TX (UT-Tyler): General - Cornyn +11, Primary - Hegar +12

[VAR]

University of Texas at Tyler
June 29-July 7
1909 RV
MoE: 2.2%

Cornyn vs. Hegar
Cornyn 37%
Hegar 26%
Other 6%
Undecided 31%

Cornyn vs. West
Cornyn 37%
West 25%
Other 6%
Undecided 32%

D Primary
898 RV
MoE: 3.3%

Hegar 32%
West 20%
Other 10%
Undecided 37%

https://www.dallasnews.com/news/public-health/2020/07/12/joe-biden-builds-lead-over-donald-trump-in-reliably-red-texas-as-voters-sour-on-handling-of-virus/

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Where is MT Treasurer with the NUT Biden-Cornyn Texas map? He’s giving Perdue a run for his money with the amount of “Dems for Reasonable Republicans” GOTV brigade!

[Landslide Lyndon]

Useless.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712_TX.pdf

Among likely voters in the general election:
MoE: 2.4%
Sample size: 1677

Cornyn 42%
Hegar 29%
Other 5%
Undecided 22%

Cornyn 43%
West 28%
Other 6%
Undecided 23%

Among likely voters in the primary runoff:
MoE: 3.4%
Sample size: 829

Hegar 35%
West 22%
Other 11%
Undecided 32%

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Hegar is doing just as bad as West and users said Hegar should be nominee. Go West.

I hope Bagel responds to this poll because he is the one that said Hegar should be nominee, but he probably wont

[VAR]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712_TX.pdf

Among likely voters in the general election:
MoE: 2.4%
Sample size: 1677

Cornyn 42%
Hegar 29%
Other 5%
Undecided 22%

Cornyn 43%
West 28%
Other 6%
Undecided 23%

Among likely voters in the primary runoff:
MoE: 3.4%
Sample size: 829

Hegar 35%
West 22%
Other 11%
Undecided 32%

Thank you for this! I think Hegar’s going to lose by double digits. Here’s the math:

34% of Dems are undecided. If they all would choose Hegar, she’d gain 12.6 points and jump to 41.6%. But I don’t think they’ll all choose Hegar, so let’s make that 40.4%.

20% of Reps are undecided. If they all would choose Cornyn, he’d gain 8.4 points and jump to 50.4%. He would win the election.

31% of Indys are undecided. If they would break for Cornyn 60-40, he’d gain 3.5 points and Hegar would gain 2.4 points.

Cornyn 54/43.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20200712_TX.pdf

Among likely voters in the general election:
MoE: 2.4%
Sample size: 1677

Cornyn 42%
Hegar 29%
Other 5%
Undecided 22%

Cornyn 43%
West 28%
Other 6%
Undecided 23%

Among likely voters in the primary runoff:
MoE: 3.4%
Sample size: 829

Hegar 35%
West 22%
Other 11%
Undecided 32%

Thank you for this! I think Hegar’s going to lose by double digits. Here’s the math:

34% of Dems are undecided. If they all would choose Hegar, she’d gain 12.6 points and jump to 41.6%. But I don’t think they’ll all choose Hegar, so let’s make that 40.4%.

20% of Reps are undecided. If they all would choose Cornyn, he’d gain 8.4 points and jump to 50.4%. He would win the election.

31% of Indys are undecided. If they would break for Cornyn 60-40, he’d gain 3.5 points and Hegar would gain 2.4 points.

Cornyn 54/43.

You neglect to count for the massive suburban Dem vote that sunbelt Republican Senators with a penis and a radiant smile get.

[OneJ]

With such a high amount of undecideds and the fact that Hegar is relatively unknown compared to Cornyn (who a lot of people apparently haven't either made their mind about yet as he's polling a bit far from 50 for an incumbent) and the fact that we still have a while before the election, I don't understand why anyone's predicting a double-digit Cornyn victory which won't even happen anyway.

[Calthrina950]

Where is MT Treasurer with the NUT Biden-Cornyn Texas map? He’s giving Perdue a run for his money with the amount of “Dems for Reasonable Republicans” GOTV brigade!

I think George W. Bush's 1998 gubernatorial map would be a good framework for what Cornyn's victory will look like this year:

"Moderate" suburbanites and urbanites in Harris, Bexar, Dallas, Travis, El Paso, Fort Bend, Williamson, and Hays Counties who are backing Biden love John Cornyn, and will crawl through broken glass to vote for him against any Democrat. Even Beto O'Rourke would get blown out of the water by thirty points or more!

Sarcasm.

[VAR]

With such a high amount of undecideds and the fact that Hegar is relatively unknown compared to Cornyn (who a lot of people apparently haven't either made their mind about yet as he's polling a bit far from 50 for an incumbent) and the fact that we still have a while before the election, I don't understand why anyone's predicting a double-digit Cornyn victory which won't even happen anyway.

Did I predict a double-digit Cornyn victory without paying attention to the data? No, I didn’t. I tried to estimate who the undecideds will pick as we get closer to the election. You can call my analysis flawed, but I don’t think just criticizing the result is helpful.

Also, my double-digit Cornyn victory prediction was based on the LV sample which has Cornyn leading 43/29. The RV sample indicates a high single-digit Cornyn victory. Maybe that’s why you found it improbable.

[OneJ]

With such a high amount of undecideds and the fact that Hegar is relatively unknown compared to Cornyn (who a lot of people apparently haven't either made their mind about yet as he's polling a bit far from 50 for an incumbent) and the fact that we still have a while before the election, I don't understand why anyone's predicting a double-digit Cornyn victory which won't even happen anyway.

Did I predict a double-digit Cornyn victory without paying attention to the data? No, I didn’t. I tried to estimate who the undecideds will pick as we get closer to the election. You can call my analysis flawed, but I don’t think just criticizing the result is helpful.

Also, my double-digit Cornyn victory prediction was based on the LV sample which has Cornyn leading 43/29. The RV sample indicates a high single-digit Cornyn victory. Maybe that’s why you found it improbable.

Neither did I say you did. I'm talking about some people on the forum in general thinking it would happen.

Also, I was aware of the different samples. The reason I say it's improbable that Cornyn wins by double digits is that it suggests he's outperforming Trump by a large amount. Polarization will almost certainly ensure that Cornyn outperforming to such a degree won't happen. I can see him outperform by closer to 4 but that's it. Republicans are also tied to Trump even if some try to distance themselves away from him.

Obviously, we'll see a much better picture of where this race is at sometime later.

[Arizona Iced Tea]

I said Cornyn possibly could win by double digits and I was laughed off, but the polls do indicate that is indeed a possibility. Granted TX polls skew right a bit but even removing 2 points from GOP on this Cornyn is still up 8+

[MT Treasurer]

I said Cornyn possibly could win by double digits and I was laughed off, but the polls do indicate that is indeed a possibility. Granted TX polls skew right a bit but even removing 2 points from GOP on this Cornyn is still up 8+

If Cornyn is winning by double digits, TX will be the least of Democrats' worries.

[YE]

I said Cornyn possibly could win by double digits and I was laughed off, but the polls do indicate that is indeed a possibility. Granted TX polls skew right a bit but even removing 2 points from GOP on this Cornyn is still up 8+

Just as an FYI, last poll before 2018 from them was Cruz +4/Abbott +20. Election margin will likely be tighter this go around as well in an era of little ticket splitting.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Texas Senator by University of Texas on 2020-07-07

Summary: D: 26%, R: 37%, U: 31%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details