Who's more likely to win a supermajority in the senate in 2020?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Obviously, the chance of this happenning for either side is extremely low. Republican's easiest path is holding all their current seats, and gaining MI, AL, MN, NH, NM, VA, and one other seat from some big time D screw up. Ds path would be something like +CO, AZ, ME, NC, MT, IA, GA, GA-S, AK, KS, TX, and 3/4 of KY, SC, MS, or holding AL. Both seem highly improbable, but still possible in  huge, huge blowout election (R+14 or D+21 ish) Republican have fewer seats to gain, but many of the Democrat's seats seem like more realistic gains.

[Left Wing]

I think Democrats. Dems have a better shot at some of their "reach" seats than Republicans. Mitch McConnell and Lindsey graham are more likely to lose than Mark Warner and Ben Ray Lujan.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds, obviously, Bollier, Ossoff and Bullock have a chance. As well as Gross and Harrison

[Badger]

Obviously not going to happen either way, but at least theoretically, Democrats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds are likely to get a net gain of 10 seats. McGrath has given her $$$ to other Ds and MS, AL are gone. TX, SC, GA A or B and AL after IA, MT and KS will round out the 53 seats or more. As a result,  bypass Sinema and Manchin to get around filibuster which will apply only to DC statehood and immigration reform

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Obviously not going to happen either way, but at least theoretically, Democrats.

Ds only need 53 seats to pass immigration reform and DC statehood and IA, MT and GA A will provide that opportunity

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

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[TiltsAreUnderrated]

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The chances aren't quite that low (both outcomes are possible, albeit unrealistic). Democrats have up to 58 seats in reach in my judgement, so would need to flip at least two of three seats that are safe R (so >95% chance of staying R) but have a >1% chance of flipping. I'd say those are AL, KY and MS. Alternatively, things could get better for them if the investigation into Richard Burr results in an resignation on his part and another winnable Senate race in NC.

Republicans have up to 56 seats in range (their current 53 - CO + AL, MI, MN and NH). They'd need four safe D but non-titanium targets or three plus an open seat vacated by the Democratic VP-nominee.

Targets in this 1-5% range include CO, DE, NJ, NM, RI and VA (OR-SEN is titanium D thanks to the Republican nominee). The non-titanium Republican ceiling is higher (62 vs 61 without a Burr or VP-nominee resignation), but it's harder for them to reach 60 seats.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Ds path is AK, AZ, CO, GA A and B, IA, KS, ME, MT, NC, SC and TX
AL, KY, LA, MS, OK, SD, TN, WVA, and WY are safe R

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Ds path is AK, AZ, CO, GA A and B, IA, KS, ME, MT, NC, SC and TX
AL, KY, LA, MS, OK, SD, TN, WVA, and WY are safe R

Indeed, so it's not going to be enough. But they at least have a 1% chance (though these states are safe R) in AK, KY and MS.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK isn't safe R, I found out that AK uses its oil revenue to give UBI payments to residents of 1K per month and Murkiwski created it recently. UBI benefits are getting very popular in HI, AK, CA, OR, WA, AZ, CO, NV due to surpluses in the states due to state Bonds. That's why we have General Assistance 200 to 600 a month, whereas Midwest doesnt, they only have unemployment 🤩🤩🤩

[skbl17]

Democrats, but it won't happen. Assuming Doug Jones loses, the Dems would need to win 14 seats off the Republicans.

Giving them all of the competitive seats (AZ, both GA seats, TX, ME, NC, MT, CO, IA) gets them 9. A defeat for Kobach in KS - assuming he's the nominee - gets them 10.

You'd need to really stretch things from there. SC and AK would get them to 12 gains. From there, they'd need to win two of Nebraska, Mississippi, Kentucky, South Dakota, West Virginia, Louisiana, Oklahoma, Idaho, and Tennessee, or just one of them and pray that Doug Jones beats his really long odds and wins reelection.

Or, they could win everything I listed up to AK (that's 58 seats,) hope that Burr is forced out prior to September, then win the subsequent special election, then offer committee chairmanships to Murkowski to get her to go Independent and join Sanders and King in caucusing with them. That would be 60 seats, but Schumer would have to work really hard to keep the mega-Dem caucus in line to prevent filibusters.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

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The chances aren't quite that low (both outcomes are possible, albeit unrealistic). Democrats have up to 58 seats in reach in my judgement, so would need to flip at least two of three seats that are safe R (so >95% chance of staying R) but have a >1% chance of flipping. I'd say those are AL, KY and MS. Alternatively, things could get better for them if the investigation into Richard Burr results in an resignation on his part and another winnable Senate race in NC.

Republicans have up to 56 seats in range (their current 53 - CO + AL, MI, MN and NH). They'd need four safe D but non-titanium targets or three plus an open seat vacated by the Democratic VP-nominee.

Targets in this 1-5% range include CO, DE, NJ, NM, RI and VA (OR-SEN is titanium D thanks to the Republican nominee). The non-titanium Republican ceiling is higher (62 vs 61 without a Burr or VP-nominee resignation), but it's harder for them to reach 60 seats.

Dem best case is -AL +CO AZ ME NC MT GA GA IA KS TX and maybe AK. That’s 57 in a perfect year

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

0=0

The chances aren't quite that low (both outcomes are possible, albeit unrealistic). Democrats have up to 58 seats in reach in my judgement, so would need to flip at least two of three seats that are safe R (so >95% chance of staying R) but have a >1% chance of flipping. I'd say those are AL, KY and MS. Alternatively, things could get better for them if the investigation into Richard Burr results in an resignation on his part and another winnable Senate race in NC.

Republicans have up to 56 seats in range (their current 53 - CO + AL, MI, MN and NH). They'd need four safe D but non-titanium targets or three plus an open seat vacated by the Democratic VP-nominee.

Targets in this 1-5% range include CO, DE, NJ, NM, RI and VA (OR-SEN is titanium D thanks to the Republican nominee). The non-titanium Republican ceiling is higher (62 vs 61 without a Burr or VP-nominee resignation), but it's harder for them to reach 60 seats.

Dem best case is -AL +CO AZ ME NC MT GA GA IA KS TX and maybe AK. That’s 57 in a perfect year

Add SC. I agree that's their realistic best case, but safe R/D does not mean 100% R/D, just 95% in my book.

[MT Treasurer]

Democrats' absolute best-case scenario:


+CO
+AZ
(hold MI)
---
+MT
+NC
+GA-R
+ME
+GA-S
---
+IA
(hold AL)
+KS
+TX
+AK
+SC

That only gets them to 59, so they still need to flip one other seat (MS?) or convice Murkowski to switch parties.

[TrendsareUsuallyReal]

Democrats' absolute best-case scenario:


+CO
+AZ
(hold MI)
---
+MT
+NC
+GA-R
+ME
+GA-S
---
+IA
(hold AL)
+KS
+TX
+AK
+SC

That only gets them to 59, so they still need to flip one other seat (MS?) or convice Murkowski to switch parties.

I assume KS moves to Tier 2 for you if Kobach is nominated?

[MT Treasurer]

I assume KS moves to Tier 2 for you if Kobach is nominated?

Yes, definitely. I’m assuming a Marshall nomination here.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Dems are targeting

Likely D 12
AZ, CO, IL, MI, MA, MN, NH, NJ, NM, OR, RI, VA
Slight LD 3 or 51 seats
IA, ME, NC
TOSSUP 5. 52+ seats for Ds
AK, GA, KS, MT, SC
Safe R 11 or 43 seats
AL, ID, KY, MS, NEB, OK, SD, TN, TX, WVA and WY

Bollier was tied in the last poll against Marshall and Kobach

[morgieb]

Vaguely more likely for the Democrats here, but obviously neither will happen.

Dems path:

Swap Alabama for Colorado
48 - Arizona
49 - Maine
50 - North Carolina
51 - Montana
52/3 - Georgia (both)
54 - Iowa
55 - Texas
56 - Kansas
57 - Alaska
58 - South Carolina
59 - hold Alabama
60 - Mississippi? Convince Murkowski or Romney to caucus with them?

Reps path:

54 - Alabama (though obviously they flip this well before they hold plenty of their own seats)
55 - Michigan (again this flips before Colorado is held)
56 - Minnesota
57 - New Hampshire
58 - New Mexico
59 - Virginia?
60 - Delaware? New Jersey? Convince Manchin to flip?

I'd say the Dems only need to flip 2 Safe R seats, for the Reps it's 3.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, NC and SC 57D to 43 Rs

AL, kY, MS and TX are safe R

[😥]

Democrats, it is very unlikely, but this is their path for supermajority:

46 Democratic seats (hold all except AL)
47. Arizona
48. Colorado
49. North Carolina
50. Montana
51. Maine
52. Georgia
53. Iowa
54. Georgia-special
55. Kansas
56. Texas
57. Alaska
58. Alabama
59. South Carolina
60. Kentucky/Mississippi

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Jamie Harrison has a better chance to win than Hegar whom is down by 10 pts.

IA is the 51st seat, not GA which will be going to runoffs,

AZ 47
CO 48
ME 49
NC 50
IA 51
MT 52
KS 53
SC 54
AK 55
Runoffs
GA A, B 56 and 57
TX 58
KY 59
MS/AL 60

[Roll Roons]

It's a very tall order for both parties, but given how things are shaping up, it seems marginally more likely for Democrats.

Democrats:
Hold everything except Alabama.
47. Colorado
48. Arizona
49. North Carolina
50. Maine
51. Montana
52. Georgia special
53. Iowa
54. Georgia regular
55. Kansas
56. Texas
57. Alaska
58. Hold Alabama
59. South Carolina
60. Mississippi, with Kentucky the 61st.

Republicans:
Hold everything except Colorado and Arizona.
52. Alabama
53. Hold Arizona
54. Michigan
55. Hold Colorado
56. Minnesota
57. New Hampshire
58. New Mexico
59. Virginia
60. Delaware, Illinois or New Jersey

[Battista Minola 1616]

PEOPLE
Am I the only one who considers "supermajority" as "being able to override a veto" and so 67 seats instead of 60?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

A Supermajority is now, 53 votes, since Sinema and Manchin are surely gonna vote to keep to filibuster and if Ds only net 50 votes, not 51, McConnell,  due to 2000 power sharing agreement will have say so over whom is nominated and what Bill's come to floor. Since the judicial filibuster was outlawed, you can apply 51 votes to any piece of legislation

REALISTICALLY Ds will get is 57 to 43

AK, AZ, CO, GA, IA, KS, ME, MT, NC and SC

AL, KY, MS and TX are safe R

Since Bullock is our strongest recruit and Kobach might still win nomination,  MT, KS arent Safe R

That's why Ds are passing DC statehood,  they have enough targetted seats to have 53 votes at least in Senate