What happened?
- Ancestrally GOP folks who have been Republican forever and happily voted for Romney and Bush are horrified by Trump. These are educated, professional types in Phoenix metro area, especially Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - Scottsdale has seen some of the most rapid blueing of all areas (not saying it's a Dem stronghold by any means)
- More Latinos are eligible to vote
- People are leaving California for lower cost of living in Arizona and they tend to lean blue
Not much working in GOP's favor trend-wise here - I guess some conservative older folks are still retiring to AZ in large numbers, but that's about it
Don't underestimate that last part. That is a huge Factor overall, and an absolute Lifeline to the Arizona GOP. Without that Trend over the last couple decades, the state would have a pvi close to Nevada's.
