Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)

[Person Man]

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

1. He trolls a lot, repeatedly
2. Trolling gets reported
3. He gets warned
4. He doesn't change, at least not for long
5. He gets banned

So someone will PM you to say "stop trolling"? I've been here since the 2008 primaries and have like 18 moderated posts. Never has anyone told me that they are seriously considering banning or anything like a "talk behind the shed". Of course people have ignored me and usually I'm busy and contribute between the level of CB and an average poster. I have my moments, though but generally I just come here for the news (as I am pretty close to the ideological center of this site though maybe its a pinch more clerical and socialistic than I would like at times).

[Person Man]

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

None of these Republican candidates will win unless Trump wins. Not all of them will win unless Trump brings the House with him.