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  Congressional Elections (Moderators: Brittain33, Gass3268, VirginiŠ)
  Which newcomers to next yearís congress wonít be back in 2022?
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Author Topic: Which newcomers to next yearís congress wonít be back in 2022?  (Read 531 times)
Tekken_Guy
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« on: June 28, 2020, 03:26:39 pm »

Which congresspeople who will be elected this year wonít be back in 2022?
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Storr
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« Reply #1 on: June 28, 2020, 03:42:07 pm »

Which congresspeople who will be elected this year wonít be back in 2022?
I forgot her name, but whoever the Republican nominee for MN-7 is. Minnesota is likely to lose a house seat after redistricting. I doubt Peterson survives, and assuming he loses, that district is easily cut in half and split among other seats.

Also, assuming Alabama loses a house seat after the 2020 Census, whoever wins AL-2, since that person will have no seniority and is easily split among surrounding seats (unlike AL-1 which can't be cleanly split due to it including the panhandle).
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Astatine
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« Reply #2 on: June 28, 2020, 03:52:45 pm »

Which congresspeople who will be elected this year wonít be back in 2022?
I forgot her name, but whoever the Republican nominee for MN-7 is. Minnesota is likely to lose a house seat after redistricting.
Michelle Fischbach.

Assuming Mike Garcia can be called a freshman (he was elected this year), he might be out in 2022 depending on redistricting.

If Rita Hart wins IA-2, there is a good chance she won't be reelected in 2022 considering IA's trends.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #3 on: June 28, 2020, 04:05:25 pm »

carolyn bourdeaux(GA 7)
GOJ(TX23)

Mary Miller(IL 15th)
FL
IN5th(If Ds win it which I don't think so)
MO 2nd Jill Schupp.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #4 on: June 28, 2020, 05:49:41 pm »

carolyn bourdeaux(GA 7)
GOJ(TX23)

Mary Miller(IL 15th)
FL
IN5th(If Ds win it which I don't think so)
MO 2nd Jill Schupp.

I donít see how they could mess with GOJ without a VRA suit.
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lfromnj
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« Reply #5 on: June 28, 2020, 07:06:51 pm »

carolyn bourdeaux(GA 7)
GOJ(TX23)

Mary Miller(IL 15th)
FL
IN5th(If Ds win it which I don't think so)
MO 2nd Jill Schupp.

I donít see how they could mess with GOJ without a VRA suit.
My guess is the delayed census results in late maps and then the federal courts say too late.
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MR. KAYNE WEST
olawakandi
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« Reply #6 on: June 28, 2020, 07:10:20 pm »

Garcia, wont be back, Rs are losing a House District in Cali. Whomever replaces Shimkus won be back in 2022 in IL, Pritzker is redistricting this seat out as well.
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morgieb
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« Reply #7 on: June 28, 2020, 07:35:11 pm »

Whoever wins AL-02 will likely lose out in the merry-go-round. Same probably goes for the winner of IL-15. Bourdeaux, presumably (I'm assuming it's impossible for Dems to flip one of the state legislatures there, whereas in Texas it's merely unlikely). I don't think the Dems flip IN-05 or MO-02, but yes if they were to flip. Probably Fishbach though I could see her primarying Hagdorn.
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TiltsAreUnderrated
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« Reply #8 on: June 28, 2020, 07:53:54 pm »

He's not a newcomer, but could Lacy Clay get his district cracked enough for a GOP win in 2022?
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Storr
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« Reply #9 on: June 28, 2020, 08:12:04 pm »

He's not a newcomer, but could Lacy Clay get his district cracked enough for a GOP win in 2022?
No.
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Mr.Phips
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« Reply #10 on: June 28, 2020, 08:45:34 pm »

carolyn bourdeaux(GA 7)
GOJ(TX23)

Mary Miller(IL 15th)
FL
IN5th(If Ds win it which I don't think so)
MO 2nd Jill Schupp.

I donít see how they could mess with GOJ without a VRA suit.
My guess is the delayed census results in late maps and then the federal courts say too late.

Too late to draw the maps so the court has to do it?
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lfromnj
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« Reply #11 on: June 29, 2020, 01:08:50 am »

carolyn bourdeaux(GA 7)
GOJ(TX23)

Mary Miller(IL 15th)
FL
IN5th(If Ds win it which I don't think so)
MO 2nd Jill Schupp.

I donít see how they could mess with GOJ without a VRA suit.
My guess is the delayed census results in late maps and then the federal courts say too late.

Too late to draw the maps so the court has to do it?
I mean the maps are a bit delayed due to the census being delayed and the lawsuit doesn't have enough time to reach SCOTUS as the 5th circuit would take it first and would obviously let it stand.
Not sure how SCOTUS rules.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #12 on: June 29, 2020, 11:55:16 pm »

He's not a newcomer, but could Lacy Clay get his district cracked enough for a GOP win in 2022?
No.

Clay's district is extremely Safe Democratic; it is based in heavily black St. Louis after all, which has not voted Republican since the 1920s. If anything, Emanuel Cleaver (though also not a newcomer) may be in jeopardy, as Republicans could try to crack Jackson County, and divide it between the Safe Republican districts adjacent to Kansas City. I don't think they will, however, as such a move could backfire on them.
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #13 on: June 30, 2020, 12:00:13 am »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)
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kongress
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« Reply #14 on: June 30, 2020, 04:48:42 am »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)

Wouldn't the Legislature opt to remove upstate GOP-leaning districts or GOP-leaning Long Island districts instead of a safe D NYC seat? Or is there enough population stagnation in NYC to remove a district there?
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NewYorkExpress
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« Reply #15 on: June 30, 2020, 04:16:56 pm »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)

Wouldn't the Legislature opt to remove upstate GOP-leaning districts or GOP-leaning Long Island districts instead of a safe D NYC seat? Or is there enough population stagnation in NYC to remove a district there?

It's certainly possible to draw an incumbent Congressperson out of their district without eliminating the district.
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Zaybay
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« Reply #16 on: June 30, 2020, 04:33:51 pm »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)

Unlikely. The state legislature now contains a sizable quantity of DSA/WF-affiliated state legislators, along with a ton of progressives. They need to sign off on any redistricting plan, and they're not going to allow their ally to be thrown under the bus.

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lfromnj
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« Reply #17 on: June 30, 2020, 05:54:59 pm »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)

Wouldn't the Legislature opt to remove upstate GOP-leaning districts or GOP-leaning Long Island districts instead of a safe D NYC seat? Or is there enough population stagnation in NYC to remove a district there?
If 2 seats are lost u have to lose an nyc seat .
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MAGugh
Kander2020
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« Reply #18 on: June 30, 2020, 09:27:28 pm »

Jamal Bowman, if the New York State Legislature decides to target him instead of AOC in redistricing (since he'll be a freshman he might be easier to take out that way than AOC is.)

I hate thinking this is possible, and then I remember the NYS Democratic Party...
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morgieb
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« Reply #19 on: June 30, 2020, 09:28:26 pm »

If she wins, Mitsch Bush (though redistricting might bail her out?)
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Tekken_Guy
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« Reply #20 on: June 30, 2020, 09:34:57 pm »

If she wins, Mitsch Bush (though redistricting might bail her out?)

How? The only way is if the Western counties like Mesa are cut from the district. And sheíll probably need to double-bunker with Neguse otherwise.
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