What happened?
- Ancestrally GOP folks who have been Republican forever and happily voted for Romney and Bush are horrified by Trump. These are educated, professional types in Phoenix metro area, especially Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - Scottsdale has seen some of the most rapid blueing of all areas (not saying it's a Dem stronghold by any means)
- More Latinos are eligible to vote
- People are leaving California for lower cost of living in Arizona and they tend to lean blue
Not much working in GOP's favor trend-wise here - I guess some conservative older folks are still retiring to AZ in large numbers, but that's about it
Don't underestimate that last part. That is a huge Factor overall, and an absolute Lifeline to the Arizona GOP. Without that Trend over the last couple decades, the state would have a pvi close to Nevada's.
I could see Florida looking a lot like Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada if it weren't for that, too. And its not going to last forever. Older people today have money. Middle Aged people (Xers) today and people my age (Millenials) today are going to be more reliant social security. A lot of them, like myself, have jobs that we can work in indefinitely. My prediction is that the influx of the elderly into frost free areas will probably start to slow down in the coming years.
