OK Medicaid Expansion
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Author Topic: OK Medicaid Expansion  (Read 2137 times)
ajc0918
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« Reply #25 on: July 01, 2020, 04:03:29 PM »

If medicaid expansion can pass in Oklahoma, which states would it NOT pass in? Maybe Wyoming?

It seems like it could pass anywhere given this result.
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Blair
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« Reply #26 on: July 01, 2020, 04:16:46 PM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative
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Adam Griffin
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« Reply #27 on: July 01, 2020, 04:28:02 PM »

The precinct map made me wonder, if the 5th was Oklahoma County + Norman, would that be a D leaning district?

Under 2018 Census population estimates and as others have said, it's too big - but it's very easy to create an Edmondson +19 district (could probably quite easily get it to Edmondson >+20 with some slight edits).

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Fubart Solman
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« Reply #28 on: July 01, 2020, 05:04:35 PM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative

Oh, absolutely. Things like the Death Penalty for example. We kept it and tried to streamline it in 2018 (or 2016? Can’t remember off the top of my head).
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peenie_weenie
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« Reply #29 on: July 01, 2020, 07:07:21 PM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative

Oh, absolutely. Things like the Death Penalty for example. We kept it and tried to streamline it in 2018 (or 2016? Can’t remember off the top of my head).

The key is that negative partisanship operates at the party level. If you take a no-name candidate and tell people their party, 40+% of voters will automatically have a negative perception of that candidate because they associate a suite of hot-button issues with the candidate. When you adopt the party label, most voters are going to assume you back those issues (and typically you do).

Even issues that are ostensibly partisan don't really cut across people's political identities the way that a political party will. Parties bundle issues together; ballot measures on single issues give voters a lot more wiggle room.

With that said, I actually can't think of very many conservative ballot measures that will outrun a Republican candidate. First thing that came to mind was the Nebraska death penalty repeal, but actually the vote against repeal only outran Trump by about 2 points.
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Oryxslayer
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« Reply #30 on: July 01, 2020, 08:11:40 PM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative

Oh, absolutely. Things like the Death Penalty for example. We kept it and tried to streamline it in 2018 (or 2016? Can’t remember off the top of my head).

The key is that negative partisanship operates at the party level. If you take a no-name candidate and tell people their party, 40+% of voters will automatically have a negative perception of that candidate because they associate a suite of hot-button issues with the candidate. When you adopt the party label, most voters are going to assume you back those issues (and typically you do).

Even issues that are ostensibly partisan don't really cut across people's political identities the way that a political party will. Parties bundle issues together; ballot measures on single issues give voters a lot more wiggle room.

With that said, I actually can't think of very many conservative ballot measures that will outrun a Republican candidate. First thing that came to mind was the Nebraska death penalty repeal, but actually the vote against repeal only outran Trump by about 2 points.

The gay marriage amendments from last decade are a good example. They typically outran the GOP because minority voters have views on social issues roughly similar to the distribution among whites, it's just they won't vote for the GOP because of perceived racism/nativism by association. African Americans, motivated by the communally important AA churches,   certainly went for these amendments.

Another example often seen at the local level is commuter transit expansion and development. You could say it's NIMBYism, but those voting against it are often wealthy who would be aligned with the conservatives if not for various things they associate the GOP with.

Potential conservative issues that could see similar success at the ballot are The Right to Die, decriminalization of dangerous drugs, and anything related to bodily or genetic modification if we ever get that technology.
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Nyvin
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« Reply #31 on: July 01, 2020, 08:29:04 PM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

I've read this is due to racism and "stick issues" like abortion or gun control that make Democratic Candidates toxic to right wing voters, even if they support general left wing policies like expanded medicaid.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #32 on: July 01, 2020, 10:42:44 PM »

Gun control ran behind hillary in 3 states in 2016.
Also I'm pretty sure Affirmative action usually runs behind.
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RINO Tom
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« Reply #33 on: July 02, 2020, 09:09:23 PM »

More evidence the progressive left needs to stop trying to pander to wwc. 

Yeah, Oklahoma just screams Obama-Trump, amirite.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #34 on: July 02, 2020, 10:31:46 PM »

Gun control ran behind hillary in 3 states in 2016.
Also I'm pretty sure Affirmative action usually runs behind.

What the heck does that have to do with OK voters supporting a major expansion of Health Care, in a State with one of the highest rates of uninsured Americans?

Seriously though, Pro-Choice initiatives in Oregon consistently out-perform Democratic Statewide Candidates....

Guns, Gays, God used to be a playbook the Pubs ran hard on for decades, but seems to be fading fast in many places.

The NRA has been exposed as a bankrupt and corrupt organization just within the past Year, with a dramatic collapse in membership especially since they became schills for the Gun Industry Big Time and essentially just like Big Tobacco and Big Alcohol (Yes--- I smoke and drink thank you with no apologies), where essentially they consistently parrot the messaging that helps more guns being sold to a smaller and smaller market of Americans.

"Gun Hoarders" now account for an insane amount of firearms within private hands, while meanwhile the vast majority of American Gun Owning families (Including many immediate family members and friends) might have maybe a few weapons in their household:

1.) Hunting Rifle---- Check
2.) Shotgun---   Check
3.) Handgun--- Check
4.) AR-15 Check

So, Guns aren't really an issue anymore outside of a small handful of Gun Hoarders...

Gays--- Not really an issue anymore outside of of some Fundamentalist Christian Haters, plus a few miscellaneous bigoted folks that don't tolerate the right for people to live & love & marry who they choose to be with.

God--- Pretty much the Fundi's are motivated by one single issue.... abortion, and to a lesser extent birth control.

Either way, looks pretty clear this whole movement is an attempt to control women's bodies when it comes to reproductive rights, and has little or nothing to do with anything out of the Gospel or Old Testament, or any other type of religious doctrine out there....

Power to the people and in many ways America is a much better country in 2020 than it was before, although obviously there is a much further road to walk down...

Keep Your Eyes on the Prize...




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Badger
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« Reply #35 on: July 06, 2020, 01:30:22 AM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative

How long ago was this? During Schwarzenegger's first term he Champion a lot of conservative ballot measures that all got massacred in the polls. He quickly backed off trying to be a partisan and became mr. Rockefeller Republican at work. I don't recall any such attempts since then.
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Blair
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« Reply #36 on: July 06, 2020, 01:47:32 AM »

I think what this shows is that there’s a perceived problem with the Democratic Party. Democratic Party policies are often popular on their own (see the numerous Medicaid referendums), but the party’s candidates aren’t. I’d assume that this comes from a lot of socially conservative and economically liberal voters who value social conservatism over economic liberalism.

FWIW I think there's a whole host of Conservative ballot measures that could pass; I know it was quite different back then but California was willing to elect democratic senators & strong majorities while passing ballot measures that were quite conservative

How long ago was this? During Schwarzenegger's first term he Champion a lot of conservative ballot measures that all got massacred in the polls. He quickly backed off trying to be a partisan and became mr. Rockefeller Republican at work. I don't recall any such attempts since then.

The 90s I think; was proposition 187 I was thinking of but the Gay Marriage Ban passing in 2008 was a pretty potent example of the same fact.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #37 on: July 06, 2020, 01:05:32 PM »



What's left on the table. Does anyone doubt that if it came down to a vote every single one of the Orange states would pass it?
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #38 on: July 06, 2020, 01:19:02 PM »



What's left on the table. Does anyone doubt that if it came down to a vote every single one of the Orange states would pass it?

Only SD, WY, MS, FL and MO can do this via initiative to begin with (out of the states which haven't yet expanded Medicaid).
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The Mikado
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« Reply #39 on: July 06, 2020, 01:24:41 PM »



What's left on the table. Does anyone doubt that if it came down to a vote every single one of the Orange states would pass it?

Only SD, WY, MS, FL and MO can do this via initiative to begin with (out of the states which haven't yet expanded Medicaid).

Yes. My point was that there's nowhere in America where this wouldn't pass if it could pass in Oklahoma.

The only states that won't pass it are places which either don't have referenda or places where there's a supermajority rule like FL's 60%.
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clever but short
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« Reply #40 on: July 06, 2020, 02:32:11 PM »

The precinct map made me wonder, if the 5th was Oklahoma County + Norman, would that be a D leaning district?

Well, first off the two counties would produce a very overpopulated district. If you cut out all the reddest turf in the two as you drop down to a district with pop equity, than it is possible to get a tossup seat using 2016 margins. Given what happened in 2018, such a seat would be well on its way to a blue future.
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