Virginia Congressional Elections 2020

[Raccoon]

Virginia has several competitive or potentially competitive races this fall. The state GOP is in shambles but is also fighting demographic headwinds and does not appear to have a good future even under a Biden Presidency. In most suburban areas, 2012 was largely a class based election and yet Obama carried Nova handily. Since that time Nova has only grown more racially diverse and has elected a very progressive delegation to the House of Delegates and State Senate.

The state GOP may be a victim of demographic headwinds but there is a large enough voter base that a competent state party could win some important elections under a Biden Presidency such as at least one of the three constitutional offices. The state GOP did catch a lucky break with the 2019 Virginia political crisis that likely resulted in a Northam-tax for Democrats but they still lost control of the State Senate and House of Delegates. But as of today I would rank VA-Gov 2021 as Likely Dem, and VA-LT Gov and VT-Attorney General as Lean Democratic. The latter ratings being cautious as we have little idea of who the actual candidates will be and the state and national climate in 2021.

On to the competitive or potentially competitive congressional districts:

Virginia's 2nd Congressional District: Largely a Virginia Beach/Hampton roads based district. Military presence inflates the Republican vote in the area. In the 2018 midterm elections Democrat Elaine Luria defeated incumbent Scott Taylor by a small margin. Scott Taylor won the primary yesterday. Taylor won the primary despite alleged criminal activity by campaign staffers in the 2018 campaign and rematches often falter. The current national climate suggests that Biden is going to carry this district so I would find it highly unlikely that Luria loses this November. Lean Democrat and Luria by 6 to 8.

Virginia's 5th Congressional District: This is the fun one and this district has had a fun recent electoral history with the most recent being a drive through convention nominating psych Bob Good over incumbent Riggleman who officiated a same-sex marriage. This is a largely rural district that stretches from the fringes of Nova all the way to the North Carolina border in Central/Western Virginia. It is not a particularly white district. Around 20% of the voters are African-Americans and the district has a sizable Asian and Hispanic share. But we all know rural white Virginians are near unanimously Republican to the point that Corey Stewart was able to carry this district in 2018.  Riggleman is claiming fraud and the Democrats yesterday nominated Dr. Cameron Webb. He should be able to obtain a monstrous margin out of Charlottesville and during a pandemic being a doctor should be a boon to your candidacy in theory.

With some backlash from Riggleman supporters, an inspiring and credible candidate by the Democrats and a psychotic Republican nominee this district is only Lean Republican. Trump carried this district by 11 and I would expect that he carries it again by 6 to 8 points. For now I will play this as Tilt Republican with Good only winning by 1 to 2 points.

This district does show a grim reality for the GOP: unlike many states there is no where left for the GOP to grow in the rural part of this state. The Democrats have a literal black floor.


Virginia's 7th Congressional District: Incumbent Abigail Spanberger defeated David Brat in 2018 by a 2.3% margin. This district is stretches from North central Virginia, includes a large portion of the Richmond suburbs and extends a bit further south. Northam was unable to carry it while winning statewide but Spanberger was able to win by dominating the Henrico County portion and winning Chesterfield County, VA by 10 points. Another factor was that Brat was only able to earn 60% or above in only two rural counties in the district. The GOP will decide on their challenger to Spanberger in a convention on July 18th. Biden may win Virginia by a wide enough to barely carry the 7th. On paper this is a tougher district for Democrats compared to VA-02 but I have a hunch that Spanberger is popular enough that she should be able to hold on to the district by 2 to 4 points. But this district would be very difficult to hold under similar lines in a Biden midterm.

Virginia's 10th Congressional District: I literally cross an intersection and I would be in this district but I am barley in VA-11. While  my congressman Gerry Connolly will landslide and likely hit 70% for his reelection, the race across the street from me is a little more competitive. Incumbent Jennifer Wexton smashed Barbara Comstock by a 12.4% margin. The hiking group I am in was trying to convince since January that Rob Jones would become the nominee and upset Wexton. Unfortunately for them, that did not happen. I concede that Rob Jones had the potential to make a single digit race but not have won with the current climate of 2020 with Trump on top of the ballot. Instead they nominated someone who I never even heard of in the convention. Alicia Andrews is the Republican nominee. I suspect Wexton will win re-election between a margin of 12 and 20 points. Probably will be to the left of the state in the congressional vote. This was a wasted opportunity for Democrats in 2016 and Comstock losing Loudoun County, even if barely, was a warning sign for the GOP. Under current lines, I do not know if even a statewide Republican victor would carry this district. Safe Democratic.

This district could become competitive if Trump has to step down due to getting coronavirus or a major scandal and the RNC chooses Larry Hogan as the Republican nominee while Biden ends up in a major scandal.

[Storr]

This thread made me curious, so I looked up how Virginia's districts voted in the 2016 Presidential election. The 5th is strikingly similar to the 1st. The 5th voted 53/41% for Trump, while the 1st voted 53/42% for Trump. The 5th is is 74.5% White, while the 1st is 72.0% White. Interestingly, the 1st has more diversity among its minorities (15.9% Black, 3.6% Asian, 9.4% Hispanic), while the 5th has a much smaller Hispanic population (3.3%) and greater Black population (19.8%). You'd expect both districts to vote the same way, if one flipped, the other would too. But the Riggleman situation explains why the 5th might actually be a possible win for Democrats after how shady Republicans acted and the accusations of election fraud.

[Calthrina950]

I agree with your conclusions here. I expect Good to win, though it will be by a narrow margin-possibly even narrower than Riggleman's 2018 winning margin. Spanberger and Luria are clearly favored, and they will definitely win if Biden carries their districts (which I think he certainly can, especially if he wins the state by double digits as polls suggest). Wexton is absolutely safe, and she will easily win by double digits. All other races are Safe D or Safe R for the party that holds them.

[Raccoon]

https://twitter.com/DKElections/status/1276631878972379136

First poll shows a close race with both Good and Dr. Webb in the low 40s. Trump has  net positive approval here but only 50 to 47.

Most of the undecideds will be Trump voters but there has been some evidence in recent elections that split ticket voting is making some resurgence.

I will hope for the best in this district. Gut feeling saying that it will be a surprise and we will not know the result until after midnight.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

With respect to the 5th district, I wonder when the last time a district was represented by four different members of same party within four consecutive cycles in the middle of a decade?

Edit: The closest I've found was Nebraska 2, which elected four different Republicans in 1950, 1952, 1954, and 1956.  (The first of these was Warren Buffet's father!).

It doesn't quite fit what I mean by "middle of a decade", since the seat may have been redrawn between 1950 and 1952,  But the number of seats in Nebraska didn't change, so it's possible it also didn't change since this was pre-Wesberry.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

I've been to both Virginia 2nd (Williamsburg) and Virginia 5th (Charlottesville) this February.
Did Williamsburg provide the decisive margin for Luria in 2018? Or would she have won without it too?

[lfromnj]

I've been to both Virginia 2nd (Williamsburg) and Virginia 5th (Charlottesville) this February.
Did Williamsburg provide the decisive margin for Luria in 2018? Or would she have won without it too?

tbh im still very confused why VA 02 is so ugly even after the court drawn map.

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

No idea
Virginia 5th is not exactly nicely looking, as well

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

I've been to both Virginia 2nd (Williamsburg) and Virginia 5th (Charlottesville) this February.
Did Williamsburg provide the decisive margin for Luria in 2018? Or would she have won without it too?

She would have won without williamsburg

[lfromnj]

No idea
Virginia 5th is not exactly nicely looking, as well

Well VA 5th was legislature drawn

[25 Abril/Aprile Sempre!]

I've been to both Virginia 2nd (Williamsburg) and Virginia 5th (Charlottesville) this February.
Did Williamsburg provide the decisive margin for Luria in 2018? Or would she have won without it too?

She would have won without williamsburg

Thank you!

[lfromnj]

I've been to both Virginia 2nd (Williamsburg) and Virginia 5th (Charlottesville) this February.
Did Williamsburg provide the decisive margin for Luria in 2018? Or would she have won without it too?

She would have won without williamsburg

Thank you!

Oh virginia is one the easiest states to do that, just go VPAP elections. They have every race by mapped precint since 2015. Very nice. Even shows the 2019 redistricting.

[ponderosa peen 🌲]

This thread made me curious, so I looked up how Virginia's districts voted in the 2016 Presidential election. The 5th is strikingly similar to the 1st. The 5th voted 53/41% for Trump, while the 1st voted 53/42% for Trump. The 5th is is 74.5% White, while the 1st is 72.0% White. Interestingly, the 1st has more diversity among its minorities (15.9% Black, 3.6% Asian, 9.4% Hispanic), while the 5th has a much smaller Hispanic population (3.3%) and greater Black population (19.8%). You'd expect both districts to vote the same way, if one flipped, the other would too. But the Riggleman situation explains why the 5th might actually be a possible win for Democrats after how shady Republicans acted and the accusations of election fraud.

Redistricting notwithstanding VA-01 won't flip because (1) Wittman is well established and (2) there isn't a pool of college educated voters who can compensate for the massive rural extent. VA-05 contains all of Charlottesville and its exurbs and outside of some of Henrico and Hanover VA-01 doesn't have anything similar. Adding to this VA-01 historically has some rural D strength (in the Northern Neck) which has fallen out in the last ten years.