MA-Sen 1990s: Romney beats Kennedy and Weld beats Kerry

[voice_of_resistance]

Say hypothetically if Romney beat Kennedy in 94 and Weld beat Kerry in 96, how would they do?

My guess is:

For the Class I seat,
1994, Mitt Romney (R) d. Ted Kennedy (D-inc), 51-49
2000, Mitt Romney (R) d. Marty Meehan (D), 55-44

Two things could happen in 06, Romney gets crushed or he pulls an Olympia Snowe
2006, Mike Capuano (D) d. Mitt Romney (R-inc), 55-45
OR
2006, Mitt Romney (R-inc) d. Mike Capuano (D), 59-40

If he survives 2006, he almost certainly loses in 2012
2012, Victoria Reggie Kennedy (D) d. Mitt Romney, R-inc, 52-47

For the Class II seat,
1996, Bill Weld (R) d. John Kerry (D-inc), 50-48
2002, Bill Weld (R-inc) d. John Silber (D), 62-37

Two things could happen in 2008, Weld goes down or he pulls a Susan Collins
2008, Ed Markey (D) d. Bill Weld (R-inc), 57-43
OR
2008, Bill Weld (R-inc) d. Bill Delahunt (D), 60-40

2014 was a good year, even with a good candidate on the D side Weld survives
2014, Bill Weld (R-inc) d. Deval Patrick (D), 51-48

2020, Weld almost certainly loses
2020, Joseph P. Kennedy III (D) d. Bill Weld (R-inc), 56-44

Ultimately, I think that Romney and Weld would have been two very good senators for MA had they won, and they could legitimately have won up until around 2010 or so. What are your thoughts?

[Left Wing]

Wonder how a Romney 2000 presidential campaign would have gone.

[President Biden Democrat]

If this happened. Romney and Weld both could have won in 2000 & 2002. But I assume that they both would have lost in 2006 & 2008 (Democratic Wave Years). Romney would be known and Weld would have really high name recognition.

I assume that Romney in this TL would still become the GOP Presidential Nominee in 2012, but would likely never run for Senate in Utah in 2018. It is possible though that Romney would have run for President again in 2016, assuming that he lost in 2012.

[Vidal]

I think Romney pursues the presidency in 2000 instead of the Senate OR, as he did OTL, reads the writing on the wall in 2006 and retires.

It seems likely to me that Romney would be seen as a dragon slayer among Republicans, and I think he'd be the frontrunner for the 2000 or 2008 primaries (or, who knows, maybe Gore wins ITTL in 2000 and Romney runs for president and wins in 2008).

[voice_of_resistance]

yea I think Romney would probably retire in 2006 rather than risk losing. He'd far and away be a top pick for 2008 or 2012 though. Weld would probably do the same in 2008, and perhaps maybe he would become a Secretary of State or something like that. The latest any of them would serve, though, is 2012 for Romney and 2020 for Weld. The Class I cycle has had some pretty Dem-friendly years, whereas the Class II had 2014.

[dw93]

50/50 chance Romney loses in 2000 if he runs for re election to the Senate. A lot of Republicans that got swept into the Senate in 1994 lost in 2000 and I wouldn't be surprised if Romney lost in a blue state in a year that was much more friendly to the Democrats than 1994 was. If he wins, he either gets landslided out of the Senate in 2006 or he does as he did with the Governor's race in 2006 OTL and retires.

Weld wins in 2002 and loses in 2008. Romney likely still runs for President. He could run in 2000, though I doubt he'd beat Bush or even McCain. I could only see him running and getting nominated in 2008 (or 2004 if Gore wins) if he wins  re election to the Senate in 2000 and again, that's a toss up. I don't see Weld Running for the Republican nomination and if he did, he'd go nowhere.