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  Talk Elections
  Other Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Gubernatorial/State Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, Virginiá)
  Could Perry have been defeated in 2006 in a two way race
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Author Topic: Could Perry have been defeated in 2006 in a two way race  (Read 641 times)
Old School Republican
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« on: June 29, 2020, 01:34:22 pm »

Given how bad he did and it doesn’t seem like other candidates were conservatives. Maybe Chet Edwards could have beaten him
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President Johnson
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 01:37:23 pm »

I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2020, 02:23:53 pm »

I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.

The country was less polarized then though , and Democrats won the gubernatorial race in Oklahoma in not only 2006 but 2002 as well and Oklahoma even then was more Republican than Texas. Though they would need someone like Chet Edwards to pull it off and if it was a tossup George W Bush would probably go all in making sure TX stays Republican as while W Bush was unpopular nationally he was still very popular in TX.

Though the pathway to victory would have to resemble Ann Richards 1990 win more than the modern dem party pathway to winning in Texas
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2020, 06:05:02 pm »

I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.
I mean in 2010 the nominee got obama numbers in tx.(better in rural, worse in urban about the same in suburbs and harris)
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TrendsareUsuallyReal
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2020, 08:15:16 pm »

I don’t know if he would’ve lost, but Texas Republicans almost lost the state House in 2006 after just having gotten it for the first time. There was some backlash in regards to the state’s poor handling of education if I remember right
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The Mikado
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2020, 10:11:28 pm »
« Edited: June 29, 2020, 10:15:35 pm by The Mikado »

He could have been defeated in a two way race...against Carole Five Names Strayhorn running as an Indy, with no Dem.

Against Bell? No way.

EDIT: And then Strayhorn would've rejoined the GOP the day after the election.

Strayhorn was running as an indie as a way to skip a primary against Perry that she would have been guaranteed to lose, and there was real bad blood between them. Strayhorn was basically the head of the TXGOP's moderate wing and doing an end-run around the primary process and getting elected governor on her personal popularity wasn't an entirely crazy idea.
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Old School Republican
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2020, 04:14:00 am »

He could have been defeated in a two way race...against Carole Five Names Strayhorn running as an Indy, with no Dem.

Against Bell? No way.

EDIT: And then Strayhorn would've rejoined the GOP the day after the election.

Strayhorn was running as an indie as a way to skip a primary against Perry that she would have been guaranteed to lose, and there was real bad blood between them. Strayhorn was basically the head of the TXGOP's moderate wing and doing an end-run around the primary process and getting elected governor on her personal popularity wasn't an entirely crazy idea.

Bell has no chance I agree, but what about Chet Edwards.


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The Mikado
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2020, 11:02:04 am »

He could have been defeated in a two way race...against Carole Five Names Strayhorn running as an Indy, with no Dem.

Against Bell? No way.

EDIT: And then Strayhorn would've rejoined the GOP the day after the election.

Strayhorn was running as an indie as a way to skip a primary against Perry that she would have been guaranteed to lose, and there was real bad blood between them. Strayhorn was basically the head of the TXGOP's moderate wing and doing an end-run around the primary process and getting elected governor on her personal popularity wasn't an entirely crazy idea.

Bell has no chance I agree, but what about Chet Edwards.




I doubt any Dem could've won in 2006, even someone like Chet Edwards (who btw didn't really have a statewide profile...Waco's not exactly a big media market and he only got talked about as "that one Dem who somehow keeps winning George W. Bush's ultra-Republican House district"). The Dems not running anyone and letting Strayhorn run as an Indy was probably the only viable way of beating Perry.
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jimmie
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2020, 11:17:34 am »

I vaguely remember someone joking that a transgendered porn star named Kinky Carole Bell could have defeated Perry head on.
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Ishan
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« Reply #9 on: June 30, 2020, 01:04:39 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?
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Kalwejt
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« Reply #10 on: June 30, 2020, 01:30:45 pm »

I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.

You have a point, though we can also say the country still isn't totally polarized on a state level, given New England having an affinity of electing Republicans to the gubernatorial offices, while rejecting them on a federal level. Even over twenty years ago you could see a trend, with Bill Weld failing to unseat Kerry despite winning reelection by a historic margin two years prior. Today people like Phil Scott or Charlie Baker would've get utterly decimated if they ran for Senate.
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President Johnson
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« Reply #11 on: June 30, 2020, 01:49:24 pm »

I previously asked this myself as well. But I just don't see it a Democrat being elected statwide in 2006. Maybe the race would have been within single digits, but Perry would have pulled it off by at least seven points or so.

You have a point, though we can also say the country still isn't totally polarized on a state level, given New England having an affinity of electing Republicans to the gubernatorial offices, while rejecting them on a federal level. Even over twenty years ago you could see a trend, with Bill Weld failing to unseat Kerry despite winning reelection by a historic margin two years prior. Today people like Phil Scott or Charlie Baker would've get utterly decimated if they ran for Senate.

They wouldn't win in a senate race unless there is a really terrible Democrat running, but Baker would give Markey or Warren a run. Now I know that Montana is a little different from all these states, but the fact that Steve Bullock has a real shot (and that Jon Tester won in 2018) still means the person itsself can be such a factor that overcomes certain partisan leanings, even at the senate level. I'm not sure this would have worked in Texas in 2006, though. Perry may have been not that popular, but he wasn't as unpopular as Christie or Corbett toward the end of their terms. At this point, the state didn't have a Democratic governor in over a decade and the last one was considered popular and still lost reelection by a fair margin to someone who didn't have political credentials other than being the son of a former president.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #12 on: June 30, 2020, 04:02:34 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
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Ishan
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2020, 04:40:22 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
Didn't he join the Democrats in 2009.

Who could win, as a Democrat in 2006 as Bullock was dead and Richards was dead?
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morgieb
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2020, 08:43:03 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
It's crazy he did about as well as he did. He basically ran on edginess alone and didn't have the same kind of socio-cultural grievences that the modern Trumpist right does. Do that today and you'd be lucky to win 1% of the vote.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2020, 10:11:53 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
It's crazy he did about as well as he did. He basically ran on edginess alone and didn't have the same kind of socio-cultural grievences that the modern Trumpist right does. Do that today and you'd be lucky to win 1% of the vote.

Kinky Friedman is a unique guy. He's VERY old Texas. Insanely edgy, provocative, doesn't give a s**t what you think about him (I know from personal experience), larger than life, rude (I know from personal experience), smells bad (I know from personal experience), and a damned talented writer/lyricist. Kinky wrote hilarious, incredibly transgressive songs, and wrote hilarious, transgressive comedy books. He helps take care of dogs in the Texas Hill Country. He lived in Kerrville, in the middle of nowhere in the most beautiful part of Texas, in the countryside, and regularly played Austin. He's very, very, very Texas. (More recent arrivals just wouldn't get it, he's been integral in Texas for nearly half a century). This weirdo Jewish cowboy left-wing country music singer who hangs out with his sidekick Lil' Jewford ("So called because he's a Jew and he drives a Ford") is closer to a folklore character than an actual human being. In 2006 he proved it because the REALITY of Kinky couldn't come close to matching the character of Kinky he'd been building since the 70s.

EDIT: Thinking of him as a Jewish Willie Nelson might go a LONG way to clarifying how this is this vaguely lefty guy who is inexplicably adored by ultra-right wing rednecks in rural Texas.
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Ishan
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« Reply #16 on: July 01, 2020, 08:25:31 am »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
It's crazy he did about as well as he did. He basically ran on edginess alone and didn't have the same kind of socio-cultural grievences that the modern Trumpist right does. Do that today and you'd be lucky to win 1% of the vote.

Kinky Friedman is a unique guy. He's VERY old Texas. Insanely edgy, provocative, doesn't give a s**t what you think about him (I know from personal experience), larger than life, rude (I know from personal experience), smells bad (I know from personal experience), and a damned talented writer/lyricist. Kinky wrote hilarious, incredibly transgressive songs, and wrote hilarious, transgressive comedy books. He helps take care of dogs in the Texas Hill Country. He lived in Kerrville, in the middle of nowhere in the most beautiful part of Texas, in the countryside, and regularly played Austin. He's very, very, very Texas. (More recent arrivals just wouldn't get it, he's been integral in Texas for nearly half a century). This weirdo Jewish cowboy left-wing country music singer who hangs out with his sidekick Lil' Jewford ("So called because he's a Jew and he drives a Ford") is closer to a folklore character than an actual human being. In 2006 he proved it because the REALITY of Kinky couldn't come close to matching the character of Kinky he'd been building since the 70s.

EDIT: Thinking of him as a Jewish Willie Nelson might go a LONG way to clarifying how this is this vaguely lefty guy who is inexplicably adored by ultra-right wing rednecks in rural Texas.
The precinct maps for Friedman vs. Perry would have been interesting for sure.
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Indy Texas
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« Reply #17 on: July 01, 2020, 10:27:35 pm »

What if Kinky Friedman had ran as a Democrat?

The guy who refused to stop saying the word "n***er" every other interview in a statewide run in 2006? As a Democrat? LOL. Perry would get like a quarter of the black vote.
It's crazy he did about as well as he did. He basically ran on edginess alone and didn't have the same kind of socio-cultural grievences that the modern Trumpist right does. Do that today and you'd be lucky to win 1% of the vote.

Part of the reason a Kinky campaign wouldn't work nowadays is that the type of voters disposed to be left-leaning are increasingly intolerant of the kind of "un-PC" rhetoric and behavior he engages in, in a way that wasn't the case in the 2000s.

Young Millennials were fine with Kinky. Young Zoomers would never stand for him. Left Twitter would explode.
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