What happens if the fate of senate control comes down to a Georgia runoff?

[ProgressiveModerate]

Would the runoff get lots of media attention? Would turnout be high or low? Would it help one party win the race? I personally think this is the most probable outcome; Ds gain AZ, CO, and NC, Rs gain AL, and the Georgia senate race goes to runoff, and Republicans end up winning it because of higher turnout to prevent a D trifecta (I'm guessing Biden is favored to win the EC and Ds are favored in the house)

[brucejoel99]

Runoffs for the Georgia Senate races would be quite fun, & if Senate control comes down to them, then all bets are off: both runoffs start out as Pure Tossups. Perdue's runoff might save him, but it'd be a very narrow path to victory for both him & (in all likelihood) Collins. For all the Atlas memes about him, Perdue doesn't have some magic ability to hold sway over suburban/exurban voters, so it might actually be better for Ossoff & Warnock if they both end up in a runoff, as they'll complement one another with regards to turnout: Ossoff for the suburbs, & Warnock for Black turnout.

[YE]

We lose them because of low black turnout.

[NewYorkExpress]

Republicans win, but that's not because Black turnout is lower. It's because White turnout is higher.

I think it's more likely the race in Lousiana goes to a runoff than either Georgia race, if I want to be truthful (and that's more because of the number of candidates, and has nothing to do with Bill Cassidy's chances of losing the race.)

[Storr]

Runoff = Republican

[Epaminondas]

it might actually be better for Ossoff & Warnock if they both end up in a runoff

Nonsense. See 2008 and the mammoth dropoff between jungle and runoff. 2 Runoffs = 2 defeats due to turnout differentials among Blacks.

The best case scenario is Ossoff winning with 50%+1 vote in November. Then Senator-elect Ossoff could also campaign for Warnock in January.

[brucejoel99]

it might actually be better for Ossoff & Warnock if they both end up in a runoff

Nonsense. See 2008 and the mammoth dropoff between jungle and runoff. 2 Runoffs = 2 defeats due to turnout differentials among Blacks.

The best case scenario is Ossoff winning with 50%+1 vote in November. Then Senator-elect Ossoff could also campaign for Warnock in January.

So how is what happened 12 years ago a sensible predictor for a hypothetical January 2021 runoff? Idk if you've noticed, but GA has kinda changed a whole hell of a lot since 2008. And hell, it's not like I'm even saying that Ossoff/Warnock would be the favorites or anything (hence why I referred to both runoffs as "Pure Tossups"), but it's just wrong on so many levels to presume that both runoffs would be easy victories for Perdue & Collins.

[Epaminondas]

So how is what happened 12 years ago a sensible predictor for a hypothetical January 2021 runoff? Idk if you've noticed, but GA has kinda changed a whole hell of a lot since 2008.

Sure, but there's a reason we have to go back 12 years to find the last statewide runoff for a Democratic candidate.

Also, Blacks don't vote in runoffs, though I'm not sure why. Unfortunate but constant.

Edit: I'm wrong, there was this runoff in 2018, which reinforces my point. A long-term congressman who survived in a Red district until a narrow defeat in 2014, vs a little-known backbencher. Yet still the Dem lost more of his vote share than the Republican in the runoff.

[Pericles]

There was still the dropoff for the runoff in the 2018 SoS race, but nowhere as severe. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2018_Georgia_Secretary_of_State_election One or two Senate races, especially if Senate control is at stake, would be more high-profile so the dropoff could be even less than this. Still, let's say there's half the change in the margin that there was in the 2018 race. That means Republicans get a 1.7% boost. So Republicans probably will get some boost from the runoff, and if it was close enough not to be a 50%+1 Democratic victory (though the special could have the Democratic field getting a majority), then it was most likely a pure tossup in the general. That becomes Tilt R, perhaps Lean R for the runoffs.

Another factor to consider is how the outcome of the presidential race could affect voters considerations. If Biden wins, then the anger at Trump among suburbanites may be diminished and they may instead revert a bit back to their previous partisanship and decide to impose a check on him. If Trump wins reluctant Trump voters could try and impose a check on him but Georgia probably won't be super close in that scenario so the Republicans have the edge anyway.

[brucejoel99]

So how is what happened 12 years ago a sensible predictor for a hypothetical January 2021 runoff? Idk if you've noticed, but GA has kinda changed a whole hell of a lot since 2008.

Sure, but there's a reason we have to go back 12 years to find the last statewide runoff for a Democratic candidate.

Also, Blacks don't vote in runoffs, though I'm not sure why. Unfortunate but constant.

Sorry, but 2020 just isn't 2008. This year's election is already expected to see over 1 million more voters cast ballots in GA than did so just in 2016 (let alone 2008). In 2018, John Barrow & Lindy Miller got 48% of the vote in runoffs for down-ballot, state-level offices that were nowhere near as (if at all) hyped up as 2 U.S. Senate runoffs that literally stand to determine control of the Senate would be.

The pastor of the Rev. Martin Luther King's church in Atlanta & one of the first Democrats (with the full organizational support of a civil rights icon in his own right: John Lewis) to have not only successfully tapped into the suburban backlash against Trump's GOP but to have done so to such an unprecedented extent that they laid the organizational groundwork for Democrats to take Newt Gingrich's old seat - with both having the organizational support of Stacey Abrams & her machine behind them in a state which has probably seen the largest amount of uproar against voter-suppression tactics - are gonna see high turnout to support them in the event that they face early 2021 runoffs. End of story.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

This assumes that Bullock, Bollier and Greenfield all fail. I dont know why Progressive Moderate is so dim on Bullock and Bolliers chances, the past polls taken, even in the MT gov race were all within the margin of error and Cook has moved MT to tossup. Progressive moderate told me he donated to Bullock's campaign,  if so, he should show some more support. I donated to his campaign as well.

We still dont know if Kobach doesn't win the primary in KS and Ernst has lost the last 3 polls in IA

[Stockdale for Veep]

Mitch wouldn't be able to do any court packing in Nov-Dec.

[Sir Mohamed]

Would probably turn into the most expensive senate campaign history. Or at least one of the most expensive. My gut feeling says th GOP would win due to lower Dem turnout in December as opposed to Nov 3.

[インターネット掲示板ユーザー Punxsutawney Phil]

While I agree Rs definitely have an edge here regardless of who wins the presidential race, the newer Dem coalition is composed of higher-propensity demographics than in past years, so the dropoff, if it does occur, is unlikely to be anywhere near as bad for Dems. The 2018 SoS runoff is proof of this.

[Epaminondas]

In 2018, John Barrow & Lindy Miller got 48% of the vote in runoffs for down-ballot, state-level offices that were nowhere near as (if at all) hyped up as 2 U.S. Senate runoffs that literally stand to determine control of the Senate would be.

If there's one constant in the Democratic party since 1992, it's that these things never seem to matter much to voters. "I've voted for the prez, my job here is done" and so forth. At any rate that's my impression from the numbers and from talking with many voters oblivious to any non-presidential election.

But good catch that Linda Miller also made it to a runoff for Public Service Commissioner in 2018. She did fairly well too, must have been a star recruit.

[Landslide Lyndon]

I think you are ignoring a very important factor: Trump. How will he behave after a probable defeat?
Will he accept it and focus on a smooth trasition (yeah, right)?
Or will he go on a rampage refusing to concede, raging about voter fraud, and pardoning people like Stone and Manafort?
If the former happens, then Democrats might become complacent and don't turn out for the run off.
But if Trump makes a clown of himself and engages in scorched earth tactics on the way out then Democrats probably remain engaged and enthusiastic enough to provide a final kick in the nuts to their nemesis.

  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Would probably turn into the most expensive senate campaign history. Or at least one of the most expensive. My gut feeling says th GOP would win due to lower Dem turnout in December as opposed to Nov 3.

The runoff would be Jan. 5.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

It wont many Ds have faith that Bullock, Bollier and Greenfield will give Ds more than 50 seats

[MT Treasurer]

I’m actually expecting both seats to go to a runoff, but whether they’ll decide Senate control or not is of course a different question (they wouldn’t if the election were held today, but I could see a scenario where Dems pick up CO/AZ/MT and the GA seats decide it — however, the presidential race would need to tighten for that).

This would be an absolute barnburner and probably decided by <2 points or so.

[RFKFan68]

Pure tossup and not arguing with folks who don't live here and basing their opinion off of 2008 with a Dixiecrat candidate who refused to embrace Obama or the Black base and when Latinos/Asians are more of the electorate and suburban whites have fled the GOP.