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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: Virginiá)
  How Arizona Became A Swing State
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Author Topic: How Arizona Became A Swing State  (Read 510 times)
pppolitics
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« on: June 29, 2020, 09:57:50 am »
« edited: June 29, 2020, 10:06:34 am by pppolitics »

Quote
For years, Arizona was to Democrats what Lucy’s football was to Charlie Brown. Despite candidates from Barack Obama to Hillary Clinton investing in the state, no Democratic presidential candidate has carried it since Bill Clinton in 1996. In fact, no Democrat won a statewide election in Arizona on any level after 2008 until 2018, despite numerous close calls.

But Arizona is changing.

In the 2008 and 2012 presidential races, the state was 16 points and 13 points more Republican-leaning than the country as a whole, respectively.1 But in 2016, President Trump won Arizona by only 4 points, making the state just 6 points more Republican-leaning than the nation.2 And in 2018, four Democratic candidates broke through and won statewide, including Sen. Kyrsten Sinema.

Now, in 2020, Joe Biden looks like he has a chance to actually win Arizona’s 11 electoral votes. As of June 29, Biden led Trump by 4.7 points in our Arizona polling average. And it looks like Democrats could flip another Senate seat here too, as Democrat Mark Kelly leads Republican Sen. Martha McSally by double digits in numerous polls.

Much of that is because of an extremely pro-Democratic national environment; according to our polling averages, Arizona is still a bit more Republican-leaning than the nation as a whole (4.6 points more Republican-leaning, to be precise). But if the final election results were to exactly match our current polling averages, it would still represent the third consecutive presidential election where Arizona has moved left.

[...]

https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/how-arizona-became-a-swing-state/
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brucejoel99
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« Reply #1 on: June 29, 2020, 12:12:34 pm »

TL;DR: mostly Democratic gains in Maricopa County due to many suburban voters' move to the Democrats. Also, gains in the Latino population. There, saved y'all a click.
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ottermax
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« Reply #2 on: June 29, 2020, 01:59:07 pm »

Do you think anything could be done to engage more Latino voters to show up and vote.
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Old School Republican
Computer89
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« Reply #3 on: June 29, 2020, 02:18:33 pm »

Whats shocking is not only did AZ trend R from 2000-2012 it swung R!!!
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MR. KAYNE WEST
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« Reply #4 on: June 29, 2020, 10:06:31 pm »

AZ did split their vote for Gov and Sen in 2018, it can do so again in 2020, but polls showing Kelly up by 15 was no right, he will win by Sinema numbers
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Annatar
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« Reply #5 on: June 30, 2020, 03:01:16 am »

This article for some reason ignores 2000 and 2004, in 2000 AZ voted only 6.8% more republican than the country and in 2004 it voted 8% more republican, beginning in 2008 gives a massively exaggerated view of how republican the state was.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #6 on: June 30, 2020, 10:34:18 am »

This article for some reason ignores 2000 and 2004, in 2000 AZ voted only 6.8% more republican than the country and in 2004 it voted 8% more republican, beginning in 2008 gives a massively exaggerated view of how republican the state was.

Bush was a great fit for the state and McCain even more so. But yeah, 2008 is certainly skewed since without McCain it wouldn't have been so Republican, though Romney probably would have held up okay and won the state with a reduced margin.
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xavier110
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« Reply #7 on: June 30, 2020, 11:18:14 am »
« Edited: June 30, 2020, 11:21:33 am by xavier110 »

What happened?

- Ancestrally GOP folks who have been Republican forever and happily voted for Romney and Bush are horrified by Trump. These are educated, professional types in Phoenix metro area, especially Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - Scottsdale has seen some of the most rapid blueing of all areas (not saying it's a Dem stronghold by any means)
- More Latinos are eligible to vote
- People are leaving California for lower cost of living in Arizona and they tend to lean blue

Not much working in GOP's favor trend-wise here - I guess some conservative older folks are still retiring to AZ in large numbers, but that's about it
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PQG and Libertarian Republican Pimp Slapped Coronavirus!
badger
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« Reply #8 on: June 30, 2020, 03:46:25 pm »

What happened?

- Ancestrally GOP folks who have been Republican forever and happily voted for Romney and Bush are horrified by Trump. These are educated, professional types in Phoenix metro area, especially Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - Scottsdale has seen some of the most rapid blueing of all areas (not saying it's a Dem stronghold by any means)
- More Latinos are eligible to vote
- People are leaving California for lower cost of living in Arizona and they tend to lean blue

Not much working in GOP's favor trend-wise here - I guess some conservative older folks are still retiring to AZ in large numbers, but that's about it

Don't underestimate that last part. That is a huge Factor overall, and an absolute Lifeline to the Arizona GOP. Without that Trend over the last couple decades, the state would have a pvi close to Nevada's.
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Everything Was Forever, Until It Was No More
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #9 on: July 01, 2020, 09:25:43 am »

What happened?

- Ancestrally GOP folks who have been Republican forever and happily voted for Romney and Bush are horrified by Trump. These are educated, professional types in Phoenix metro area, especially Scottsdale/Paradise Valley - Scottsdale has seen some of the most rapid blueing of all areas (not saying it's a Dem stronghold by any means)
- More Latinos are eligible to vote
- People are leaving California for lower cost of living in Arizona and they tend to lean blue

Not much working in GOP's favor trend-wise here - I guess some conservative older folks are still retiring to AZ in large numbers, but that's about it

Don't underestimate that last part. That is a huge Factor overall, and an absolute Lifeline to the Arizona GOP. Without that Trend over the last couple decades, the state would have a pvi close to Nevada's.

I could see Florida looking a lot like Colorado, Virginia, or Nevada if it weren't for that, too. And its not going to last forever. Older people today have money. Middle Aged people (Xers) today and people my age (Millenials)  today are going to be more reliant social security. A lot of them, like myself, have jobs that we can work in indefinitely. My prediction is that the influx of the elderly into frost free areas will probably start to slow down in the coming years.
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