichita and was considered a tossup in 2018, but with the incumbent winning by a comfortable margin. The 2nd covers the western rest of Wichita, as well as the nearest counties. The 3rd District covers the 2nd largest city in the state, Overland Park. The 4th District covers Olathe and Lawrence.

The 5th District covers the northeast of the state, including Kansas City Kansas. The 6th District is located on the outskirts of Topeka, the state capital. The 7th covers southern Kansas. The 8th is in the center of the state, covering from the south of Wichita to the extreme north of Kansas. The 9th covers the entire western part of Kansas and is the most republican of the districts.


District 1 – Lean R in 2020
Ron Estes (R-Wichita/Sedgwick), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Todd Tiahrt (R-Wichita/Sedgwick), first elected in 1994

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Kevin Yoder (R-Overland Park/Johnson), first elected in 2010, defeated in 2018
Barry Grissom (D-Leawood/Johnson), first elected in 2018

District 4 –Tossup in 2020
Sandy Praeger (R-Lawrence/Douglas), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Sharice Davids (D-Shawnee/Johnson), elected in 2018

District 5 – Lean R in 2020
Kelly Kultala (D-Kansas City/Wyandotte), first elected in 2008, defeated in 2016
Dennis Pyle (R-Hiawatha/Brown), elected in 2016

District 6 – Likely R in 2020
Lynn Jenkins (R-Topeka/Shawnee), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Steve Watkins (R-Topeka/Shawnee), elected in 2018

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Jeff Longbine (R-Emporia/Lyon), first elected in 2012

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Tracey Mann (R-Salina/Saline), first elected in 2012

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Roger Marshall (R-Great Bend/Barton), first elected in 2016


Total:
2016 – GOP 58 x DEM 25
2018 – GOP 48 x DEM 35 (D+10)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #37 on: July 14, 2020, 11:33:00 AM »


I updated the map of Nevada, transferring part of the 4th to the 7th, without changing the numbers, just visual.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #38 on: July 14, 2020, 03:15:47 PM »

Arkansas:


District 1:
PVI – D+11
President 2016: Clinton +28%
President 2008: Obama +20%
Governor 2018: Henderson +15%
Senator 2016: Eldridge +24%


District 2:
PVI – R+13
President 2016: Trump +25%
President 2008: McCain +19%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +35%
Senator 2016: Boozman +16%


District 3:
PVI – R+10
President 2016: Trump +20%
President 2008: McCain +13%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +29%
Senator 2016: Boozman +18%


District 4:
PVI – R+11
President 2016: Trump +22%
President 2008: McCain +20%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +31%
Senator 2016: Boozman +22%


District 5:
PVI – R+26
President 2016: Trump +53%
President 2008: McCain +31%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +60%
Senator 2016: Boozman +45%


District 6:
PVI – R+20
President 2016: Trump +36%
President 2008: McCain +32%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +44%
Senator 2016: Boozman +28%


District 7:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +37%
President 2008: McCain +26%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +44%
Senator 2016: Boozman +29%


District 8:
PVI – R+24
President 2016: Trump +45%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +54%
Senator 2016: Boozman +39%


District 9:
PVI – R+16
President 2016: Trump +28%
President 2008: McCain +23%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +30%
Senator 2016: Boozman +27%


District 10:
PVI – R+20
President 2016: Trump +32%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2018: Hutchinson +39%
Senator 2016: Boozman +35%



The 1st District of Arkansas is the only district in the state represented by a member of the Democratic party, and covers the state capital, Little Rock. The 2nd district is just east of the 1st. The 3rd covers the southeast of the state. The 4th the northeast and the 5th the north. The 6th is west of the 1st. The 7th is in southwest Arkansas, with the 8th just above, in the west of the state. The 9th and 10th are northwest of Arkansas.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Joyce Elliott (D-Little Rock/Pulaski), first elected in 2010

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Leslie Rutledge (R-Cabot/Lonoke), first elected in 2014

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Matthew Shepherd (R-El Dorado/Union), first elected in 2014

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
Rick Crawford (R-Jonesboro/Crowley), first elected in 2010

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Blake Johnson (R-Corning/Clay), first elected in 2016

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Dennis Milligan (R-Benton/Saline), first elected in 2014

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Bruce Westerman (R-Hot Springs/Garland), first elected in 2014

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Jon Eubanks (R-Paris/Logan), first elected in 2014

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Bob Ballinger (R-Berryville/Carroll), first elected in 2016

District 10 – Safe R in 2020
Steve Womack (R-Rogers/Benton), first elected in 2010



Total:
2016 – GOP 67 x DEM 26
2018 – GOP 57 x DEM 36 (D+10)


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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #39 on: July 15, 2020, 03:23:59 PM »

Mississippi:


District 1:
PVI – D+16
President 2008: Obama +31%


District 2:
PVI – R+13
President 2008: McCain +21%


District 3:
PVI – D+4
President 2008: Obama +11%


District 4:
PVI – D+8
President 2008: Obama +19%


District 5:
PVI – R+17
President 2008: McCain +30%


District 6:
PVI – R+19
President 2008: McCain +29%


District 7:
PVI – R+22
President 2008: McCain +38%


District 8:
PVI – R+22
President 2008: McCain +38%


District 9:
PVI – R+21
President 2008: McCain +37%


District 10:
PVI – R+7
President 2008: McCain +9%



The 1st District occupies most of the capital and largest city in the state, Jackson, going south towards Brookhaven. The 2nd is in the south of the state, including the city of Hattiesburg. The 3rd and 4th are along the Mississippi River. The 5th is in the north of the state.
The 6th is in the northern portion of the eastern border of the state. The 7th is at the southern end of the state, with the largest city Gulfport. The 8th is in the southern portion of the eastern border of the state. The 9th is in the center of the state, with the largest city Meridian, and the east part of the capital Jackson. The 10th is in the central portion of the eastern border of the state.


District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Bennie Thompson (D-Bolton/Hinds), first elected in 1992

District 2 – Safe R in 2020
Tom King (R-Petal/Forrest), first elected in 2002

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Mike Espy (D-Yazoo), first elected in 1986

District 4 – Safe D in 2020
Derrick Simmons (D-Greenville/Washington), first elected in 2014

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Rita Potts Parks (R-Corinth/Alcorn), first elected in 2012

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Alan Nunnelee (R-Tupelo/Lee), first elected in 2010, died in 2015
Trent Kelly (R-Saltillo/Lee), first elected in 2015

District 7 – Safe R in 2020
Steven Palazzo (R-Gulfport/Harrison), first elected in 2010

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Chris McDaniel (R-Ellisville/Jones), first elected in 2014

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Gregg Harper (R-Brandon/Rankin), first elected in 2008, retired in 2018
Michael Guest (R-Brandon/Rankin), first elected in 2008

District 10 – Likely R in 2020
Amy Tuck (R-Oktibbeha), first elected in 2006



Total:
2016 – GOP 74 x DEM 29
2018 – GOP 64 x DEM 39 (D+10)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #40 on: July 16, 2020, 03:56:17 PM »

Iowa:


Iowa
 
Des Moines

District 1:
PVI – R+1
President 2016: Trump +12%

President 2008: Obama +15%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +7%
Senator 2016: Grassley +25%


District 2:
PVI – D+2
President 2016: Clinton +1%
President 2008: Obama +17%
Governor 2018: Hubbell +7%
Senator 2016: Grassley +15%


District 3:
PVI – D+1
President 2016: Trump +4%
President 2008: Obama +16%
Governor 2018: Hubbell +2%

Senator 2016: Grassley +16%

District 4:
PVI – D+4
President 2016: Clinton +6%
President 2008: Obama +21%
Governor 2018: Hubbell +14%

Senator 2016: Grassley +9%

District 5:
PVI – R+1
President 2016: Trump +8%

President 2008: Obama +17%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +4%
Senator 2016: Grassley +24%


District 6:
PVI – R+7
President 2016: Trump +18%
President 2008: McCain +2%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +10%
Senator 2016: Grassley +33%


District 7:
PVI – D+10
President 2016: Clinton +12%
President 2008: Obama +22%
Governor 2018: Hubbell +29%
Senator 2016: Judge +3%


District 8:
PVI – R+11
President 2016: Trump +24%
President 2008: McCain +6%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +17%
Senator 2016: Grassley +39%


District 9:
PVI – R+17
President 2016: Trump +40%
President 2008: McCain +15%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +37%
Senator 2016: Grassley +51%


District 10:
PVI – R+6
President 2016: Trump +17%

President 2008: Obama +6%
Governor 2018: Reynolds +9%
Senator 2016: Grassley +32%



Iowa is a state full of competitive districts. The 1st District covers the northeast of the state, with Dubuque as its largest city. In 2018, Rod Blum won a tight re-election against Abby Finkenauer.
The 2nd District centers around Cedar Rapids. The 3rd is in the southeast of the state, with Davenport as its largest city, and despite the many tossups, it was the only district that flipped in 2018.
The 4th district is adjacent to the 3rd, with Iowa City as the largest city. The 5th District is to the north, with Waterloo as its largest city. The 6th is close to Des Moines, with the largest city Ankeny. The 7th covers Des Moines and West Des Moines.
The 8th is in the southwest of the state. The 9th is in the northwest of the state and is the most republican of the districts, with the largest city Sioux City. The 10th is next to the 9th, in the north of the state.

District 1 –Tossup in 2020
Rod Blum (R-Dubuque), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Lean D in 2020
Rob Hogg (D-Cedar Rapids/Linn), first elected in 2008

District 3 – Tossup in 2020
Mark Lofgren (R-Muscatine), first elected in 2014, defeated in 2018
Monica Kurth (D-Davenport/Scott), elected in 2018

District 4 – Likely D in 2020
Dave Loebsack (D-Iowa City/Johnson), first elected in 2006

District 5 – Likely R in 2020
Pat Grassley (R-New Hartford/Butler), first elected in 2014

District 6 – Likely R in 2020
Matt Strawn (R-Ankeny/Polk), first elected in 2014

District 7 – Safe D in 2020
Christie Vilsack (D-Des Moines/Polk), first elected in 2010

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
David Young (R-Van Meter/Dallas), first elected in 2014

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Steve King (R-Kiron/Crawford), first elected in 2002

District 10 – Likely R in 2020
Tim Kraayenbrink (R-Fort Dodge/Webster), first elected in 2016



Total:
2016 – GOP 81 x DEM 32
2018 – GOP 70 x DEM 43 (D+11)

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« Reply #41 on: July 17, 2020, 02:19:55 PM »

Connecticut:


District 1:
PVI – D+8
President 2008: Obama +20%


District 2:
PVI – D+3
President 2008: Obama +12%


District 3:
PVI – D+10
President 2008: Obama +25%


District 4:
PVI – R+4
President 2008: Obama +6%

District 5:
PVI – D+17
President 2008: Obama +40%


District 6:
PVI – D+2
President 2008: Obama +14%


District 7:
PVI – D+3
President 2008: Obama +17%


District 8:
PVI – D+6
President 2008: Obama +24%


District 9:
PVI – D+7
President 2008: Obama +26%


District 10:
PVI – D+20
President 2008: Obama +46%


District 11:
PVI – D+7
President 2008: Obama +26%


District 12:
PVI – D+3
President 2008: Obama +19%



The 1st District is in the southwest of the state, covering the cities of Stamford, Greenwich and Norwalk. The 2nd covers the central part of Fairfield County, with Danbury as the largest city. The 3rd is concentrated in the largest city in the state, Bridgeport, as well as its surroundings. The 4th covers Litchfield County, and is the only one represented by the GOP after the 2018 election.
The 5th is centered on New Haven, as well as its suburbs, such as West Haven, East Haven and Milford. The 6th is north of the 5th, with the largest city Waterbury. The 7th covers the remaining eastern portion of New Haven County. The 8th covers the entire territory of Middletown in the center of the state to New London, in the southeast. The 9th is in the extreme center of Connecticut, with Bristol as the largest city.
The 10th focuses on the city of Hartford, the 3rd largest in the state. The 11th is next to the 10th, covering Manchester, Colchester, Vernon and Enfield. The 12th covers all of Eastern Connecticut, having been represented by the GOP until the 2018 election.

District 1 –Safe D in 2020
Jim Himes (D-Cob Cob/Fairfield), first elected in 2008

District 2 – Likely D in 2020
Bob Godfrey (D-Danbury/Fairfield), first elected in 2010

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Joe Ganim (D-Bridgeport/Fairfield), first elected in 2000

District 4 – Lean R in 2020
Kevin Witkos (R-Canton/Hartford), first elected in 2012

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Rosa DeLauro (D-New Haven), first elected in 1990

District 6 – Likely D in 2020
Joan Hartley (D-Waterbury/New Haven), first elected in 2008

District 7 – Likely D in 2020
Elizabeth Esty (D-Chesire/New Haven), first elected in 2012, retired in 2018
Jahana Hayes (D-Wolcott/New Haven), elected in 2018

District 8 – Safe D in 2020
Dan Drew (D-Middletown/Middlesex), first elected in 2014

District 9 – Safe D in 2020
Theresa Gerratana (D-New Britain/Hartford), first elected in 2014

District 10 – Safe D in 2020
Pedro Segarra (D-Hartford), first elected in 2014

District 11 – Safe D in 2020
John B. Larson (D-East Hartford/Hartford), first elected in 1998

District 12 – Lean D in 2020
Rob Simmons (R-Stonington/New London), first elected in 2000, retired in 2018
Mae Flexer (D-Danielson/Windham), elected in 2018


Total:
2016 – GOP 83 x DEM 42
2018 – GOP 71 x DEM 54 (D+12)

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« Reply #42 on: July 20, 2020, 04:24:01 PM »

Oklahoma:


Oklahoma
 
Oklahoma City
 
Tulsa

District 1:
PVI – R+11
President 2016: Trump +19%
President 2008: McCain +19%

Governor 2018: Edmondson +4%
Senator 2016: Lankford +32%

District 2:
PVI – R+7
President 2016: Trump +7%
President 2008: McCain +16%

Governor 2018: Edmondson +15%
Senator 2016: Lankford +22%

District 3:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +30%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2018: Stitt +4%
Senator 2016: Lankford +44%


District 4:
PVI – R+23
President 2016: Trump +47%
President 2008: McCain +37%
Governor 2018: Stitt +23%
Senator 2016: Lankford +53%


District 5:
PVI – R+32
President 2016: Trump +62%
President 2008: McCain +54%
Governor 2018: Stitt +39%
Senator 2016: Lankford +64%


District 6:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +31%
President 2008: McCain +37%
Governor 2018: Stitt +11%
Senator 2016: Lankford +43%


District 7:
PVI – R+10
President 2016: Trump +14%
President 2008: McCain +11%

Governor 2018: Edmondson +6%
Senator 2016: Lankford +14%

District 8:
PVI – R+23
President 2016: Trump +46%
President 2008: McCain +33%
Governor 2018: Stitt +21%
Senator 2016: Lankford +49%


District 9:
PVI – R+25
President 2016: Trump +51%
President 2008: McCain +36%
Governor 2018: Stitt +27%
Senator 2016: Lankford +52%


District 10:
PVI – R+21
President 2016: Trump +45%
President 2008: McCain +29%
Governor 2018: Stitt +16%
Senator 2016: Lankford +42%


District 11:
PVI – R+26
President 2016: Trump +54%
President 2008: McCain +38%
Governor 2018: Stitt +25%
Senator 2016: Lankford +47%


District 12:
PVI – R+18
President 2016: Trump +34%
President 2008: McCain +27%
Governor 2018: Stitt +7%
Senator 2016: Lankford +42%


Oklahoma's 1st, 2nd and 3rd districts are concentrated around Oklahoma City. The 1st is to the east, with the largest cities being Edmond, most of Moore and Midwest City. The 2nd comprises most of Oklahoma City. The 3rd is to the west, with a part of Oklahoma City, Yukon and Bethany.

The 4th is in the southwest of the state, as the largest Lawton city. The 5th occupies the west of the state, including the entire Panhandlee. The 6th covers the south of the city of Tulsa, as well as Broken Arrow. The 7th occupies most of the rest of Tulsa, in addition to Owasso, to the north.

The 8th is in the center of the state, occupying from the north of Edmondson to the south of Tulsa, in Sapulpa. 9th is in northeastern Oklahoma. The 10th is west of the state, in the central part, starting from the limits of Broken Arrown, on the 6th. The 11th covers the entire southeastern portion of the state. The 12th occupies a region that begins south of Oklahoma City, in Norman, down to the southern border of Oklahoma.

District 1 – Likely R in 2020
Steve Russell (R-Del City/Oklahoma), first elected in 2014

District 2 – Tossup in 2020
Greg Treat (R-Oklahoma City/Oklahoma), first elected in 2012, defeated in 2018
Kendra Horn (D-Oklahoma City/Oklahoma), elected in 2018

District 3 – Safe R in 2020
Terry Neese (R-Yukon/Canadian), first elected in 1996

District 4 – Safe R in 2020
T. W. Shannon (R-Lawton/Comanche), first elected in 2014

District 5 – Safe R in 2020
Frank Lucas (R-Enid/Garfield), first elected in 1994

District 6 – Safe R in 2020
Nathan Dahm (R-Tulsa), first elected in 2016

District 7 – Likely R in 2020
Kevin Hern (R-Tulsa), first elected in 2016

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Roger Thompson (R-Okemah/Okfuskee), first elected in 2016

District 9 – Safe R in 2020
Micheal Bergstrom (R-Adair/Mayes), first elected in 2016

District 10 – Safe R in 2020
Markwayne Mullin (R-Westville/Adair), first elected in 2012

District 11 – Safe R in 2020
Shane Jett (R-Shawnee/Pottawatomie), first elected in 2010

District 12 – Safe R in 2020
Tom Cole (R-Moore/Cleveland), first elected in 2002


Total:
2016 – GOP 95 x DEM 42
2018 – GOP 82 x DEM 55 (D+13)

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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #43 on: July 21, 2020, 04:21:26 PM »
« Edited: July 23, 2020, 01:19:37 PM by Adriano Chiká »

Oregon:

[/img]
Oregon

Portland
District 1:
PVI – D+12
President 2016: Clinton +24%
President 2008: Obama +28%
Governor 2018: Brown +21%
Governor 2016: Brown +21%
Senator 2016: Wyden +36%


District 2:
PVI – D+37
President 2016: Clinton +73%
President 2008: Obama +73%
Governor 2018: Brown +73%
Governor 2016: Brown +70%
Senator 2016: Wyden +67%


District 3:
PVI – D+25
President 2016: Clinton +54%
President 2008: Obama +50%
Governor 2018: Brown +43%
Governor 2016: Brown +42%
Senator 2016: Wyden +55%


District 4:
PVI – EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +5%
President 2008: Obama +9%

Governor 2018: Buehler +5%
Governor 2016: Pierce +3%

Senator 2016: Wyden +16%

District 5:
PVI – D+10
President 2016: Clinton +17%
President 2008: Obama +21%
Governor 2018: Brown +17%
Governor 2016: Brown +15%
Senator 2016: Wyden +30%


District 6:
PVI – EVEN
President 2016: Clinton +1%
President 2008: Obama +11%

Governor 2018: Buehler +3%
Governor 2016: Pierce +1%

Senator 2016: Wyden +16%

District 7:
PVI – R+1
President 2016: Clinton +0.5%
President 2008: Obama +5%

Governor 2018: Buehler +2%
Governor 2016: Pierce +8%

Senator 2016: Wyden +12%

District 8:
PVI – R+11
President 2016: Trump +21%
President 2008: McCain +9%
Governor 2018: Buehler +26%
Governor 2016: Pierce +25%
Senator 2016: Callahan +4%


District 9:
PVI – EVEN
President 2016: Trump +1%
President 2008: Obama +10%
Governor 2018: Buehler +3%
Governor 2016: Pierce +0.3%

Senator 2016: Wyden +13%

District 10:
PVI – D+13
President 2016: Clinton +24%
President 2008: Obama +22%
Governor 2018: Brown +24%
Governor 2016: Brown +22%
Senator 2016: Wyden +34%


District 11:
PVI – R+9
President 2016: Trump +16%
President 2008: McCain +5%
Governor 2018: Buehler +17%
Governor 2016: Pierce +11%

Senator 2016: Wyden +5%

District 12:
PVI – R+9
President 2016: Trump +15%
President 2008: McCain +7%
Governor 2018: Buehler +22%
Governor 2016: Pierce +15%

Senator 2016: Wyden +8%

District 13:
PVI – R+19
President 2016: Trump +35%
President 2008: McCain +24%
Governor 2018: Buehler +30%
Governor 2016: Pierce +31%
Senator 2016: Callahan +4%



Oregon is a mostly democratic state, with 4 very competitive districts, but all occupied by Democrats, despite repeated serious challenges from the GOP.

The 1st District occupies the eastern part of Portland, in addition to the city of Gresham. The 2nd occupies the entire central part of Portland. The 3rd occupies the remainder of the west portion of Portland, in addition to Beaverton.

The 4th starts south of Lake Oswego, and covers Oregon City, Gladstone, going east on Estacada. The 5th occupies the western part of Tigard, in addition to Aloha, Tualatin and Sherwood. The 6th occupies the entire northwestern portion of the state, with Hillsboro as its largest city.

The 7th covers from Newberg in the north, to Keizer and the state capital, Salem, in its southern part. The 8th is in the center of the state, covering some suburbs of Salem and, in its eastern portion, going to the 1st to the north. The 9th covers most of the coast of the state of Oregon.

The 10th is concentrated in the city of Eugene, the third largest in the state. The 11th covers a southern portion of the state, just below the 12th, which runs from southern Eugene to a small northern Oregon border at Cascade Locks. The 13th covers the rest of eastern Oregon.

District 1 – Safe D in 2020
Laurie Monnes Anderson (D-Gresham/Multnomah), first elected in 2008

District 2 – Safe D in 2020
Earl Blumenauer (D-Portland/Multnomah), first elected in 1996, special

District 3 – Safe D in 2020
Suzanne Bonamici (D-Beaverton/Washington), first elected in 2012, special

District 4 – Lean D in 2020
Kurt Schraeder (D-Canby/Clackamas), first elected in 2008

District 5 – Safe D in 2020
Richard Devlin (D-Tualatin/Washington), first elected in 2006

District 6 – Lean D in 2020
Deborah Boone (D-Seaside/Clatsop), first elected in 2012

District 7 – Lean D in 2020
Bill Bradbury (D-Salem/Marion), first elected in 2002

District 8 – Safe R in 2020
Fred Girod (R-Stayton/Marion), first elected in 2012

District 9 –Tossup in 2020
Arnie Roblan (D-Coos Bay/Coos), first elected in 2012

District 10 – Safe D in 2020
Peter De Fazio (D-Springfield/Lane), first elected in 1986

District 11 – Likely R in 2020
Dennis Richardson (R-Central Point/Jackson), first elected in 2014, died in 2019
Duane Stark (R-Grants Pass/Josephine), elected in 2019

District 12 – Likely R in 2020
Bruce Hanna (R-Roseburg/Douglas), first elected in 2010

District 13 – Safe R in 2020
Greg Walden (R-Hood River), first elected in 1998



Total:
2016 – GOP 99 x DEM 51
2018 – GOP 86 x DEM 64 (D+13)

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« Reply #44 on: July 21, 2020, 04:28:53 PM »

Who replaces Richardson after his death?
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #45 on: July 21, 2020, 04:37:36 PM »


Fixed it! Thanks!
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« Reply #46 on: July 21, 2020, 08:16:53 PM »

Great work! That said, Oregon does have redistricting rules about not crossing the Cascades more than once, as well as road connections for all districts, and your 11th and 12th districts both break that rule.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #47 on: July 22, 2020, 03:43:17 PM »

Great work! That said, Oregon does have redistricting rules about not crossing the Cascades more than once, as well as road connections for all districts, and your 11th and 12th districts both break that rule.

Thanks for the info, I didn't know about this Cascades issue.
I slightly changed the border between 11th, 12th and 13th, to make them more pleasant and try to correct the problem of the road connection. However, I believe that the map is not yet adequate with the information you gave me.
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« Reply #48 on: July 22, 2020, 06:11:23 PM »

Great work! That said, Oregon does have redistricting rules about not crossing the Cascades more than once, as well as road connections for all districts, and your 11th and 12th districts both break that rule.

Thanks for the info, I didn't know about this Cascades issue.
I slightly changed the border between 11th, 12th and 13th, to make them more pleasant and try to correct the problem of the road connection. However, I believe that the map is not yet adequate with the information you gave me.
It looks a little better now. Generally, the rule in Oregon (in addition to road contiguity) is that the 18 eastern counties (everything east of Hood River, Wasco, Jefferson, Deschutes, and Klamath, including those counties) are a COI and can't be split - while that's not going to apply here, I think only one district can cross the 'border' between these 18 counties and the rest of Oregon. For your map, this would probably mean taking the 11th out of Klamath County.
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Adriano Chiká
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« Reply #49 on: July 23, 2020, 01:20:45 PM »

Great work! That said, Oregon does have redistricting rules about not crossing the Cascades more than once, as well as road connections for all districts, and your 11th and 12th districts both break that rule.


Thanks for the info, I didn't know about this Cascades issue.
I slightly changed the border between 11th, 12th and 13th, to make them more pleasant and try to correct the problem of the road connection. However, I believe that the map is not yet adequate with the information you gave me.
It looks a little better now. Generally, the rule in Oregon (in addition to road contiguity) is that the 18 eastern counties (everything east of Hood River, Wasco, Jefferson, Deschutes, and Klamath, including those counties) are a COI and can't be split - while that's not going to apply here, I think only one district can cross the 'border' between these 18 counties and the rest of Oregon. For your map, this would probably mean taking the 11th out of Klamath County.


I edited the map of Oregon once again, exchanging some precincts between the 11th, 12th and 13th districts. No change in numbers. I believe that the map is now more appropriate to the laws of the state?
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