PA (FOX 43): Biden +5
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  PA (FOX 43): Biden +5
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Author Topic: PA (FOX 43): Biden +5  (Read 1791 times)
Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« on: June 29, 2020, 12:52:51 PM »



Couldn't find more details
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 12:54:02 PM »

It’s Susquehanna.

C- rating on 538.
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Buzz
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2020, 12:54:17 PM »

Not a terrible poll for Trump given the current climate.  Not exactly great either lol
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Granite City
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2020, 12:54:26 PM »

48-42 in April.
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Bidenworth2020
politicalmasta73
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2020, 12:59:03 PM »

More details on the poll here. Honestly a solid poll for Trump if you look at the crosstabs, trends, and priorities of the voters. This pollster isn't great, though, so who knows.

https://www.fox43.com/mobile/article/news/biden-leads-trump-by-five-points-in-fox43-susquehanna-polling-and-research-survey/521-3944bc02-f008-49d5-9318-76a5a5436611
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psychprofessor
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« Reply #5 on: June 29, 2020, 01:00:05 PM »

ooof the incumbent at 41 in a swing state
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Dr Oz Lost Party!
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« Reply #6 on: June 29, 2020, 01:04:22 PM »

More details on the poll here. Honestly a solid poll for Trump if you look at the crosstabs, trends, and priorities of the voters. This pollster isn't great, though, so who knows.

https://www.fox43.com/mobile/article/news/biden-leads-trump-by-five-points-in-fox43-susquehanna-polling-and-research-survey/521-3944bc02-f008-49d5-9318-76a5a5436611

Never thought the bar would dip so low that we would call a 41% result a “solid poll” for an incumbent president in a state he won four years ago.
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Darthpi – Anti-Florida Activist
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« Reply #7 on: June 29, 2020, 01:10:54 PM »

Seems like more undecideds than there should be, but the margin is reasonable.
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The Mikado
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« Reply #8 on: June 29, 2020, 01:37:32 PM »

It IS a solid poll for Trump, but only due to the high number of undecideds.

And "solid" is really circumstantial, obviously. Down 5 in a borderline must win state for Trump like PA is obviously not great for him, but it's better than the kind of numbers he has been getting.

It would be interesting if Biden beat Trump in PA by 5, because Obama beat Romney in PA by 5, so the map comparing the two results would be fascinating.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #9 on: June 29, 2020, 01:38:01 PM »

Eh, just seems questionable. Somehow there is more undecided voters here than in April?!

Also, I don't buy the Wolf +7 approval, either. I don't expect the margins that were coming from April, but even before all of this, he was regularly in the 50s.

Susquehanna's not the best, so just throw it in the average
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Person Man
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« Reply #10 on: June 29, 2020, 01:48:06 PM »

It collaborates a story where Pennsylvania has become a Tilt R state in a Likely D environment.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2020, 01:55:18 PM »

We need more GOOD polls of PA. With the exception of the NTY/Siena poll, there still haven't been many lately for some reason.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2020, 02:36:16 PM »

Both this and the Trafalgar pollsters are Republican pollsters.

They might be good in Republican years such as 2016 or the 2014/2010 midterms, but not this year - when there’s a likely surge of voters who want to get rid of Trump.
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Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #13 on: June 29, 2020, 03:38:08 PM »

Good news for Biden in PA and MI, WI is a tossup
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #14 on: June 29, 2020, 03:50:13 PM »

It collaborates a story where Pennsylvania has become a Tilt R state in a Likely D environment.

how is Biden +5 tilt R?
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Annatar
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« Reply #15 on: June 29, 2020, 10:05:50 PM »

This polls education sample is off, it has 52% with a bachelor degree or higher, including 24% with a post-grad degree, those numbers are way to high, as of the 2018 ACS, 34% of adults in PA had a bachelor degree or higher, among RV's it would be somewhat higher, and more educated voters turn out at a somewhat higher rate, but the share in this poll should be in the mid 30's, the 2018 exit polls had 39% of voters in PA having a bachelor's degree or higher.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2020, 05:05:55 AM »

This polls education sample is off, it has 52% with a bachelor degree or higher, including 24% with a post-grad degree, those numbers are way to high, as of the 2018 ACS, 34% of adults in PA had a bachelor degree or higher, among RV's it would be somewhat higher, and more educated voters turn out at a somewhat higher rate, but the share in this poll should be in the mid 30's, the 2018 exit polls had 39% of voters in PA having a bachelor's degree or higher.

Um, no. There's no way that this poll is somehow skewed towards Biden looking at those #s. If anything, it's the other way around, since the numbers for Dems all around are much lower than elsewhere (Wolf's +7 approval tells us this)
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Annatar
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2020, 08:09:54 AM »

This polls education sample is off, it has 52% with a bachelor degree or higher, including 24% with a post-grad degree, those numbers are way to high, as of the 2018 ACS, 34% of adults in PA had a bachelor degree or higher, among RV's it would be somewhat higher, and more educated voters turn out at a somewhat higher rate, but the share in this poll should be in the mid 30's, the 2018 exit polls had 39% of voters in PA having a bachelor's degree or higher.

Um, no. There's no way that this poll is somehow skewed towards Biden looking at those #s. If anything, it's the other way around, since the numbers for Dems all around are much lower than elsewhere (Wolf's +7 approval tells us this)

I'm not saying anything about whether it is skewed or not, I was just pointing out the education level in the poll is to high.
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