How Arizona Became A Swing State

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

This article for some reason ignores 2000 and 2004, in 2000 AZ voted only 6.8% more republican than the country and in 2004 it voted 8% more republican, beginning in 2008 gives a massively exaggerated view of how republican the state was.

Bush was a great fit for the state and McCain even more so. But yeah, 2008 is certainly skewed since without McCain it wouldn't have been so Republican, though Romney probably would have held up okay and won the state with a reduced margin.