Change Research - Kelly +9, Peters +7, Cunningham +10 (AZ, MI, NC)

[South Dakota Democrat]

Peters 49%
James 42%

Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%

Huh?

(High quality posting, I know). 

Yeah Change's numbers always seem super weird.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Estimated sample sizes for swing states based on percentage of the full battleground sample they constitute. The MoE for the full battleground sample of 3739 likely voters is 1.6%.

AZ: 298 likely voters
Kelly 53%
McSally 44%
Undecided 3%
Would not vote 0%

MI: 559 likely voters
Peters 49%
James 42%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 2%

NC: 597 likely voters
Cunningham 51%
Tillis 41%
Undecided 7%
Would not vote 1%

Those are very small sample sizes for statewide races

Especially Arizona

[South Dakota Democrat]

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

How have you arrived at this conclusion?

Conclusion is too big of a word for him to understand.

[South Dakota Democrat]

Getting back on topic:

I don't know if I buy Cunningham +10 in North Carolina, but things are definitely pointing towards, at worst, a toss-up-typs scenario for him against Tillis.  

I place Arizona in the lean-D category -- McSally losing in 2018 yet being appointed anyway is a rather baffling short-term move by Ducey.  

And I still like Peters in Michigan.  James could get to a point where he makes things close, but he'd need to find that contigent of voters who puts him over the top.  And if Biden is leading the state on Election Night, I'm not sure he'd be able to find that necessary cadre of split-ticket voters. 

Do you think Ducey appointed McSally to the seat to intentionally weaken her so that he could run for the seat in 2022?

[South Dakota Democrat]

Peters is going to lose in MI and so is Biden. They should both be doing better since Trump's avg approval is 41-42% right now. When Biden collapses  they will both pull out narrow victories.

I wonder how we can get you banned from this board as well.

So you want someone banned for expressing the opinion that Peters and Biden will both lose in Michigan?

More for being annoying/trolling.