MO (Garin-Hart-Yang): Biden+2 (Galloway Internal)

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Missourians feel a loss of pride from no longer being a bellwether.

I expect a poll showing Trump up by 1 in Delaware sometime soon.

[pbrower2a]

Outlier for now until corroborated.

Missouri is basically divided as if it were dumbbells in Kansas City and St. Louis with a bar at the Missouri River connecting them. Or US-50 if you wish. Aside from the dumbbells anything to the north is a lot like Iowa and anything to the South is much like northern Arkansas -- OK, West Virginia. Except for the toll-booths and length you could hardly tell the West Virginia Turnpike from I-44 between St. Louis and Springfield. St. Louis and Kansas City are nasty places in which to live for poverty, high crime, and low educational achievement... stereotypical Rust Belt.    

Is there a spread on approval and disapproval? There was a poll of Arkansas that had 50% disapproval in Arkansas. (50% approval for Trump in Arkansas would indicate big trouble for him! Trump should be up 55-42 or higher in Arkansas if he is to even be close nationally. At least that poll came from an entity that has done fairly regular polling of Arkansas, and it has typically been favorable to Republicans in Arkansas -- nothing to ever tease us with the idea that Arkansas could be close for any Democrat for at least ten years.

There is no reason to believe that Joe Biden ever was a good match for the Mountain South (Ozarks and central and southern Appalachia), so if the numbers are bad for Trump, then the fault lies with Trump.  

[Alben Barkley]

Outlier for now until corroborated.

Missouri is basically divided as if it were dumbbells in Kansas City and St. Louis with a bar at the Missouri River connecting them. Or US-50 if you wish. Aside from the dumbbells anything to the north is a lot like Iowa and anything to the South is much like northern Arkansas -- OK, West Virginia. Except for the toll-booths and length you could hardly tell the West Virginia Turnpike from I-44 between St. Louis and Springfield. St. Louis and Kansas City are nasty places in which to live for poverty, high crime, and low educational achievement... stereotypical Rust Belt.    

Is there a spread on approval and disapproval? There was a poll of Arkansas that had 50% disapproval in Arkansas. (50% approval for Trump in Arkansas would indicate big trouble for him! Trump should be up 55-42 or higher in Arkansas if he is to even be close nationally. At least that poll came from an entity that has done fairly regular polling of Arkansas, and it has typically been favorable to Republicans in Arkansas -- nothing to ever tease us with the idea that Arkansas could be close for any Democrat for at least ten years.

There is no reason to believe that Joe Biden ever was a good match for the Mountain South (Ozarks and central and southern Appalachia), so if the numbers are bad for Trump, then the fault lies with Trump.  

Well he's done a lot better there than Hillary (2016) and Obama did in the primaries. As I mentioned in that thread, he ended up doing better in Kentucky than any Dem candidate since 2000, including unopposed Obama in 2012 when "uncommitted" got 42% of the vote and won a number of counties. Similar situation in West Virginia. He also did almost as well in Missouri even when the primary was still being contested, winning over 60% and every county.

Honestly, not out of the question he's the best fit for the region since Gore if not Bill Clinton. Doesn't mean he will actually win these states, of course, but could explain some of these polls showing the margins a lot closer than expected.

[pbrower2a]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.

[ultraviolet]

MO is almost certainly not competitive, but the fact that you can even get a poll like this shows just what a gigantic landslide 2008 would have been if a "generic D" like Biden would have been nominated then. The country is too polarized now though.

Interesting, I think Obama did very well, the big difference is McCain was an acceptable candidate for most Republicans. Bush running for a third term would have done worse, as Trump looks to do badly.

Obama did well, but I recall a study suggesting a generic (read: white) Democrat "should" have done even better given all the factors going against the GOP that year. I'm pretty sure Clinton or Edwards definitely would have won Missouri, at least.

Eh, Obama definitely energized many people to vote and it’s hard to see anyone else doing much better than him. But there’s no way to really know. I don’t think Clinton would’ve won MO though; she did pretty horrendously there in 2016 even taking trends and everything into account.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

Betting markets are taking this poll seriously (or are overreacting to it). Trump-MO was at 85 cents on PredictIt, now down to 80 cents.

Trump-Indiana also fell 5 cents after the IN-05 poll that showed Biden +10. Both states are now being seen as legitimately in play, which I would need a whole lot more polling data to accept.

[Orwell]

Betting markets are taking this poll seriously (or are overreacting to it). Trump-MO was at 85 cents on PredictIt, now down to 80 cents.

Trump-Indiana also fell 5 cents after the IN-05 poll that showed Biden +10. Both states are now being seen as legitimately in play, which I would need a whole lot more polling data to accept.

I would take this opportunity to buy Missouri for Trump and Indiana for Trump shares

[Suburbia]

Even if it's 15 points off its still bad news for Trump.

[Statilius the Epicurean]

Why is this a crazy poll? Obama lost Missouri by a hair in 2008 while losing non-college whites 60/40. That's about how well Biden has been doing with non-college whites in a few recent national polls I've seen.

[redjohn]

It's unrealistic for people to think that if Biden is leading nationwide by ~10 points, he's not close in MO. Yes, it's very unlikely Biden wins MO, but if he's winning WI/MI by double digits, I don't think it's crazy that MO would be fairly close.

[Progressive Pessimist]

Show me.

Pun intended.

[Hope For A New Era]

Why is this a crazy poll? Obama lost Missouri by a hair in 2008 while losing non-college whites 60/40. That's about how well Biden has been doing with non-college whites in a few recent national polls I've seen.

There's your problem. You need Missouri polls of non-college whites, not national polls. Missouri non-college whites are very populist, borderline West Virginian at this point.

[Spark]

Fundamentally flawed.

[pbrower2a]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.

Obvious. Iowa is a must-win for Trump, but not a must-win for Biden. Take Hillary Clinton's wins, and if Biden wins Michigan (Michigan looks gone for Trump) and Pennsylvania, then Iowa is the smallest state in electoral votes that reasonably has any chance of deciding the election for Biden, at least based upon the state's recent history. Sure, a state with three electoral votes such as Montana, Alaska, or either Dakota would defeat Trump -- but only one of those states has voted for a Democratic nominee for President after 1964. The two often wayward second Congressional districts would also put Biden at 270 if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania with Trump flipping nothing toward him... but that is a 'low-likelihood' event.

Missouri used to vote Democratic except in Republican blowouts. That is over.       

[Former Dean Phillips Supporters for Haley (I guess???!?) 👁️]

The only world where Missouri is competitive is a world where Biden is winning the national popular vote by probably at least 15 points, and perhaps more like 20.

[Pulaski]

Would be nice, but nah.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Forget it, Ds arent winning MO

[wbrocks67]

The only world where Missouri is competitive is a world where Biden is winning the national popular vote by probably at least 15 points, and perhaps more like 20.

Dems won by 8-9 in 2018 and McCasill only lost by 5. If Biden is up 10-12 nationwide, not hard to see MO being competitive.

[Beefalow and the Consumer]

If Biden is anywhere close to being close in Missouri, then Trump is toast. Georgia and Texas both go to Biden before Missouri does.

If anything, if Missouri is close, Iowa is gone for Trump.

Obvious. Iowa is a must-win for Trump, but not a must-win for Biden. Take Hillary Clinton's wins, and if Biden wins Michigan (Michigan looks gone for Trump) and Pennsylvania, then Iowa is the smallest state in electoral votes that reasonably has any chance of deciding the election for Biden, at least based upon the state's recent history. Sure, a state with three electoral votes such as Montana, Alaska, or either Dakota would defeat Trump -- but only one of those states has voted for a Democratic nominee for President after 1964. The two often wayward second Congressional districts would also put Biden at 270 if Biden wins Michigan and Pennsylvania with Trump flipping nothing toward him... but that is a 'low-likelihood' event.

Missouri used to vote Democratic except in Republican blowouts. That is over.       

The last time Missouri was to the left of the tipping point was 1992. Changing demographics, the upland South and Mississippi Valley realigning, yadda yadda.

[Kalimantan]

Yet Galloway is down 7?!

Usually downballots outperform the upballots.  Are they sure they didn't mix those races up?

If the Republican downballot is outperforming the upballot, then it stands to logic that the Democrat downballot will underperform the upballot

[VAR]

ayy lmao

[Hope For A New Era]

It's fine, this state has proven that it doesn't deserve Galloway.