Hodas & Associates - MI: Biden +18, PA: Biden + 12, WI: Biden +17
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  Hodas & Associates - MI: Biden +18, PA: Biden + 12, WI: Biden +17		 « previous next »
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Author Topic: Hodas & Associates - MI: Biden +18, PA: Biden + 12, WI: Biden +17  (Read 1639 times)
Granite City
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« on: June 25, 2020, 09:13:12 AM »
« edited: June 25, 2020, 09:18:08 AM by Granite City »
Michigan

shorturl.at/ctDK9

June 17-20, 600 LV

Biden: 56%
Trump: 38%

Pennsylvania

shorturl.at/csBQY

June 8-11, 600 LV

Biden: 54%
Trump: 42%

Wisconsin

shorturl.at/aemvG

Biden: 55%
Trump: 39%
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GeorgiaModerate
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« Reply #1 on: June 25, 2020, 09:14:08 AM »
March numbers from the same pollster:
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2020, 09:15:23 AM »
Good
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morgieb
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« Reply #3 on: June 25, 2020, 09:19:01 AM »
kekekekekekekek

Can we move the election to next Tuesday?
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BlueGrassKentuckian
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« Reply #4 on: June 25, 2020, 09:20:56 AM »
Quote from: morgieb on June 25, 2020, 09:19:01 AM
kekekekekekekek

Can we move the election to next Tuesday?

I always have thought we should be able to call early elections if a president has been shown to be completely incompetent.
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Bidenworth2020
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« Reply #5 on: June 25, 2020, 09:22:11 AM »
Bro
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หมูเด้ง
Angry_Weasel
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« Reply #6 on: June 25, 2020, 09:22:35 AM »
I call bullsh**t.
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BlueGrassKentuckian
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« Reply #7 on: June 25, 2020, 09:24:44 AM »
The margins seem high but... who knows.
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Wiz in Wis
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« Reply #8 on: June 25, 2020, 09:25:00 AM »

Samples are way too over educated.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: June 25, 2020, 09:27:07 AM »
Should note this is a Republican pollster.
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libertpaulian
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« Reply #10 on: June 25, 2020, 09:29:22 AM »
WHY DOES NO ONE EVER POLL OHIO
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Buzz
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« Reply #11 on: June 25, 2020, 09:29:54 AM »
Junk.  Move along
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #12 on: June 25, 2020, 09:33:37 AM »
Their old PA and Wisconsin samples were way too R-leaning, so naturally I wouldn't be surprised if they made these way too D-leaning, though PA lines up closer to Fox/NYT.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #13 on: June 25, 2020, 09:41:46 AM »
Honestly, the PA one is very close to what we've seen in the NYT poll, so that one might be pretty on par. The samples seem a little too harsh on Trump in WI/MI, but I mean, not insanely outlier-ish, which makes me think these are a bit off, but he probably is down at least double digits in MI/WI right now.

Pennsylvania
Trump approval: 44/55 (-11)
Trump fav: 42/56 (-14)

Michigan
Trump approval: 40/57 (-17)
Trump fav: 36/59 (-23)

Wisconsin
Trump approval: 41/57 (-16)
Trump fav: 35/60 (-25)
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Blackacre
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« Reply #14 on: June 25, 2020, 09:45:23 AM »

Oh, they didn't weigh by education? Toss it
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Brittain33
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« Reply #15 on: June 25, 2020, 10:09:20 AM »
Hahahahahahaha

I don’t buy this for a moment, but it’s fun to see.
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #16 on: June 25, 2020, 10:14:10 AM »
I have noticed none of the typical Rs like Indy Rep or MT Treasurer have responded since the polls have gotten this lopsided, but it's fun to see this.
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Alben Barkley
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« Reply #17 on: June 25, 2020, 10:21:59 AM »
I’m beginning to think maybe Wisconsin is not titanium R after all...
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Mr.Bakari-Sellers
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« Reply #18 on: June 25, 2020, 10:27:16 AM »
The Rs dont want to believe the polls, not just that they dont believe that Biden wont win, they don't want Ds to get more than 50 seats, another Rs can still block D Bilks in the Senate, repeat what we went thru in 2007 to 2015 to block immigration reform so they can take back Senate in 2022, and blame the economy on Prez Biden just like Boehner did in 2009
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Darthpi - Crush the Oligarchy
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« Reply #19 on: June 25, 2020, 10:47:50 AM »
These definitely seem off, but oh how I would love to see it.
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Holmes
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« Reply #20 on: June 25, 2020, 10:49:33 AM »
Quote from: CHARLES BOOKER on June 25, 2020, 10:14:10 AM
I have noticed none of the typical Rs like Indy Rep or MT Treasurer have responded since the polls have gotten this lopsided, but it's fun to see this.

Those are the same person and yes he’s been discussing the latest poll numbers lol
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #21 on: June 25, 2020, 10:52:52 AM »
Quote from: darthpi on June 25, 2020, 10:47:50 AM
These definitely seem off, but oh how I would love to see it.

PA's not really off, but the other two are outside of what we've seen.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #22 on: June 25, 2020, 11:00:02 AM »
It would be nice to see results like this, but it won't happen.

Trump will probably close the gap after Labor Day and with likely voters, maybe to around 5-8% nationally, which means many swing states will have close polls again as well.

Such big leads in October would also be counterproductive for Biden, because it would almost definitely lead to a de-mobilisation of the Democratic-leaning electorate.

If Biden-voters stay home because the media says his win is a sure thing, Trump could even surprise and close strongly.

It's only over when the Fat Lady sings.
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wbrocks67
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« Reply #23 on: June 25, 2020, 11:26:31 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on June 25, 2020, 11:00:02 AM
It would be nice to see results like this, but it won't happen.

Trump will probably close the gap after Labor Day and with likely voters, maybe to around 5-8% nationally, which means many swing states will have close polls again as well.

Such big leads in October would also be counterproductive for Biden, because it would almost definitely lead to a de-mobilisation of the Democratic-leaning electorate.

If Biden-voters stay home because the media says his win is a sure thing, Trump could even surprise and close strongly.

It's only over when the Fat Lady sings.

A lot of people keep saying this narrative about how the polls will tighten in the fall and the swing states will be a lot closer - but what evidence is there of that? We've gone further towards the election and Trump's standing has only worsened. Not saying it will happen, but honestly it's a 50/50 shot right now as to whether Trump's standing gets bettor or even worse.

Also, I don't think the "complacency" thing works in 2020. Many Democrats would crawl over broken glass to vote against Trump, even if Biden was up 30%. I don't think many people are going to stay home for this election, even if they think Biden will win.
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pbrower2a
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« Reply #24 on: June 25, 2020, 01:00:01 PM »
7% lead or 17% lead... it is the same 46 electoral votes.
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