Rate CO-03

[Lisa's voting Biden]

Incumbent Scott Tipton won by around 8 points in 2018.

He has seemingly lost his 2020 primary to Lauren Boebert, who has had associations with QAnon and further to the right than Tipton is.

How will this affect the November GE? Will Boebert keep the seat red or is this now a possible Democrat pickup?

[morgieb]

Assuming Boebert holds on, it's probably a Tossup. Dems have a real candidate here and the seat isn't all that red.

Under Tipton it's still Likely R.

[Donerail]

Tilt D, closer to lean than tossup. Boebert has $13,000 on hand and national GOP money is... not likely this year. She'll win it back next cycle when QAnon is a mainstream part of the GOP platform.

[Oryxslayer]

Let's make this even more juicy - Boebert is more or less broke with only 10K in the bank. CO03 isn't the best seat as far as ads go - it's split across three markets and only one is cost effective. The other two, Colorado Springs and especially Denver, aren't the cheapest especially if the presidential and senatorial battles are buying up ad space.

[NewYorkExpress]

Assuming Tipton doesn't miraculously recover, it's Lean D.

Biden is winning Colorado, and he might even run close enough in this district to make crossover voters relevant.

If Tipton does recover...Lean R.

Mitsch Busch is a strong challenger, and Biden is going to do better here than Hillary Clinton did.

[Roronoa D. Law]

Tossup. You have a potentially disastorous nominee, a likely Democratic wave, and Republicans have probably triaged Colorado already.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Lean R still. At this point, most of the GOP will stick with their guy no matter what, and do lots of mental gymnastics to vote for a crazy person just so they can win.

[LimoLiberal]

Wasserman only moved it to Likely R.

[ajc0918]

Lean R but closer to Likely R. Boebert has no money which will force the NRCC to spend here to defend the seat. The DCCC could make a play here, and they certainly have the resources to, but there are easier seats to pick up. Regardless this is good for the odds that democrats keep their majority.

[Gracile]

I'll be bullish and say Lean R, just because Colorado is showing some signs of drifting heavily toward Biden, making this district fairly close (to say nothing of Boebert's fundraising disadvantage and poor quality as a candidate herself). That said, I'm still not convinced that it will flip yet.

It's funny, though, because this district has always seemed like one that should be much more favorable to Democrats on paper.

[Tartarus Sauce]

If Boebert ends up winning this, it's a tremendous cock-up on the behalf of the GOP primary voters in this district. Bush underperformed expectations by quite a bit here in 2018 when she went up against Tipton. With Biden at the top of the ticket, a favorable Democratic national environment, and an absolutely dreadful Republican candidate, this district could very well end up getting put alongside VA-05 as a place where moronic decisions by the Republican primary electorate/party convention pushed a usually out of reach seat into the competitive column for Democrats. We'll soon see if Kansas GOP voters join the club with KS-Sen if Kobach gets the nom.

[libertpaulian]

This has to be the biggest own-goal for the GOP since Todd Akin in MO-SEN 2012.

[Nyvin]

Lean R,  closer to Likely than Tilt.

Outside of Aspen (which is tiny) this district really isn't moving left at all, in fact parts of it are becoming more Republican if anything.    I don't see a House candidate changing that much at all.

[Calthrina950]

Lean R,  closer to Likely than Tilt.

Outside of Aspen (which is tiny) this district really isn't moving left at all, in fact parts of it are becoming more Republican if anything.    I don't see a House candidate changing that much at all.

Agreed. Mitsch Bush has a better chance against Boebert then she would have had against Tipton, but it would still require for some luck for her to actually pull it off. As you've noted, some parts of the district have trended Republican. This is particularly true of ancestral Democratic strongholds Pueblo, Huerfano, and Conejos Counties, where Tipton won in 2018. Republicans also have substantial reservoirs of voting strength in Mesa, Montrose, and Montezuma Counties. As of right now, I would rate this district as Lean Republican, but we'll see how things develop.

[S019]

Lean R, this seat was only Tipton+8, and with this possibly being a more Dem year than 2018 and the R nominee being a crazy and conspiracy theorist, there's a chance that this flips, but I doubt it.

[Bidenworth2020]

FWIW, the polls we have for both the presidential and senate races in Colorado indicate that Biden and Hickenlooper could very well come close here. Tilt D.

[Horus]

Tilt R, closer to lean than Tossup.

[YE]

This only voted Trump +12 and Polis only lost it by 3. Biden could come close here and this district is at least somewhat ancestrally Dem. Tossup or Lean R.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Southern Colorado is one of the only parts of the state trending hard R. The fact Polis couldn't win this district even when he won by 10 points gives me doubt, especially because trends at the presidential level trickle down slower, so even if Biden is winning by more then Polis, I'm going to remain skeptical. But because this lady is such a lunatic, I'll definitely keep an eye on this one.

[YE]

This has to be the biggest own-goal for the GOP since Todd Akin in MO-SEN 2012.

Alabama Senate 2017?

[ctrepublican512]

the lady has $13k.... no way this doesn't flip

[7,052,770]

Isn't she that loony who replies to Biden's Tweets?


ETA - Yes. She's not even clever or funny about it.
https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1277986027878199297
https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1276971667730857986
https://twitter.com/laurenboebert/status/1274821901056118791

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Boebert is a perfect fit for the average white Colorado rur GOP voter but the Obama-trump hispanics that are trending R may not be as fond of her. But I still am not confident due to this polarized climate.

[Joseph Cao]

Still firmly Lean R, up slightly from Likely. I'm not too sure that Boebert will need to spend all that much, even considering the multiple media markets, when the seat itself is pretty Republican and the NRCC may step in to help her. Biden and Hickenlooper would have to win Colorado by double digits to get Mitsch Bush within striking distance in this district – which isn't out of the question as of now, to be fair.

That said, with Boebert as the nominee I will be rooting for Mitsch Bush. We're not taking back the House regardless, and the less QAnon nuts in Congress the better.

[😥]

Boebert is awful candidate, and in D+8-10 environment this seat will flip. Lean D