I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.
You have a point, though we can also say the country still isn't
totally polarized on a state level, given New England having an affinity of electing Republicans to the gubernatorial offices, while rejecting them on a federal level. Even over twenty years ago you could see a trend, with Bill Weld failing to unseat Kerry despite winning reelection by a historic margin two years prior. Today people like Phil Scott or Charlie Baker would've get utterly decimated if they ran for Senate.
