2004 Election Timeline: President Gephardt?

[Chips]

January 2004: Bush approval ratings

Approve: 52%
Disapprove: 47%

January 20, 2004: Gephardt wins a very close race in the IA caucuses

Gephardt: 28%
Dean: 26%
Edwards: 20%
Kerry: 19%
Everyone else: 7%

[Person Man]

There really wasn't an appetite for moderation because of Nader siphoning votes away from the base. Same with 2008, really. The narrative switched from people being fatigued from Bush's hard right views on social policy and hawkish foreign policy to one where his moderate economic and immigration/racial views caused the recession.  As in both 2012 and 2004, the opposition tried to shore up the base and when they lost the very close election by slightly more than expected, the establishment saw that the base wasn't delivering. Republicans were talking about a post-election road map and Democrats in the months following the election were seriously talking about denouncing Roe v. Wade as going "too far" and sacrificing the "sacred cows" of social security and medicare.  The ironic thing is that base would do a hostile takeover of the party during the following election cycle and win by more than expected.   

[Chips]

January 27th: Dean wins NH primary

Dean: 38%
Gephardt: 25%
Kerry: 24%
Edwards: 21%
Everyone else: 2%

[Chips]

January 28th: Both Kerry and Edwards dropped out of the race. Everyone else opted to drop out too.

Dean had a narrow lead over Gephardt, But would said lead last?

Mini Tuesday

Winners:

Arizona: Gephardt
Delaware: Dean
Missouri: Gephardt
New Mexico: Dean
North Dakota: Gephardt
Oklahoma: Gephardt
South Carolina: Dean

Gephardt has now re-taken a slight lead over Dean.

[Chips]

February 7th: Gephardt wins both Michigan and Washington contests, Dean falls behind

February 8th: Dean wins the Maine contest

February 10th: Gephardt wins Tennessee, Dean wins Virginia

February 14th: Dean wins D.C, Gephardt wins Nevada

February 17th: Dean wins a close race in Wisconsin

February 24th: Dean wins Hawaii, Gephardt wins Idaho and Utah

Gephardt is leading by about 150 delegates but Dean has one last chance.

[Chips]

Super Tuesday: Gephardt and Dean split wins

Winners

California: Dean
Connecticut: Dean
Arizona: Gephardt
Maryland: Gephardt
Massachusetts: Dean
Minnesota: Gephardt
New York: Gephardt
Ohio: Dean
Rhode Island: Dean
Vermont: Dean

Dean cut into Gephardt's lead and after Super Tuesday Gephardt leads by 49 delegates.

[Chips]

March 9th: Gephardt sweeps the contests held that day

Gephardt now has a 317 delegate lead.

March 10th: Dean drops out. Gephardt is the presumptive nominee

Dean: Thanks to all who supported my campaign. Now we must work with Gephardt to defeat President Bush this November.

Gephardt: With all of your help, We'll take down Bush this November and restore a true vision to the White House!

[Chips]

March-July: Gephardt sweeps all contests, Wins the nomination. Picks Wesley Clark as his running mate

Polling:

"We can see Gephardt is polling at 276 electoral votes which would suffice to win the presidency. Bush is polling at 178 electoral votes. You see states that Bush thought were safe in his column like Arkansas, West Virginia and even Virginia competitive. North Carolina is on the cusp of being in contention. This is all just because of a convention bump however.

[Left Wing]

My guess is Gephardt flips Missouri and Iowa but loses New Hampshire. He won't lose NH if he picks  running mate from New England like Kerry.

[Chips]

Late August: The GOP convention happens. Bush now has the national lead.

"We see that Bush is polling ahead in states worth 243 electoral votes which is 27 less than the 270 needed to win. Gephardt is polling ahead in states worth 189. We're expecting a close election at this point.

[Chips]

Mid-September polling:

Gephardt has retaken the lead. He has 220 electoral votes while Bush has 210.

[Chips]

Mid October Polling: Gephardt retains lead, VA surprisingly in play.

Gephardt has 210 electoral votes while Bush has 197. Something remarkable is that with a new poll out showing Gephardt up by 1 point in VA along with a couple of other polls that show Bush leading in VA but within the margin of error means that VA is a toss-up now. If Gephardt wins it that's probably the end of the road for Bush but Bush still holds a lead of about 5 points in the RCP national average.

[Chips]

Polling with 1 week left: Gephardt leading

Gephardt has 238 electoral votes which is just 32 electoral votes away from 270 while Bush has 210. One piece of good news for President Bush is that VA and it's 13 electoral votes have moved back into his corner as he leads by there by seven points in the RCP poll average. A few polls are still showing a tight race there so this could still be interesting.

[Chips]

Election Day Polling: Gephardt ahead by 1 electoral vote.

Gephardt has 238, Bush has 237. This is going down to the wire and it's very likely the winner will receive less than 300 electoral votes. Later tonight, We'll have all the answers.

[Chips]

Election Night is here.

We can immediately project SC, GA, IN and KY for Bush and VT for Gephardt. VA is being declared too early to call.

7:30PM

WV goes for Bush. NC is too early to call and OH is being declared too close to call. Gephardt probably can't win without OH.

Bush 47, Gephardt 3

[Left Wing]

Final prediction: Gephardt wins 272-266

[Chips]

Here we are the morning after election night. Gephardt has won the critical swing states of Ohio and Missouri. Ohio will likely go to Gephardt by a wider margin than expected. Ohio was always going to be probably the toughest swing state for Bush as Ohio was impacted by job losses. Ohio has lost 500,000 jobs during Bush's presidency and we project Ohio will go to Gephardt by about 3-4%. Meanwhile it is extremely close in Missouri but Gephardt leads by 0.57% with 99% of precincts reporting meaning MO will go to Gephardt without a recount.

Bush has won NV, CO, NM, NH, FL and VA which was a surprising swing state this year. VA went to Bush by 2%. The rest by between 1-4% margins.

There are 3 swing states that are too close to call.

Iowa:

Bush: 49.1%
Gephardt: 49.0%

Wisconsin:

Bush: 49.3%
Gephardt: 49.1%

Arkansas:

Bush: 49.0%
Gephardt: 48.9%

All 3 look like they're heading for a recount. If Gephardt wins any one of the three he wins. If Bush wins all 3 it would be a 269-269 tie and he'd likely win through the Republican house.

[Chips]

It is November 3rd: Wisconsin after a recount will go to Bush. It's just 0.4% but Bush will win WI. Putting him at 256 electoral votes. He still needs to win both IA and AR to tie.

November 5th: Bush will win IA with 7 electoral votes by 0.1%. Less than 2,000 votes separate Bush and Gephardt. Bush is at 263 and it all comes down to Arkansas.

[Left Wing]

Are the senate and house races turning out different?

[Chips]

Are the senate and house races turning out different?

Republicans take the House by a slightly smaller margin and there are no changes whatsoever in the senate.

[Left Wing]

Are the senate and house races turning out different?

Republicans take the House by a slightly smaller margin and there are no changes whatsoever in the senate.

Will Republicans control enough state delegations to elect Bush if there is a tie?

[Chips]

Are the senate and house races turning out different?

Republicans take the House by a slightly smaller margin and there are no changes whatsoever in the senate.

Will Republicans control enough state delegations to elect Bush if there is a tie?

Yes.

[Chips]

GEPHARDT WINS PRESIDENCY WITH 275 ELECTORAL VOTES

November 10th: By under 1,000 votes, Gephardt will win the crucial battleground state of Arkansas. Picking Wesley Clark as his running mate was the right choice all along.

Bush will concede the election later today.

Gephardt has won only 20 states but won 275 electoral votes. Bush won 30 states but only 263 electoral votes.

Swing states results:

Gephardt wins:

Ohio
Michigan
Pennsylvania
Minnesota
Missouri
Arkansas

Bush wins:

Florida
Colorado
Nevada
Virginia
New Hampshire
New Mexico
Wisconsin
Iowa

[Left Wing]

Interested to see how Gephardt's term goes. I expect he will serve one term as there is not really enough time to turn around the recession.

[Chips]

January 20th, 2005: Gephardt is sworn in as the 44th president of the United States.