Texas-PPP: Biden +2
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  Texas-PPP: Biden +2
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Author Topic: Texas-PPP: Biden +2  (Read 2127 times)
S019
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« Reply #25 on: July 04, 2020, 04:04:45 PM »

Pure tossup and Democrats need to go all-in on flipping this, not only are these 38 electoral votes, basically the nail in the coffin for Trump's hopes, but there's also a key Senate race, and the state House is up for grabs, which would give Democrats two years of divided government. Not to mention, finally flipping TX, would finally convince a lot of the state's top Democratic politicians that it isn't fools gold and maybe they'd be willing to put in some effort in the 2022 midterms.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #26 on: July 04, 2020, 04:40:08 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2020, 04:44:52 PM by Monstro »

Pure tossup and Democrats need to go all-in on flipping this, not only are these 38 electoral votes, basically the nail in the coffin for Trump's hopes, but there's also a key Senate race, and the state House is up for grabs, which would give Democrats two years of divided government. Not to mention, finally flipping TX, would finally convince a lot of the state's top Democratic politicians that it isn't fools gold and maybe they'd be willing to put in some effort in the 2022 midterms.

Regarding extremes, I lean towards this over "Don't even lift a finger. If It flips, Biden is winning nationally anyway".

I'm of the belief that, besides a President Biden, the most consequential thing Democrats can do this election is solidify their groundwork in Texas. That includes investing into flipping the State House and flipping the handfuls of US House seats that seem to be easier to grab by the week. If even half the effort is put in, I can see Democrats in prime position to give the Texas GOP & Ted Cruz a scare in the 2022 AG/Lt. Gov races and 2024 Senate race (Even if Biden somehow faces a cataclysmic Midterm)
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redjohn
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« Reply #27 on: July 04, 2020, 05:26:07 PM »

Pure tossup and Democrats need to go all-in on flipping this, not only are these 38 electoral votes, basically the nail in the coffin for Trump's hopes, but there's also a key Senate race, and the state House is up for grabs, which would give Democrats two years of divided government. Not to mention, finally flipping TX, would finally convince a lot of the state's top Democratic politicians that it isn't fools gold and maybe they'd be willing to put in some effort in the 2022 midterms.

Regarding extremes, I lean towards this over "Don't even lift a finger. If It flips, Biden is winning nationally anyway".

I'm of the belief that, besides a President Biden, the most consequential thing Democrats can do this election is solidify their groundwork in Texas. That includes investing into flipping the State House and flipping the handfuls of US House seats that seem to be easier to grab by the week. If even half the effort is put in, I can see Democrats in prime position to give the Texas GOP & Ted Cruz a scare in the 2022 AG/Lt. Gov races and 2024 Senate race (Even if Biden somehow faces a cataclysmic Midterm)

This is true, although our most important task is defeating Trump, which is obviously done by flipping states that are far more likely to go for Biden. Concentrate resources in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona to make sure these states go blue. With leftover resources, target FL, GA, NC, TX, etc.

Restoring the upper midwest is the easiest path to the Presidency for Biden. It flipped back by giant margins in 2016, and if it slips away again this time I believe it will have been preventable.
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #28 on: July 04, 2020, 06:25:39 PM »
« Edited: July 04, 2020, 10:29:57 PM by Monstro »

Pure tossup and Democrats need to go all-in on flipping this, not only are these 38 electoral votes, basically the nail in the coffin for Trump's hopes, but there's also a key Senate race, and the state House is up for grabs, which would give Democrats two years of divided government. Not to mention, finally flipping TX, would finally convince a lot of the state's top Democratic politicians that it isn't fools gold and maybe they'd be willing to put in some effort in the 2022 midterms.

Regarding extremes, I lean towards this over "Don't even lift a finger. If It flips, Biden is winning nationally anyway".

I'm of the belief that, besides a President Biden, the most consequential thing Democrats can do this election is solidify their groundwork in Texas. That includes investing into flipping the State House and flipping the handfuls of US House seats that seem to be easier to grab by the week. If even half the effort is put in, I can see Democrats in prime position to give the Texas GOP & Ted Cruz a scare in the 2022 AG/Lt. Gov races and 2024 Senate race (Even if Biden somehow faces a cataclysmic Midterm)

This is true, although our most important task is defeating Trump, which is obviously done by flipping states that are far more likely to go for Biden. Concentrate resources in Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Arizona to make sure these states go blue. With leftover resources, target FL, GA, NC, TX, etc.

Restoring the upper midwest is the easiest path to the Presidency for Biden. It flipped back by giant margins in 2016, and if it slips away again this time I believe it will have been preventable.

That's why I said "besides President Biden" because I'm very aware of the "Campaign exclusively in AZ/MI/PA/WI" take. Feels like I've heard it here every day for the last 6 months.

There comes a time when there's only so much campaigning & spending you can do in one state. Targeting is one thing, but so is overcompensation and diminishing returns. Hell, Hillary campaigned harder in PA than MI/WI combined and still lost PA by a bigger margin than the latter two.

And when would be a good time to use leftover resources? He's already got tons more money than Hillary ever got and there doesn't seem to be room if Democrats "campaign as if he's down 10%".

Not to mention, campaigning in Texas isn't the worst move Biden could make this year. He could always campaign in DC, Oklahoma & South Dakota.
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