Which senate map was better for Ds?
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  Which senate map was better for Ds?
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Question: Which senate map was better for Ds?
#1
2016
 
#2
2020
 
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Total Voters: 16

Author Topic: Which senate map was better for Ds?  (Read 267 times)
ProgressiveModerate
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« on: June 29, 2020, 08:52:05 PM »

I'm voting the 2016 map. In 2016, they had no one who was DOA, and the really only vulnerable seat they had to defend was NV. IL became virtually guarenteed to flip, and they could've flipped WI and PA if they hadn't forgotten about the rust belt. They also had potential pick ups in NH and NC. They made MO and IN competative through "strong" canidates but ended up loosing both. I feel like Ds really screwed up on the senate in 2016, and became lazy in a lot of races, and ended up losing by dissapointing margins (IN, OH, WI, PA, NC).

Even though 2020 follows 2014 which was an R wave year, many of the seats that Rs flipped in 2014 are not going to be won back by Ds in 2020 (LA, AR, SD, WV). Gardner is really the only R who was DOA, but that's cancelled out by Jones in AL (although it's better to have Jones there than an R). They've only turned this senate map in their favor through strong canidates and R screw ups (AZ, ME, MT are prime examples of this). I think Ds are taking the senate more seriously from a better palette of canidates. this time than in 2016, which is making the senate more competative.
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 09:03:59 PM »

Imo there both equally good, however how good the map is depends on the political environment. 2016 was R leaning so despite many targets Ds came up short. 2020 has a lot of R leaning territory, if the environment wasn’t so bad for the GOP, the Dems wouldn’t be in as good as a position as they are now.

Tbh Republicans only hold the Senate if Biden barely wins (270-290EVs, Anything above 300 probably flips it) or Trump squeaks out a win. If Trump gets a second term, the map in 2022 is gonna be a blood bath. PA, WI, and maybe even NC are probably gone, also GA is probably tossup to Tilt D. Also AZ , regardless of whether Kelly wins is Likely/ Safe D.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2020, 09:12:28 PM »

Imo there both equally good, however how good the map is depends on the political environment. 2016 was R leaning so despite many targets Ds came up short. 2020 has a lot of R leaning territory, if the environment wasn’t so bad for the GOP, the Dems wouldn’t be in as good as a position as they are now.

Tbh Republicans only hold the Senate if Biden barely wins (270-290EVs, Anything above 300 probably flips it) or Trump squeaks out a win. If Trump gets a second term, the map in 2022 is gonna be a blood bath. PA, WI, and maybe even NC are probably gone, also GA is probably tossup to Tilt D. Also AZ , regardless of whether Kelly wins is Likely/ Safe D.

In addition to KS and OH as reach states, MO would be a sleeper if there's a second Trump term. Kander almost certainly wouldn't run but Roy Blunt is a weak incumbent and there's a bench there if a few former incumbents can be brought out of semi-retirement. Would Jay Nixon be a strong candidate?
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WD
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Junior Chimp
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2020, 09:19:31 PM »

Imo there both equally good, however how good the map is depends on the political environment. 2016 was R leaning so despite many targets Ds came up short. 2020 has a lot of R leaning territory, if the environment wasn’t so bad for the GOP, the Dems wouldn’t be in as good as a position as they are now.

Tbh Republicans only hold the Senate if Biden barely wins (270-290EVs, Anything above 300 probably flips it) or Trump squeaks out a win. If Trump gets a second term, the map in 2022 is gonna be a blood bath. PA, WI, and maybe even NC are probably gone, also GA is probably tossup to Tilt D. Also AZ , regardless of whether Kelly wins is Likely/ Safe D.

In addition to KS and OH as reach states, MO would be a sleeper if there's a second Trump term. Kander almost certainly wouldn't run but Roy Blunt is a weak incumbent and there's a bench there if a few former incumbents can be brought out of semi-retirement. Would Jay Nixon be a strong candidate?
Nixon said in an interview that he’s not interested in the Senate.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.governing.com/topics/politics/gov-missouri-governor-jay-nixon-democrat-interview.html%3fAMP

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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2020, 09:56:49 PM »

2016 was but Strickland,  Bayh and McGinty all cratered. Sestak was the better nominee and McGinty became ALG of 2016
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