How many more congressmen will lose renomination?

[Tekken_Guy]

How many more congressmen will lose renomination this cycle? So far we’ve seen Lipinski, King, Engel, Riggleman, and Tipton go down. Who is next?

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Markey(sadly)

[Lognog]

As far as the house, MA 01 and MA 08 come to mind as Lynch and Neal have seen challengers do well in the past and seem to have pretty united opposition against them. In that same vein, there is MO 01 with the Clay v Bush rematch that should be interesting. Finally, the most likely flip yet to come is in KS 02 with Steven Watkins. His singular term has been plagued by sexual and electoral scandal and his opponent is the state treasurer.

edit: Watkins' electoral fraud was based off of the fact that he said he lived in an address that was a UPS. Sooo also a carpetbagger scandal.


In the senate it's probably Markey, which is quite sad.

So I would say at Markey and Watkins and maybe another one of the first three I mentioned. That being said, these things are huge surprises most of the time like Tipton today. And this cycle is no stranger to near misses with sleeper opposition like Maloney and Fitzpatrick

[NewYorkExpress]

Watkins and Markey.

[Coldstream]

Watkins and Markey. I think Neal will be fine. Lynch should lose but since we’ve not heard anything who knows. Though I hope Watkins does survive because I think he’s beatable in November.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Watkins and Markey are the only ones whose defeats are odds-on and we've already exceeded the average number of primary defeats in an electoral cycle.

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Lynch will not lose. Wu is a gadfly and as long as she insists on being his primary opposition he should be fine.

I don't see any more hotspots besides Markey for Senate, but given how many seats the progs are challenging, it's easy for one to slip under the radar.

[Pollster]

Wakins (though style-wise he's more similar to Boebert than Tipton).

NJ politicos have been making noise about Albio Sires, but I'll believe an NJ primary challenger wins when I see it.

[DINGO Joe]

Talib is still in danger, isn't she?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Talib is still in danger, isn't she?

Perhaps in danger, but I'd argue a heavy favourite, like lots of sitting Congresspeople (Neal, Clay etc).

[coloradocowboi]

Odds:

Watkins: 50%
Markey: 50%
Neal: 20%
Tlaib: 20%
Clay: 10%

[Oryxslayer]

Talib is still in danger, isn't she?

Perhaps in danger, but I'd argue a heavy favourite, like lots of sitting Congresspeople (Neal, Clay etc).

I would actually say that Tlaib is in more danger at this moment. Tlaib had a narrow path to 50%+1 against an AA candidate, but it involved winning the white portions of this district handily. These voters would almost certainly combine with the Detroit AAs to give the incumbent something near her 35% plurality from last time, if the election were held today. It however is not, and things may get better, or worse, for African American primary candidates going forwards.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Odds:

Watkins: 50%
Markey: 50%
Neal: 20%
Tlaib: 20%
Clay: 10%

Would love to see Clay get out. I hate dems who selfishly help  GOP gerrymander maps

[Left Wing]

only Markey

[Ferguson97]

Wakins (though style-wise he's more similar to Boebert than Tipton).

NJ politicos have been making noise about Albio Sires, but I'll believe an NJ primary challenger wins when I see it.

The Sires challenger liked my tweet when I said it was funny how Sires started using his campaign account again after like 8 years of inactivity

[Dr. MB]

like 5 or so but as for who I have no idea