When will Minnesota next elect a statewide Republican?

[Tekken_Guy]

When will a Republican next win statewide in Minnesota?

[smoltchanov]

Probably - when they stop to nominate MAGA-idiots. Stauber-type Republican - could win, Arne Carlson-type (if they still exist) - would win for sure...

[Ferguson97]

They came pretty close to winning the state auditor's election, the Dem only won by 0.4%, and the attorneys general election, where the Dem only won by 0.9%. They're not term-limited positions though, but if Republicans field a good enough candidate in a strong enough year for Republicans, I think they could pull it off.

[S019]

In the next Republican wave election

They came pretty close to winning the state auditor's election, the Dem only won by 0.4%, and the attorneys general election, where the Dem only won by 0.9%. They're not term-limited positions though, but if Republicans field a good enough candidate in a strong enough year for Republicans, I think they could pull it off.

I feel pretty confident that Ellison would've gone down without Dobbs or even if abortion rights were codified in Minnesota. He may eventually go for a promotion, and I won't be surprised if he loses if he does so.

[smoltchanov]

In the next Republican wave election

They came pretty close to winning the state auditor's election, the Dem only won by 0.4%, and the attorneys general election, where the Dem only won by 0.9%. They're not term-limited positions though, but if Republicans field a good enough candidate in a strong enough year for Republicans, I think they could pull it off.

I feel pretty confident that Ellison would've gone down without Dobbs or even if abortion rights were codified in Minnesota. He may eventually go for a promotion, and I won't be surprised if he loses if he does so.

Ellison was weak (just as Omar in primary), but the fact, that even he managed to win, says a lot about "quality" of Republican candidate..

[Flyersfan232]

Probably - when they stop to nominate MAGA-idiots. Stauber-type Republican - could win, Arne Carlson-type (if they still exist) - would win for sure...

a youngkin type or hella generic  republican in a good year for the gop with money could possibly get the job done against a non incumbent or a very unpopular one

[smoltchanov]

Probably - when they stop to nominate MAGA-idiots. Stauber-type Republican - could win, Arne Carlson-type (if they still exist) - would win for sure...

a youngkin type or hella generic  republican in a good year for the gop with money could possibly get the job done against a non incumbent or a very unpopular one

Agree. Democrats must thank God, that Republicans prefer to run absolute idiots....

[Kabam]

Probably in 2026, if a Dem is president. Republicans have already been very close this year.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The Republicans DID already try running a very Generic R candidate...twice actually. Although Jensen had a ton of baggage that was easy to attack and Secretary of State candidate Kim Crockett was a complete nut job who was a hard election denier and used anti-Semitic dog whistles against her grandson of Holocaust survivors opponent, the candidates for State Auditor and Attorney General were very normal people and pretty much blank slates. The AG one was just some 36-year old corporate attorney who had never been involved in politics before and only got nominated because his primary opponent was so obviously toxic. However he was still weak due to wanting to appeal over decisions striking down any abortion restrictions in Minnesota and was attacked over that. As for Ryan Wilson he actually ran some generic warm and fuzzy TV ads while Julie Blaha did literally nothing besides speak at a few DFL campaign events for other candidates and give rides to other DFL candidates and office holders so they wouldn't have to drive drunk back from public events (there was a high profile case involving one who was obviously drinking in the car which is illegal in Minnesota even as a passenger although no charges were filed against her or Blaha who was tested but had a zero BAC.)

Probably in 2026, if a Dem is president. Republicans have already been very close this year.

The problem with that is, are they going to be stronger in four years? The population shift in the state is not good for them, rural areas are losing population, the fastest growing areas now are strongly Dem. The state also gets less white each year. And if there's a State Auditor candidate who actually campaigns that one won't be as weak...Keith Ellison could also be much stronger if the memory of "defund the police" fades. Perhaps Trump may not longer be relevant than especially if he loses again which is true in your scenario and won't be alienating most swing voters anymore like he did this year. But all that remains to be seen.

[sting in the rafters]

Whenever they figure out time travel and shrink the Twin Cities metro back under 3 million people.

[Dani Rose]

To me, it's far enough away that I can't put a date on it. If they couldn't even beat Ellison and Blaha with functionally generic candidates in what should have been a positive GOP year, I don't see an immediate way forward barring a massive scandal on the part of a Democratic candidate.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

Part of the Minnesota GOP's woes is they don't know how to work with their current base.

Traditionally, this was the suburbs. Even non-Minneapolis Hennepin County used to be an at least Lean R area downballot (it's been a very long time since any Republican has won it for President, but Bush came a lot closer than any since, more on that later, and even Tom Emmer and other losing statewide Republicans carried it), yes it has some pretty solid D areas even back then like Richfield, St. Louis Park, Brooklyn Center, etc. but the Republicans dominated not just in the areas they still do but also Maple Grove, Eden Prairie and put up a pretty solid performance in some of the middle class suburbs if not winning them (Plymouth for example is actually the home of none other than Jeff Johnson who represented it in the State House.) Tim Pawlenty's old State House district is based around Eagan, the closest successor to it was carried by Walz by almost 28 points and even by Ellison by just over 20. Even Michele Bachmann was from Washington County although her State Senate seat was much more Republican than the county (the closest successor is now held by Karin Housley, yes the candidate who Tina Smith defeated in 2018.) It was a typical suburban GOP coalition of evangelicals as the bedrock but also the country club crowd with middle class swing voters serving as additional ones for downballot offices. And also notably this is where their funding mostly came from as well.

But then came Trump and the GOP in that area was razed, they lost all those educated middle class swing voters on all levels, and even the country club types were weakened, a lot of donors closed their wallets and the party was in a tailspin. They didn't really realize at first because Hillary performed so poorly thanks to some flukeish things also occurring (especially college turnout plummeting) but it's becoming more clear now that they don't have a workable coalition. They're less funded and the old turnout machine they built in that region is now obsolete, and they're still working on building one amongst the new rural voters. These people don't donate and are more difficult to turn out. Worthy of note is that Housley only was re-elected by about 5 points and Walz actually won her district by about 7...that seat is on borrowed time and what makes it notable is that it means the Republicans are now having trouble holding onto the are that used to elect Michele Bachmann. As for Hennepin County, in 2004 Bush broke 40% there, meaning that today it's possible for a Republican to win by the national popular vote by double digits with a uniform swing and still do worse than Bush did in Hennepin County. That is not something that one can just recover from, and it's going to take a lot more than just scraping a few more voters out of declining rural areas, especially with less funding and more internal turmoil.

I will say this though: The MNGOP can take a breather for the next two years and focus on rebuilding. The only statewide elections in 2024 are Amy Klobuchar running for reelection and the Presidential one, so since they're obviously not going to beat Klobuchar and won't rely on the state for their Presidential path to victory. But of course knowing them and how dysfunctional they're still acting that's probably not going to happen.

[smoltchanov]

Thanks for a couple of really interesting comments above. But they prove (may be - in soft form) what i said: Ryan Wilson almost defeated Julie Blaha (the fact, that she is woman, may have saved her), while difference between Simon and Crockett is more then 9%. It's a lot in rather polarised Minnesota. So, candidate's quality and ideology still matters.... And, generally, it's much better for any party to run "sane" candidates...

[Kabam]

The problem with that is, are they going to be stronger in four years? The population shift in the state is not good for them, rural areas are losing population, the fastest growing areas now are strongly Dem. The state also gets less white each year. And if there's a State Auditor candidate who actually campaigns that one won't be as weak...Keith Ellison could also be much stronger if the memory of "defund the police" fades. Perhaps Trump may not longer be relevant than especially if he loses again which is true in your scenario and won't be alienating most swing voters anymore like he did this year. But all that remains to be seen.

Of course, there are quite a few question marks we have about 2026 and even more about the next cycles, which only allows us to make vague assumptions. Also I did previously not know that Minnesota governor Walz is not term limited, so if he runs again that makes my assumption unlikelier. But one statewide office can definitely flip in 2026. Of course, the right circumstances are needed.