Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)

[Ferguson97]

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

How have you arrived at this conclusion?

[Ferguson97]

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

Do you think Ducey appointed McSally to the seat to intentionally weaken her so that he could run for the seat in 2022?

That would be a really dumb move on his part, so there's a chance