Who wins KY Sen Primary--vote dump edition

[DINGO Joe]

So, the Atlas scavenger hunt for returns has yielded a few clues and made my brain hurt watching NOVA try to parse them.  Who wins?  What the margin?  Does Booker win any counties besides Jefferson and Fayette? 

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath by 6.  Booker doesn't win any other counties.  Warren will be third best county

[n1240]

McGrath+2, I think any outcome outside of the range between McGrath+6 and Booker+2 is very unlikely at this point. Warren will be Booker's 3rd best county which I think he can win narrowly along with Christian County.

[For Trump, everything. For immigrants, the law]

McGrath, narrowly, but I think people are overestimating how well she’ll do in absentees and are ignoring the fact that several counties (not Fayette/Jefferson) are already reporting some or all of their results. I’d guess anywhere from McGrath +4 to Booker +3.

[DINGO Joe]

McGrath, narrowly, but I think people are overestimating how well she’ll do in absentees and are ignoring the fact that several counties (not Fayette/Jefferson) are already reporting some or all of their results. I’d guess anywhere from McGrath +4 to Booker +3.

I don't think anyone on Atlas is ignoring any results we've gotten thus far

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

[Donerail]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

[DINGO Joe]

Out of curiousity, i looked at the 2008 Ky Pres primary which is superficially similar.  Obama lost by a wide, wide margin, but did win Jefferson and Fayette by modest margin. After those two, his best counties were Oldham, Christian, and Woodford.  That makes Booker's numbers in Woodford look especially bad.  I do think it's possible that mansplaining Atlas is overlooking suburban woman for Amy.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

I wonder how TX Primary goes on July 14th, when Royce White is headed for a runoff against Hegar. But seriously the only person whom have a chance is Harrison. White and Booker are done

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

I understand. So McGrath is more the media candidate than the establishment candidate?

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

I understand. So McGrath is more the media candidate than the establishment candidate?

Bingo. She ran national ads on television for donations and became the most well-funded congressional candidate of all time.

[Oryxslayer]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

I understand. So McGrath is more the media candidate than the establishment candidate?

I think it's likely that McGrath at potentially Booker knows that they have less than 1% chance of unseating the turtle. What this race has become is a battle of opportunity, since both candidates are exploiting national media to the maximum extent. They would be hypothetically positioned for a B-tier Biden administration appointment, which is probably what McGrath was running for from the start, and why she courted big city dems more than KY politicos, opening her up to this attack. If Booker wins he will have simply stolen her initial trajectory. His national media circle is different from hers, but he's still building a support base among those who would be happy for an appointment.

[NOVA Green]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

I understand. So McGrath is more the media candidate than the establishment candidate?

NO----much more complicated

McGrath was THE Establishment Candidate backed by the Democratic Senate Committee and Chuck Schumer to try to make a decent race against McConnell...

McGrath bankrolled Millions of $$$ from many donors both large and small (Didn't donate to her, but enough pop up advertisments where I easily could have just to try to give a Black Eye to McConnel)...

Meanwhile, elements of the KY DEM Party are starting to see McGrath's vulnerabilities, and also "scoping around" for alternatives that might be perceived as more local...

COVID-19 & BLM start hitting around the right time, but perhaps a bit too late, bcs some of the earlier ballots might have gone out before Booker started to surge...

Complicated bag, but you also gotta remember that there are tons of votes for 2020 DEM SEN candidates other than Booker or McGrath....

Anyways--- two cents, back to looking at some numbers....

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Who exactly are the people voting Charles Booker in Eastern Kentucky?

Former AG Greg Stumbo lives in Floyd County and endorsed Booker, so there's one. Angie Hatton is the House Minority Whip and lives in Letcher County, so there's another. Laborers Local 576 represents workers across the commonwealth, so that's some of them too, and Kentuckians for the Commonwealth has always had most of its organization in the eastern part of the state, so there's some more.

If you're somewhat tuned into politics, and you're paying attention to who the newspapers endorse, who your state rep supports, who your union says to vote for, that kind of thing, you probably voted Booker, because he had near-monolithic support from Kentucky politicians and organizations. If you just vote for whoever you saw on TV, however, you probably voted McGrath — and most people vote for who they see on TV.

Wow, I didn't think that Booker had that much institutional support. He was described as a progressive upstart!
Maybe I have read the wrong takes.

He is a progressive but made friends in the legislature and went against someone who alienated the local establishment in her first congressional run and failed to seriously court it in her senatorial bid even when the field was wide open.

I understand. So McGrath is more the media candidate than the establishment candidate?

NO----much more complicated

McGrath was THE Establishment Candidate backed by the Democratic Senate Committee and Chuck Schumer to try to make a decent race against McConnell...

McGrath bankrolled Millions of $$$ from many donors both large and small (Didn't donate to her, but enough pop up advertisments where I easily could have just to try to give a Black Eye to McConnel)...

Meanwhile, elements of the KY DEM Party are starting to see McGrath's vulnerabilities, and also "scoping around" for alternatives that might be perceived as more local...

COVID-19 & BLM start hitting around the right time, but perhaps a bit too late, bcs some of the earlier ballots might have gone out before Booker started to surge...

Complicated bag, but you also gotta remember that there are tons of votes for 2020 DEM SEN candidates other than Booker or McGrath....

Anyways--- two cents, back to looking at some numbers....

It is a case of a disconnected national establishment + media hype vs local party establishment. The KY Democratic Party only rallied against her recently, but never gave any serious indication of being on board with her campaign to begin with.

[The Mamdani Virus]

Booker, at this point, I'm guessing those Fayette and Jefferson absentees won't be too good for McGrath

[NOVA Green]

Okay so---  Let's start with a conception of how many counties are likely completely done counting absentee ballots plus Election Day Ballots (Although there still might be a few trickles for ballots postmarked and not yet counted.

SN2019, as well as some of your posts attempted to create some sort of benchmarks to determine which counties are likely done counting a large majority of ballots:

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=323837.msg7425469#msg7425469

2016 DEM PRES PRIM was considered a good starting point, although it is pretty clear that 2020 KY DEM SEN PRIM results will likely significantly exceed the 2016 DEM PRES PRIM numbers.

1.) Counties Overwhelmingly Completed: (2018 DEM SEN PRIM Numbers Exceed 2016 DEM PRES NUMBERS)   (10/120).



2016 DEM PRES PRIM TOTAL:    26,755 Votes           (5.9% of '16 DEM PRES PRIM Vote Share)
2020 DEM SEN PRIM TOTAL (WaPo): 31,098 Votes    (+116% of 2016 Numbers).


Booker-      9,725       (31.3%)                +6,663 McGrath (+21.4%)
McGrath-    16,388       (52.7%)


2.) Counties "Mostly Completed" (2018 DEM SEN PRIM Numbers are a bit short of or narrowly exceed 2016 DEM PRES NUMBERS)   (4/120)....



2016 DEM PRES PRIM TOTAL:    11,146 Votes           (2.5% of '16 DEM PRES PRIM Vote Share)
2020 DEM SEN PRIM TOTAL (WaPo + NYT): 10,444 Votes    (94% of 2016 Numbers).

*** WaPo appears to have an error where they invert the numbers for Fleming County ***

Booker-      3,192       (30.6%)                +2,432 McGrath (+23.2%)
McGrath-    5,624      (53.8%)

3.) McGrath is currently running a + 9095 RAW Vote Lead among the 14/120 Counties where results are mostly complete which accounted for about 8.4% of the 2016 DEM PRES PRIM Vote Share----

4.) Counties with no 2020 DEM PRIM Results at all. (31/120 Counties).



2016 DEM PRES PRIM TOTAL:    42,024 Votes           (9.2% of '16 DEM PRES PRIM Vote Share)
2020 DEM SEN PRIM TOTAL (WaPo): Zero Votes

5.) Now obviously the remaining (75) Counties of Kentucky, representing 82% (!!!) of the 2016 DEM PRIM Vote Share count for something...

     i.) Jefferson County- 24.6% of KY PRES PRIM 2016 DEM Vote Share---- 
    ii.) Fayette County-     8.3% of KY PRES PRIM 2016 DEM Vote Share---- 
 
6.) Obviously we have other Counties where Booker might well end up winning, but the goal is to lower the margins sometimes rather than an outright win....

Still not totally unfeasible to see Booker wins in places elsewhere in KY as well... but how to overcome the existing McGrath RAW Vote Margins, the likely McGrath RAW Vote Margins in major parts of the State?

Will def need more than simply ED numbers to be convinced, but at the same time wouldn't be doing any major odds betting either way with so little data....