Hong Kong under National Security Law; Some Pro-Democracy disband political parties

[Continential]

https://www.cnn.com/2020/06/30/asia/hong-kong-china-national-security-law-intl-hnk/index.html

2047 came 27 years, 1 day early.

[brucejoel99]

The systematic destruction of HK in real-time has to be one of the single worst events that I've witnessed in my life. It's an embarrassment that nothing was done by the rest of the world to help, & I'm ashamed of my country for standing idly by without even a tweet.

[Storr]

Are they still going to hold elections this year?

[urutzizu]

Yes, they will.

Law is now in force, and therefore the Authorities have released the full details, which until now were kept secret:

-Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a minimum sentence of three years, with the maximum being life
-Inciting hatred of the central government and Hong Kong's government are now crimes
-Damaging public transport facilities can be considered terrorism
-Those found guilty will not be allowed to stand for public office
-Beijing will establish a new security office in Hong Kong, with its own law enforcement personnel - which would not be subject to Hong Kong's jurisdiction
-Hong Kong's chief executive can appoint judges in national security cases and the justice secretary can decide whether or not there is a jury
-Decisions made by the national security commission cannot be challenged legally
-Mainland China will take over prosecution in cases which are considered "very serious", while some trials will be secret
-People suspected of breaking the law can be wire-tapped and put under surveillance
-regulation of foreign non-governmental organisations and news agencies will be strengthened
-The law will also apply to non-permanent residents

Here is a full unofficial English translation of the Law:
https://transitjam.com/2020/06/30/national-security-law-english-translation/?fbclid=IwAR27bxLyVqib9pHHUxUnfusLQbKYH1BKRLK3IeSZPEBCH5G4TACMD8sbsbg

The turnout for protests tomorrow (July 1st is Handover Day in HK, a traditional protest holiday) will be a good indication of the extent this color revolution has broken down.

It will be the last gasp of a movement that is dying. Coronavirus isn't even a big factor anymore. Shops and restaurants are all full again. It's just that fatigue and realization of the fait accompli has set in among 99% of HK cantos. In polls support for the protesters is slipping and for the law increasing, they were not able to get almost anyone to turnout to protest an Issue so much more consequential than the extradition bill, Business and Investors have weighed their options and supported the Government, the Hang Seng has rebounded, and as predicted Joshua Wong and the others have jumped ship leaving their followers out to dry, though they may be arrested imminently now before they can leave, you'd truly hate to see it.

A lot will be written in the coming years about how a color revolution was born of nothing, and how it subsequently collapsed into nothing just as fast as it was born, but I think the Unrest in the US, and more importantly the US response to Coronavirus will be seen as crucial factors (in addition to those mentioned above).
A little while back a chinese nationalist artist named Wuheqilin made a number of drawings against the Hong Kong protest movement. One in particular became famous and was even promoted by official sources, its called A Pretender God.


C:Wuheqilin/GT

It's important to remember, as much as many of them disavow their chinese heritage, the experience of SARS and strong communitarian values of respect for elders and the sanctity of human life are still deeply ingrained in Hong Kong society. So when you almost literally worship a society like the US and then before your eyes it falls to its worst obsessions with cutthroat Individualism and absolute liberty, that makes you question central beliefs and tenants of your Identity. The exposure of the US as "a pretender god" facilitated the homecoming of many HKers into to Chinese camp.

[jaymichaud]

I know this is a place for discussion and all, but I simply have no words.

F**k Xi, F**k Carrie Lam.

[Continential]

Yeah, many Hong Kongers are leaving to go to the west or Taiwan.

[Storr]

Yeah, many Hong Kongers are leaving to go to the west or Taiwan.

Of course Trump won't welcome them.

[Kingpoleon]

The loss of Hong Kong will not last long. The people of Hong Kong, once integrated with China, will spread across the land. When the people of China hear the stories of freedom and liberty and compare it with their own lives under Beijing, nothing and no one will hold them down for long. Those who oppress their people, who restrict information, who wage injustice and evil, may rule for the night.

However, I have seen into the future: I have seen the glory of the dawn of true humanity, of freedom and justice over China. It will be the beginning of the end for dictators and those who do wrong. It will be the beginning of a new day for all mankind, a day of reconciliation which will know no end. This is the bright and brilliant future I’ve seen, and I pray that I may live to see just a minute of its beginning.

[PSOL]

The loss of Hong Kong will not last long. The people of Hong Kong, once integrated with China, will spread across the land. When the people of China hear the stories of freedom and liberty and compare it with their own lives under Beijing, nothing and no one will hold them down for long. Those who oppress their people, who restrict information, who wage injustice and evil, may rule for the night.

However, I have seen into the future: I have seen the glory of the dawn of true humanity, of freedom and justice over China. It will be the beginning of the end for dictators and those who do wrong. It will be the beginning of a new day for all mankind, a day of reconciliation which will know no end. This is the bright and brilliant future I’ve seen, and I pray that I may live to see just a minute of its beginning.

Ok, now this is some of the most ridiculous liberal fantasy playout I’ve ever seen. More realistically is that China quashes the protesters and Hong Kong goes the way of Tibet in American discourse; something once cared for by liberal internationalists wishing to defeat China but lost immense ground and care with time.

Most Chinese Mainlanders only know about the increased accessibility of commodity goods and real and perceived growth in living standards since the 1980s, and there exists next to no real opposition groups from a liberal perspective; just reactionary upper class urbanites hoping Donald Trump gets rid of the CCP-rule, cultists, and very weak separatists who have more of a presence in Arlington, VA than inside China. Unless the CCP starts failing seriously economically for quite some time and for the working class to abandon them, there won’t be any new political reforms or a revolution in China.

China unified under the CCP is here to stay, for better or worse.

[Joseph Cao]

A sad day for Hong Kong, its citizens, and all those who live and work in the city, though one that has been coming for a long time now. That I happen to be within the jurisdiction of the law is just icing on top of this entire travesty.

Regarding Joshua Wong and his associates: my understanding is that as of now they've only stepped down from their political roles as leaders of Demosisto, and Wong specifically has said he will "continue to stay in Hong Kong until they silence and wipe me out". Though I do expect him and some others to decamp overseas if push comes to shove and the Chinese government decides to prosecute them, as they probably will.

The loss of Hong Kong will not last long. The people of Hong Kong, once integrated with China, will spread across the land. When the people of China hear the stories of freedom and liberty and compare it with their own lives under Beijing, nothing and no one will hold them down for long.

Sadly, to the extent that Hong Kongers actually fan out across China (they won't; there's a parochialism within the community that largely powers a "Hong Kong identity" that won't go away), they will be treated as anarchists and (ironically) inciters and proponents of dangerous revolutionary ideals. You wouldn't be able to deprogram the misinformation about Hong Kong that China has fed its population for years with this kind of action.

Personally, I think China will fail eventually. But it's likely to be decades, if not centuries, before it does so.

[CumbrianLefty]

Personally, I think China will fail eventually. But it's likely to be decades, if not centuries, before it does so.

Well, you know what Keynes had to say about that.

[Zinneke]

Yes, they will.

Law is now in force, and therefore the Authorities have released the full details, which until now were kept secret:

-Crimes of secession, subversion, terrorism and collusion with foreign forces are punishable by a minimum sentence of three years, with the maximum being life
-Inciting hatred of the central government and Hong Kong's government are now crimes
-Damaging public transport facilities can be considered terrorism
-Those found guilty will not be allowed to stand for public office
-Beijing will establish a new security office in Hong Kong, with its own law enforcement personnel - which would not be subject to Hong Kong's jurisdiction
-Hong Kong's chief executive can appoint judges in national security cases and the justice secretary can decide whether or not there is a jury
-Decisions made by the national security commission cannot be challenged legally
-Mainland China will take over prosecution in cases which are considered "very serious", while some trials will be secret
-People suspected of breaking the law can be wire-tapped and put under surveillance
-regulation of foreign non-governmental organisations and news agencies will be strengthened
-The law will also apply to non-permanent residents

Here is a full unofficial English translation of the Law:
https://transitjam.com/2020/06/30/national-security-law-english-translation/?fbclid=IwAR27bxLyVqib9pHHUxUnfusLQbKYH1BKRLK3IeSZPEBCH5G4TACMD8sbsbg

The turnout for protests tomorrow (July 1st is Handover Day in HK, a traditional protest holiday) will be a good indication of the extent this color revolution has broken down.

It will be the last gasp of a movement that is dying. Coronavirus isn't even a big factor anymore. Shops and restaurants are all full again. It's just that fatigue and realization of the fait accompli has set in among 99% of HK cantos. In polls support for the protesters is slipping and for the law increasing, they were not able to get almost anyone to turnout to protest an Issue so much more consequential than the extradition bill, Business and Investors have weighed their options and supported the Government, the Hang Seng has rebounded, and as predicted Joshua Wong and the others have jumped ship leaving their followers out to dry, though they may be arrested imminently now before they can leave, you'd truly hate to see it.

A lot will be written in the coming years about how a color revolution was born of nothing, and how it subsequently collapsed into nothing just as fast as it was born, but I think the Unrest in the US, and more importantly the US response to Coronavirus will be seen as crucial factors (in addition to those mentioned above).
A little while back a chinese nationalist artist named Wuheqilin made a number of drawings against the Hong Kong protest movement. One in particular became famous and was even promoted by official sources, its called A Pretender God.


C:Wuheqilin/GT

It's important to remember, as much as many of them disavow their chinese heritage, the experience of SARS and strong communitarian values of respect for elders and the sanctity of human life are still deeply ingrained in Hong Kong society. So when you almost literally worship a society like the US and then before your eyes it falls to its worst obsessions with cutthroat Individualism and absolute liberty, that makes you question central beliefs and tenants of your Identity. The exposure of the US as "a pretender god" facilitated the homecoming of many HKers into to Chinese camp.

I really don't care how misguided the Hong Kong localists and pro-democracy activists are, it's no excuse whatsoever to chuck 500 odd of them in prison. I wish you would be subjected to just a week I a Chinese prison for espousing your edgy views and then return to give us another wonderful puff piss about the CCP model. I'm sure it would be very educational.

[urutzizu]

I really don't care how misguided the Hong Kong localists and pro-democracy activists are, it's no excuse whatsoever to chuck 500 odd of them in prison. I wish you would be subjected to just a week I a Chinese prison for espousing your edgy views and then return to give us another wonderful puff piss about the CCP model. I'm sure it would be very educational.

I am not defending the law here (which, again, goes too far; I preferred the 2003 draft which was written in accordance with HK's common law traditions and relatively in line with what many western countries had, and not what this is: essentially, Mainland Chinese socialist/civil law by fiat without even an english translation and which is less aimed at criminalising Sedition and Separatism, perfectly legal and right for a democratic society to do, but eroding all opposition to CCP rule (as evidenced by HK police arresting people with ROC flags today). Besides, most of my post was my analysis so to speak of the situation, not opinion. The fact that the Hong Kong protest movement is dying is hardly wishful thinking, it's a fact, as evidenced by turnout today and the last couple of weeks. Equivocating defending Chinese integrity with support of the CCP, and, even worse, conversely thinking that opposing Chinese integrity is a good way to oppose the CCP, is a massive historical mistake from western people, I cannot stress this point enough, that the West put it's Eggs in the Joshua Wong or Baggio Leung basket instead of the Wang Yang basket will prove to be your undoing.

[jaichind]

Are they still going to hold elections this year?

The election is for sure on.  If anything various localism parties not being able to stand due to the new law makes the chances of an anti-establishment majority more likely since now the anti-establishment vote will be less likely to be splintered.  But in many ways the CCP does not care. They did what they did because they can justify it given the shift of the opposition to a more pro-HK independence stance.  They also need to cover their nationalist flanks of their own Mainland constituencies.  So as far as CCP is concerned they got what they wanted an the anti-Establishment captures a majority I do not thing that is that high on their priority list.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

The CCP can't afford to have alternatives to their continued misrule be available, and I think they realized that they'd never have a better opportunity to go after democracy in Hong Kong than now. More worrisome in my opinion is the recent saber-rattling over Taiwan. Hopefully, it has been nothing more than a way to keep Taiwan from declaring Taiwanese independence from China as a reaction to the extinguishing of democracy in Hong Kong.

Anyway, I think the only way democracy is likely to come to the mainland this century is if the CCP starts being an actual democracy internally. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening. Historically, democracy developing within an oligarchic autocracy has only happened in response to the oligarchy worrying about the autocrat colluding with a foreign power to ensure his continued hold on power in a manner detrimental to the interests of the oligarchs. (See for example, Britain in the 17th century.) There is no credible threat external to China and Xi hasn't been detrimental to the CCPs oligarchs as a whole, so even an optimistic view on the prospects for Chinese democracy will require waiting for what happens after Xi.

[Beet]

I really don't care how misguided the Hong Kong localists and pro-democracy activists are, it's no excuse whatsoever to chuck 500 odd of them in prison. I wish you would be subjected to just a week I a Chinese prison for espousing your edgy views and then return to give us another wonderful puff piss about the CCP model. I'm sure it would be very educational.

I am not defending the law here (which, again, goes too far; I preferred the 2003 draft which was written in accordance with HK's common law traditions and relatively in line with what many western countries had, and not what this is: essentially, Mainland Chinese socialist/civil law by fiat without even an english translation and which is less aimed at criminalising Sedition and Separatism, perfectly legal and right for a democratic society to do, but eroding all opposition to CCP rule (as evidenced by HK police arresting people with ROC flags today). Besides, most of my post was my analysis so to speak of the situation, not opinion. The fact that the Hong Kong protest movement is dying is hardly wishful thinking, it's a fact, as evidenced by turnout today and the last couple of weeks. Equivocating defending Chinese integrity with support of the CCP, and, even worse, conversely thinking that opposing Chinese integrity is a good way to oppose the CCP, is a massive historical mistake from western people, I cannot stress this point enough, that the West put it's Eggs in the Joshua Wong or Baggio Leung basket instead of the Wang Yang basket will prove to be your undoing.

Honestly, they went too extreme. Once they started advocating for HK independence, they lost a lot of support on the mainland. When I asked my parents about this a while ago, the first thing my dad (who is usually pretty liberal) said, "You can't have HK independence." Of course, there's no real hope in the Wang Yang basket either. My eggs were in there 8 years ago (!), but it was pretty much thrown on the ground at the 18th National Congress.

Wang Yang isn't there? All the press reports are saying the progressive reformist faction got crushed by the dead hand of Jiang. China may really need an Arab-Spring like event to get political change.

The entire Communist Youth League faction was subsequently decimated. If only Ling Jihua's numbskull of a playboy son hadn't been trying to have sex with two Tibetan women while driving a Ferrari at high speed things might have been different, but maybe not.

[Continential]

The United Kingdom is accepting 3 million Hong Kong refugees.

https://www.theguardian.com/politics/2020/jul/01/china-is-breaking-hong-kong-treaty-with-uk-says-boris-johnson

Taiwan is accepting  refugees.

[Mr. Illini]

I have a hard time believing that this will come to pass without more violence. If anything, I would think that this would be viewed as a last chance among the HK people to avoid full Chinese autonomy 27 years earlier than the law states.

27 years of political freedoms is a lot to fight for. But, they'll need international voices to give them support. There's no one home at the White House, as the President seems more interested in his trade deal. There's no one home in the EU either, as they continue to appease China and Russia for economic purposes.

So far, it seems that the only international figure that wants to meaningfully way in is...Boris Johnson?

Another reason America needs Biden in the White House. Hillary would've been even stronger on this issue.

[Green Line]

Another reason America needs Biden in the White House. Hillary would've been even stronger on this issue.

Biden's record on China over the years is incredibly weak and naive, worse than almost any other high profile leader from either party.

I agree that Hillary would have been great on an issue like this.  RIP.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

It's time to slap some steep tariffs on Chinese goods for this, coronavirus, and their treatment of the Uighurs.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Another reason America needs Biden in the White House. Hillary would've been even stronger on this issue.

Biden's record on China over the years is incredibly weak and naive, worse than almost any other high profile leader from either party.

I agree that Hillary would have been great on an issue like this.  RIP.

Neoliberals are always weak on China. China gave big to Clinton's 1996 re-election, and he got them admitted to the WTO. Hunter Biden helped China oppress the Uighurs. And Bloomberg said that Xi isn't a dictator.

[PSOL]

Another reason America needs Biden in the White House. Hillary would've been even stronger on this issue.

Biden's record on China over the years is incredibly weak and naive, worse than almost any other high profile leader from either party.

I agree that Hillary would have been great on an issue like this.  RIP.

Neoliberals are always weak on China. China gave big to Clinton's 1996 re-election, and he got them admitted to the WTO. Hunter Biden helped China oppress the Uighurs. And Bloomberg said that Xi isn't a dictator.

Well someone is on a roll recently...

[jaichind]

After the July 1st protests plus a bunch of arrests the HK market is up 2.85%.  HK is now up almost 6% since 5/21 when the announcement came out about the new security laws.  Since end of May HK markets are up over 11% and have way outperformed Taipei, Tokyo and Soeul during the same period.   All things equal the view of investors is that the protests will peter out and the city will go its old goals of making money.

[jaichind]

I usually spend 2 weeks in APAC every year on a business trip which would include Tokyo, HK and Singapore.  I will not be able to make it this year due to the virus so I will not be able to get a on-the-ground look at what is going on in HK.  Of course most of the time there I would be spending time with my team so my observations would be limited.  My trip last year in Dec last year gave me the impression seems that the 2019 local elections got the marginal anti-Establishment voter to let off some steam and most likely the protest movement will go into decline.  The the virus crisis came so my theory was not really tested.  Too bad I will not be able to make observations this year.    Maybe next year.

[CumbrianLefty]

Another reason America needs Biden in the White House. Hillary would've been even stronger on this issue.

Biden's record on China over the years is incredibly weak and naive, worse than almost any other high profile leader from either party.

I agree that Hillary would have been great on an issue like this.  RIP.

Before or after she had started her war with Russia?