City-States of America

[OBD]

For this project, I took the 25 largest Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) in the US, and made them states, while dividing the remaining land into 26 states with roughly equal populations. The result is a 51-state Union, with 435 representatives, 102 Senators, and 537 electoral votes. For population equality, Alaska has been folded into Oregon (green PNW state), and Hawai'i has been folded into Central Valley (green Central California state). I used the tool Figueira posted in the Redraw America thread (https://tonymoo2228.github.io/StatesFun/) for this map. The largest state in this scenario is New York City, while the smallest is Orlando.

I'll attempt to provide an overview of the politics of each state, including theoretical Governors, Senators, and district maps (with 2010 numbers), and rate the states for 2020. I'll also post results from past elections at the end of the project, though interestingly this map does not change any elections from 2004-2016.

link to redraw america map

[OBD]

Seattle

The city-state of Seattle covers just three OTL counties - Snohomish, King, and Pierce counties - as well as the smaller cities of Tacoma and Everett. And as would be expected, it's solidly Democratic. In 2004, Seattle voted for Kerry by a fairly robust margin of 20.86%. However, over the next 12 years, the region would continue a heavy leftward trend, voting for Obama '08 by nearly 32%, and Clinton '16 by over 37% - a rare state to vote further left in 2016 than in the 2008 wave election. Given that Seattle is made up of a titanium-D urban core, surrounded by prosperous, diverse suburbs, these drastic trends are unsurprising.

2020 Outlook: If it wasn't already clear, Safe D. Biden could plausibly widen the margin to 40% or more here.

Capital: For most of the city-states, capitals are pretty obvious, and Seattle is no exception. Seattle is well-centered within the state, and there isn't any reason to put the capital somewhere else.

Governor: Jay Inslee would never have forayed into politics east of the Cascades in this scenario, but he's progressive enough to be Seattle's Governor. Look out for Kshama Sawant potentially challenging for this seat in the future, though.

Senators: Maria Cantwell (Class 1) and Patty Murray (Class 3) both hail from the Seattle area, and should hold their seats. They could be vulnerable to primary challenges in the future, though - perhaps from Pramila Jayapal?

House of Representatives:

With Seattle (obviously) under uncontested Democratic rule, a 5-0 map would seem inevitable. Interestingly, though, it's actually quite easy to pull off without cracking Seattle proper with slightly redder suburbs. Under the relatively clean/fair above map (which would have been drawn with 2008 Election numbers), no seat would be under Obama +13.5, and this would hold through 2016, where the most Republican seat (the Tacoma-based 5th) would be Clinton +12.2. While it's possible that a Dave Reichert could have held down the 4th district for a while (in 2008, it's actually slightly redder than Reichert's old 8th), suburban #trends make Kim Schrier pretty much Safe for 2020. That said, the 5th could plausibly flip in a good year for Republicans, though I sincerely doubt Seattle would have a coherent enough Republican Party to do the job.

[OBD]

Portland

The city-state of Portland is, as of 2010, the third-smallest state by population, and just barely made the cut for qualification as a city-state. And as in real life, the city-state of Portland would serve as a smaller, more conservative Seattle, voting for Kerry by 15 points, Obama '08 by nearly double that, and Clinton '16 by a similar margin (just .45% off). Like Seattle, city-state Portland would be dominated by fiercely liberal urban areas and growing suburban areas. And, while Clackamas, Clark, and the exurban counties might vote Republican from time to time, the outcome here - even in downballot elections - should never be in doubt.

2020 Outlook: Safe D

Capital: Portland is the obvious choice here.

Governor: Kate Brown's a Portlander, so she'll do.

Senators: Ron Wyden (Class 3) and Jeff Merkley (Class 2) hold their seats, though Merkley (who hails from Myrtle Creek) would, like Inslee, be forced to carpetbag.



House of Representatives

Sadly, graphic design is not my passion, so you'll be confronted with similarly contorted maps for alternate states whose borders cross OTL state lines. Additionally, my analysis of the districts won't be as accurate or detailed. Sorry!

Anyway, with 3 districts, mapping Portland from a Democratic perspective is pretty easy. Instead of the Cascades, the Columbia River would be the magic line that districts would be forbidden from crossing - nonetheless, drawing a solid 3-0 is pretty simple. Firstly, the current OR-1 would remain pretty much intact and Safe, taking in more of Portland to compensate for Clatsop County. As Portland north of the Columbia would have around 430k people in 2010 (and would have a roughly R+1-2 PVI), a fairly safe district could be created by tying Clark and Skamania counties to a 200k chunk of East Portland, while Kurt Schrader's district would mop up the remaining ~300k people in Multnomah plus Clackamas County. That said, Schrader could certainly be more vulnerable to primary in his new, bluer home - and depending on how the lines were drawn Blumenauer could actually have landed in the same district as him.

[America Needs a 13-6 Progressive SCOTUS]

Interesting. I disagree with a few of your choices regarding this project, but I am still excited to see the result.

[😥]

Interesting!

[OBD]

Oregon

Oregon is the Pacific Northwest state without said region's urban centers, and thus, to maintain population equality it takes in Alaska, Idaho's Panhandle, and Western Montana. As a result, Oregon is the largest state by land area in the union, and remains one of the most sprawling even discounting Alaska. Consequently, politics in this state are highly complex - west of the Cascades, generally moderate-to-conservative rural areas are dotted with liberal enclaves (Bellingham, Olympia, Corvallis, and Eugene, to name a few), while Oregon east of the Cascades is a mix of more liberal ski towns (Bend, Missoula), working-class regions (OTL western Montana, Yakima, Pendelton, Spokane?), and your typical farmland Republicans. Freed from the shackles of Portland and Seattle, this new Oregon is one of the more conservative states in the Union, though it's also quite elastic. The state voted for Bush '04 by a healthy 12-point margin, but swung significantly to the left during the 2008 wave election. Since then, Democratic losses in WWC counties have led the GOP to gradually regain ground here, with Romney winning by 5 and Trump by 10.

Oregon Election Results - 2004-2016
2004: Bush +12.31
2008: McCain +1.92
2012: Romney +5.48
2016: Trump +10.12

2020 Outlook: Despite discouraging elections in 2012 and 2016, Democrats still have a path to improvement here - run up the score in the liberal bastions of Olympia and Eugene, get decent margins in R-leaning towns like Medford, Salem, Yakima, and Spokane, and win back voters in ancestrally Democratic areas like Western Montana and the Oregon-Washington coast. While a win here can't be ruled out in a Biden landslide, it will certainly be an uphill climb.                      Likely R, closer to Safe than Lean.

Capital: I think Yakima is a solid choice for Oregon's new capital - it's a good-sized, well-centered city whose location and politics reflect those of new Oregon's.

Governor: There's an interesting choice to make here - while Alaska and Montana tend to vote a good deal to the left downballot, OTL Oregon and Washington do the opposite (though a good chunk of pro-R ballot-splitting comes from suburban Portland and Seattle). As the most recent election would come in the Democratic year of 2018, I'll go on a limb and say Steve Bullock wins the seat back after a two-term Republican governor retires.

Senators: Oregon has OTL Idaho's Senate classes (Class 2 and Class 3). As these classes line up with the 2010 and 2014 wave elections, I suspect that Oregon'll have two Republican senators. Cathy McMorris Rogers (Class 2)Lisa Murkowski (Class 3) work, though the former could face a competitive election against a Steve Bullock type this year.

House of Representatives

Pictured above is an approximation of what a fair map would look like, and given Oregon's elasticity, a fair map is actually fairly likely for this state (plus, there's the boon that the above map splits fairly neatly along county lines). Under this map, Democrats would hold two seats (DeFazio's 4th5th district, and an Olympia-based 2nd district, held by someone other than Derek Kilmer as he doesn't live in the state) through the 2010s fairly easily. The 3rd district, a mix of liberal Western Washington and conservative Central Washington, would be perpetually close, voting for Romney and Trump by one point each, but would probably go Democratic in 2018. The 4th district, an awkwardly shaped union of Centralia, Kelso, OTL Oregon's North Coast, and Salem, would be near-even in 2012 but move to Trump +8 in 2016, and could also be a plausible target for Democrats. In terms of the other seats, the Alaska-at-large 1st district and the eastern OR/WA 6th and 7th districts would be pretty safely Republican (Trump +17 and Trump +23), while Cathy McMorris Rogers's old Trump +18 Spokane-based seat would reprise it's OTL role as fool's gold for Democrats and the Montana-based 9th would be a Republican-leaning (also Trump +18), but elastic, seat. In 2018, Democrats would likely hold the 2nd and 5th, win the 3rd, and come close in the 4th and 9th seats, for a 6-3 Republican delegation.

[OBD]

California (VOID)

This scenario's California is nowhere near as large, diverse, or nationally visible as it's predecessor, with the glamorous cities of San Francisco and Los Angeles (San Diego too if you're being pedantic) removed. However, the state still represents many communities, from conservative State of Jeffersoners in the north, to outskirts of San Francisco, to Sacramento and her suburbs, to the northern edge of the Central Valley (which sadly had to be split for population equality). These changes are reflected in politics as well = while the old California was a Democratic bastion still trending rapidly left, this California votes for Democrats by low double digits (even voting for Bush narrowly in 2004), and isn't trending left quite as fast. Northern conservatives would definitely prefer this new California, given their increased political influence - however, if the new state makes voting liberal a habit, the old secessionist movements may crop up again.  

California Election Results (2004-2016)
2004: Bush +2.44
2008: Obama +13.08
2012: Obama +11.01
2016: Clinton +13.63

2020 Outlook: Based on the most recent results, California has shed its Republican roots, and the state should be in the bag for Biden come 2020. Safe Biden

Capital: While Redding, Yuba City, and Chico could all make plausible bids for California's capital (the latter two as more central cities, the former as the de-facto Jefferson capital), Sacramento, as the state's largest city and commercial center, is the logical choice. Not to mention that there's already an OTL capital there.

Governor: OTL California Lt. Governor and Sacramento native Eleni Kounalakis is a logical choice for the seat.That said, this seat could very well have been held by Republicans until the 2018 wave year.

Senators: Mayor of Sacramento Kevin Johnson (Class 1) and Representative Ami Bera (Class 3) should do.

House of Representatives

As mentioned earlier, there would probably be a Republican governor in office when these districts were drawn, so the resulting map would most likely be more favorable to them than one would expect. Something like the above map would do. The 4th, 6th (turquoise), and 8th districts would all be majority-minority seats and Democratic packs, with the 8th being a Hispanic and the 4th and 6th minority coalition seats. The Clinton +42 2nd seat would pack coastal Democrats, while the Obama +5 and Clinton +8 5th district would, like the OTL California 7th district, be the swingiest seat in the region. Lastly, the remaining districts, all of which hovered at around McCain +9, would secure 3 Republican representatives from California - in 2016, the bluest of the trio (the exurban Sacramento 3rd), would vote for Trump by 10. As a result, after 2018 a 5-3 D delegation would be virtually assured (though the 3rd district may have been close). However, with Democrats in full control of the state government (and thus the redistricting process), the dwindling California GOP would have no such guarantee for 2022.

[Joseph Cao]

Marvelous work! And, personally, I quite like the interstate maps – they give the project a certain je ne sais quoi that complements the detail you've put into the political overviews.

[OBD]

Marvelous work! And, personally, I quite like the interstate maps – they give the project a certain je ne sais quoi that complements the detail you've put into the political overviews.

Thanks!! I'm glad you like it.

[OBD]

San Francisco (VOID)

The state of San Francisco (potentially also known as Golden Gate or Pacifica - no shortage of alternate names here) encompasses most of the Bay Area, as well as the islands of Hawai'i. Initially, I placed them with the Central Valley, but upon further reflection San Francisco is probably the region Hawai'i has the closest ties to. Regardless, this state is the bluest one in the Union - in 2004, Kerry won here by nearly 40 points, in 2008, Obama widened the margin to nearly 54 points, and in 2016, Clinton defeated Trump by an obscene 59.29% (notably winning the Bay Area part of the state by over 64%). Consequently, the Greens are probably the main opposition party here, given how the floor has completely fallen out for Republicans over the past years.

2020 Outlook: Safe D

Capital: San Francisco is the only reasonable choice.
 
Governor: Gavin Newsom is a good pick for the seat.

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Dianne Feinstein (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do,.

House of Representatives

A 8-0 map is secure pretty much any way you draw it - under this map, the least Democratic district in the Bay Area is still Clinton +33, and the Hawaiian districts remain the same (I'd expect there'd be some kind of rule prohibiting cross-Pacific districts, because, that would be grotesque). However, due to population, crossing the Bay twice is actually required (once to balance population in the San Mateo County seat and once to link the relatively little Marin County to the mainland). Under the above map, 4 of the 6 Bay Area seats are minority coalition, with the 2nd and 3rd being Asian oppurtunity seats. Marin gets placed in SF as it's a better match than placing it in poor, minority-heavy Richmond.  

[😥]

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Mazie Hirono (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do, representing the diversity of the state. 

What happened with Dianne Feinstein? She was Mayor of San Francisco for 10 years and I think in this scenario she still be in the Senate? And also, great job!

[OBD]

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Mazie Hirono (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do, representing the diversity of the state. 

What happened with Dianne Feinstein? She was Mayor of San Francisco for 10 years and I think in this scenario she still be in the Senate? And also, great job!

Oh, whoops, forgot about her. Yeah, she'd still be in the Senate.

Thanks, by the way!

[Orwell]

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Mazie Hirono (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do, representing the diversity of the state. 

What happened with Dianne Feinstein? She was Mayor of San Francisco for 10 years and I think in this scenario she still be in the Senate? And also, great job!

Oh, whoops, forgot about her. Yeah, she'd still be in the Senate.

Thanks, by the way!

Would Harris be taking the seat from Daniel Inouye who died in 2012? I'd thought they would usually have 1 mainlander Senator and 1 Islands Senator for representation.

[OBD]

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Mazie Hirono (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do, representing the diversity of the state. 

What happened with Dianne Feinstein? She was Mayor of San Francisco for 10 years and I think in this scenario she still be in the Senate? And also, great job!

Oh, whoops, forgot about her. Yeah, she'd still be in the Senate.

Thanks, by the way!

Would Harris be taking the seat from Daniel Inouye who died in 2012? I'd thought they would usually have 1 mainlander Senator and 1 Islands Senator for representation.

That isn't a rule, no (sadly for Hawaiians).

[OBD]

Central Valley (VOID)

Stretching from San Jose to Bakersfield, this state covers the parts of California between the metroples of San Francisco and Los Angeles. The Central Valley, despite its name, is actually a mix of the high-tech South Bay Area, California's liberal Central Coast, and the namesake Central Valley - resultantly, its voting patterns are slightly different than the name suggests. While CV is still positioned to the right of OTL California, it's still a decidedly blue-leaning state - Kerry won here by a relatively lean 5-point margin, before two Obama wins by nearly 20 points and a Clinton win by nearly 30. While downballot elections - especially east of the Coast Ranges - will be won or lost based on Hispanic turnout, the western half of the state should keep Central Valley under Democratic lockdown for the foreseeable future.

Election Results 2004-2016
2004: Kerry +5.07
2008: Obama +19.73
2012: Obama +19.69
2016: Clinton +27.25

2020 Outlook: Don't let Bush's strong 2004 performance fool you - robust D trends across the state make it nothing other than Safe D.

Capital: This is the first state where there isn't a clear-cut capital pick. San Jose, the state's largest city, offers a diverse, high-tech base, but is also located at the far end of the state. Santa Cruz or Monterrey, though better-centered, might also be too "West-centric" for the state - and they're also a good deal smaller than your typical state capital. Personally, I like Fresno - though arguments can be made for a multitude of Central Valleyan () cities.

Governor: There's certainly a dearth of Central Valley residents on California's political stage. State Superintendent Tony Thurmond works, though.

Senators: Central Valley inherits Alaska's Senate classes (Class 2 and Class 3). Charles Reed (Class 2) and Zoe Lofgren (Class 3) are plausible Senate choices.

House of Representatives

I would expect Central Valley to be under Democratic control during 2010 redistricting, though the presence of a redistricting commission would also be likely. Anyway, minority concerns make a fair map, like the one above, fairly probable. Under this map, the 1st would be an Asian VRA seat (hence the odd shape), while the 2nd, 5th, 6th and 7th would be Hispanic opportunity seats. While 7 of CV's 8 districts voted for Clinton by double digits, fluctuating Hispanic turnout in the Central Valley mean that Republicans will outperform their on-paper numbers. For instance, while OTL CA-21 voted for Clinton by 15.5, it just barely flipped in 2018 - and, on this map, the 5th (Clinton +14.7) and 7th (Clinton +13.3) are both redder, while the Fresno-based 6th is just 0.2 points to the left of TJ Cox's district. While all three districts are less Hispanic than the 21st, turnout issues will still dog Democrats here, and could potentially produce 4-4 maps following GOP wave years like 2014. That said, after 2018, I would expect a 6-2 delegation - the 1st-4th districts are Safe for Democrats and the 5th and 6th should flip by this point. Conversely, Democrats would likely fall just short in the 7th, and the 8th (probably represented by Kevin McCarthy) would be a Republican cakewalk.

[OBD]

Okay, so I've made an executive decision to redraw the Bay Area due to concern that San Jose/Santa Clara County belonged in the San Francisco state. Here are the changes:

Santa Clara County -> San Francisco
Marin County -> California
San Joaquin, Calaveras, Tuolumne, Stanislaus, Apline, Mono, Inyo counties (3 from Deseret) -> Central Valley
Washoe, Storey, Douglas, Lyon, Carson City (from Deseret) -> California

These changes create a more cohesive Bay Area, while also balancing population between the other two Californian states and Deseret. I'm voiding the current California updates (which will remain up), and expect to have redone maps out soon.

[OBD]

California (ACTUAL)

The second edition of this scenario's California receives slight changes - losing Stockton and the northern part of the Central Valley in exchange for Marin County and the Reno-Carson City-Lake Tahoe area. Due to these changes, the political trajectory of this state is slightly modified. This California voted for both Gore and Kerry by thin margins, before swinging hard to Obama in 2008 and giving Democrats double-digit margins every election since. While the addition of deep-blue Marin County provides a boost to Democratic margins here, California remains the part of OTL California whose leftward trends have (relatively) stalled - with voter patterns in its WWC-heavy north emulating Southern Oregon more than Southern California.

California Election Results (2004-2016)
2000: Gore +0.29
2004: Kerry +2.04
2008: Obama +16.72
2012: Obama +12.76
2016: Clinton +15.72

2020 Outlook: Still Safe Biden

Capital: Sacramento remains the most logical choice, though the centering is significantly worse now.

Governor: OTL California Lt. Governor Eleni Kounalakis

Senators: Mayor of Sacramento Kevin Johnson (Class 1) and Representative Ami Bera (Class 3)

House of Representatives

As California may well have had a split government as late as 2010 (not to mention the possibility of an IRL-style commission), a fair map is the most likely possibility. Under the above map, the 1st, 3rd, 4th, and 5th districts would give Democrats margins in excess of 60% consistently, with the 4th serving as a minority seat (that said, the 3rd and 5th also have significant minority contingents). Meanwhile, the State of Jefferson 2nd seat and the other Sacramento 6th seat would be Republican, at least to start the decade (the Trump +12 6th could plausibly flip in a wave year, though). California's one swing seat would be the Reno-based 7th - encompassing the Lake Tahoe area in addition to Reno-Carson City, it would vote for Obama by 6 points in 2008 - but move to Trump +4 in 2016. I would expect Republicans to be in possesion of the seat after the 2016 elections, though it would be one of Democrats's top targets come 2018. In conclusion, a 5-2 delegation is the most likely outcome, though I wouldn't bet against a 6-1.

[OBD]

I should have an update ready by later today. The district maps for all the Californian states are completed, I just need to write up some things.

[OBD]

San Francisco (ACTUAL)

The modified state of San Francisco now encompasses San Jose. However, it's politics don't change much - it's still the most Democratic state in the country, and is also one of the most diverse.

2020 Outlook: Safe D

Capital: San Francisco is the only reasonable choice.
 
Governor: Gavin Newsom is a good pick for the seat.

Senators: San Francisco inherit Hawai'i's Senate classes. Dianne Feinstein (Class 1) and Kamala Harris (Class 3) will do.

House of Representatives

A 10-0 map is secure pretty much any way you draw it. Most of the intricacies on this map come from drawing lines to increase minority representation - the 8th district snakes from Richmond inland to be a Hispanic seat, while the 7th seat takes in Berkeley to increase minority % in the 6th. Lastly, the 5th is a majority Asian seat, while the 2nd and 3rd are both Asian oppurtunities. I'm pretty happy with the above map, (Hawai'i remains the same as OTL) though Berkeley and Hayward could plausibly be switched.

[GM Team Member and Senator WB]

to make CA's map cleaner it'd make sense to put the nearly uninhabited northern Washoe county with the second (down to about Pyramid Lake)

[OBD]

to make CA's map cleaner it'd make sense to put the nearly uninhabited northern Washoe county with the second (down to about Pyramid Lake)

That's also an alternative - it depends on whether the CA commission/legislature values county lines or compactness more (I'd personally support the latter). It won't affect the partisan breakdown, though.

[OBD]

Alright, here's the last of the revised Californian states - all updates from this point forward are for new states.

Central Valley (ACTUAL)

This Central Valley state is far more true to its name - it now encompasses California's heartland, from Stockton to Bakersfield, as well as coastal cities like Santa Cruz, Monterey, San Luis Obispo, and Santa Barbara. It's also the most Republican state to emerge from former California, voting for Bush twice by healthy margins. However, like the rest of the state, it's swung hard against Republicans, voting for Obama '08 by 7 and Clinton by 10. While Hispanic turnout could adversely affect Democratic performances here from time to time (especially in midterms and the like), the state is still pretty much out of reach for Republicans.   

Election Results 2004-2016
2004: Bush +5.26
2004: Bush +8.36
2008: Obama +7.76
2012: Obama +7.03
2016: Clinton +10.96

2020 Outlook: Robust D trends across the state make it nothing other than Safe D.

Capital: Fresno is a good pick - it's both  populous and well-centered.

Governor: There's certainly a dearth of Central Valley residents on California's political stage. State Superintendent Tony Thurmond of Monterey works, though.

Senators: Central Valley inherits Alaska's Senate classes (Class 2 and Class 3). Losing San Jose only decreases the number of viable Central Valley Senate candidates - Jim Costa (Class 2) and Salud Carbajal (Class 3) are plausible Senate choices, though in any case Democrats should hold both seats by this point.

House of Representatives

I would expect Central Valley to be under Democratic control during 2010 redistricting, though the presence of a redistricting commission would also be likely. Anyway, the fair (but slightly D-tilting) above map is not dissimilar to California's current map, with several 2018 pickups (Josh Harder, TJ Cox) likely occuring as well - the 4th District (successor to the 10th) and the Hispanic VRA 7th District (successor to the 21st) both shift slighty to the left. Similarly, the Fresno-based 5th and the Stockton-based 3rd would be seats with solid Democratic leans that could flip if Hispanic turnout crashes in a Republican wave year. Meanwhile, while the remaining districts would be fairly solid for incumbents, the Trump +8 6th (likely occupied by Devin Nunes) could plausibly fall, as it's 2 points to the left of it's OTL predecessor.
[/quote]

[OBD]

Btw - this AND my other TL will be updated eventually - I'm currently attending a summer program and resultantly don't have time to write updates.

[OBD]

Los Angeles

Los Angeles, the 2nd largest state in the Union, covers Ventura, Los Angeles, and Orange counties - while also exerting influence well beyond its borders as the West Coast's premier city-state. As the city-state title implies, LA is overwhelmingly urban and suburban, though the Antelope Valley and the Oxnard-Ventura region are distinct from core LA in both geography and character. Predictably, Los Angeles is strongly Democratic - voting blue in every post-2004 election by gradually increasing margins. Thanks to relatively conservative Orange County, LA's actually tracked pretty close to OTL California's margins, though in 2016 the state voted about 9 points left of California - motivated by Orange County's dramatic shift left.

Election Results 2004-2016
2004: Kerry +13.72
2008: Obama +28.67
2012: Obama +28.45
2016: Clinton +39.75

2020 Outlook: Safe D.

Capital: Los Angeles, obviously

Governor: Former LA Mayor Antonio Villaraigosa likely takes the job - I'm guessing most governors here are former Mayors of Los Angeles

Senators: Los Angeles inherits Montana's Senate classes. Adam Schiff (Class 1) and Alex Padilla (Class 2) work.

House of Representatives

Thanks to the VRA and several diverse groups with unique interests, there's a lot of moving parts in LA redistricting, and the above map is just an approximation of how I thought things could turn out (I'm not an expert on CA redistricting though). That said, especially considering how the 2018 elections went, LA's delegation is probably dominated by Democrats currently. The 2nd district, the successor to Mike Garcia/Katie Hill's 25th district, moves 4 points left to Clinton+11, but Garcia's robust 2020 win means that he probably still holds on here (though Christy Smith has a very good chance in the general). Moving over to Orange County, only 2 other LA districts are plausibly competitive - the OC leftovers 17th and the South OC 19th. The 17th district, likely represented by Harley Rouda, is Clinton +5, and thus is a likely Dem flip in 2018. However, the 19th district is R+7 and Trump+3, making it a harder lift for whichever Democrat (probably Mike Levin) that runs in 2018. As Levin won by nearly 13 points and the 19th is 10 points more Republican than its predecessor, I'll say he flips it, though it would be a much more close-run affair. In conclusion, a 18-1 delegation is the likeliest outcome, with the potential to become 19-0 again after 2020.