OH-Quinnipiac: Biden +1

[roxas11]

Im Cautiously optimistic but Quinnipiac 2016 Ohio polls have made me skeptical

Remember at this same point in 2016 Quinnipiac also had Hillary and trump tied in the state

In fact if you look at the rcp average of polls they really underestimated Trump Support when it came to Ohio

https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/oh/ohio_trump_vs_clinton-5634.html#polls

they said he win by 2 points and he ended up winning it by 8 on election day.


as said I hope this time it really is tied but it would not surprise or shock me at all if trump ends up doing better than polls are saying he will in this state

[Alben Barkley]

Those approval numbers.....jesus. If this is OH, what does PA, WI, and MI look like?

Wi Marquette poll has Biden ahead by 8, probably too D favored but Biden is winning by at least 4 pts

Wisconsin poll sample favors Trump compared to 2016 exit poll by around 10 points tho... it under polled urban and suburban demos by almost 10 pts.

That is REALLY bad for Trump.

[MillennialModerate]

I didn’t buy the notion this state was gone to the R’s - I saw it as a Tilt R swing state like NC. but if Biden is up double digits nationally and only up 1 in Ohio then maybe it’s time to accept it.

[ProudModerate2]

Numbers released today, in poll after poll, are just horrible for trump.

[Catalyst138]

Ohio is Likely R in a close election, but currently it’s anything but a close election. It could definitely go to Biden.

[EastOfEden]

Hey, if Ohio is determined to keep its winning streak going for one more election, I have no problem with it!

[NOVA Green]

This is not particularly surprising to me and someone who lived in Ohio for Four Years....

Although Ohio will still continue to have a bit of an "R" skew, and certainly in most elections would not fit into a "tipping state" category, it is not immune from movement and events elsewhere.

As I have posted multiple times on Atlas / Talk Elections, Trade Issues and economic protection were at the heart of many of the Obama > Trump voters.

There has been a long-standing strain of Republican ideology, which was extremely prevalent in the Midwest States in particular perhaps best exemplified by the concept of "Taft Republicans".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_A._Taft

Trump was able to harness much of that energy, and although it might have not received nearly as much attention here, as within elements of the Republican Base, as well as persuadable voters it was a key part of his outreach campaign in the 2016 General Election.

From talking about unfair trade competition from Canada to Dairy Farmers in Wisconsin, Mill-workers in upstate Maine, Timber Sector workers in the Pacific Northwest, and even into the Manufacturing Heartland of America, his message resonated within populations that had suffered significant job losses during the "Mancession", otherwise known as the Great Recession.

Trump has completely failed to deliver on his promise to bring good paying MFG jobs back to America in the eyes of many Obama > Trump voters.

Additionally, he has arguably made the situation even worse, as a result of an escalation in a Trade War with China, which although optically makes him "appear tough on China", has actually punished many individuals throughout the Upper Midwest as a result of loss of access to China's Agricultural Market.

Many "farmers" within the region are effectively small family run operations that are heavily machine intensive styles of agriculture which rotate corn & soybeans for farm feed, while sometimes also having hogs feed of the left-overs after harvest season.

COVID-19 created additional disruptions within the region, as dairy farmers were no longer able to have access to restaurants, school lunch programs.... the meat processing industry took major hits and younger hogs were simply killed, since there was no place for them in the slaughterhouses of the region.

Meanwhile, Ohio has experienced the largest level of unrest and mass protests since 1970, which many "swing voters" in Ohio blame on President Trump's inability to even acknowledge that there have been major issues with policing and police brutality, as well as the criminal justice system when it comes to the treatment of African-Americans compared to Anglo-Americans (Sorry in Ohio they are called "White")....

Factories and Public Sector Workers in Ohio are heavily Unionized, with a significant Black Representation, even in smaller & medium-sized communities.

Neighborhoods even within the medium and larger cities are still heavily segregated, just as they were when I live there in the '90s  (Also a bit less so), but the consequence is that public schools  (K-12) tend to lack the diversity of experience among the student body and help fuel racist stereotypes, especially among the children and grand-children of White Appalachian migrants seeking job opportunities in the '50s >'70s at the same time as a massive wave of African-Americans left the Jim Crow South and seeking opportunities in the factories of the North at the same time....

Although those times are over, the memories are still alive...

Churches are another place, along with work environments and factory environments, where you see changes happening on a grassroots level, perhaps invisible if we simply look at it through the lens of partisan political affiliation....

This is not the Ohio of 2004, where George W. Bush and Karl Rove dumped Anti-Gay and Pro-Choice stuff on the ballot to increase turnout, and basically sealed Bush Jr's reelection....

The times they are a changin'

 

[Progressive Pessimist]

Trump supporter logic: "As goes Ohio, so goes the nation. That means that if Biden wins here by one, he is only winning the popular vote by one which is not enough to win the electoral college! Suck it, liebrals!"

But anyway, part of me still wants Trump to win here while losing overall so that the state is no longer considered a bellwether, but if Biden wins here obviously I'll still be more than satisfied. This state really shouldn't be in tossup territory.

[Co-Chair Bagel23]

Good for Trump

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

Good for Trump

Have you looked at the polls lately, Biden is leading by 14 points, so in that instance OH will vote D

[pbrower2a]

Ohio is Likely R in a close election, but currently it’s anything but a close election. It could definitely go to Biden.

That is the point. If Ohio is at all close in November 2020, then Michigan and Pennsylvania, which share some demographic realities with Ohio, are out of reach for President Trump, and his chance for re-election become thin.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

[Adam Griffin]

It's Ohio: don't get your hopes up.

[Bidenworth2020]

It's Ohio: don't get your hopes up.

Looking at this poll, it seems pretty clear to me Trump is favored in Ohio. That said, it would appear that Biden has more upside in this poll than Trump. He has room to grow with black voters and undecided voters who disapprove of Trump.

[Lief 🗽]

New Poll: Ohio President by Quinnipiac University on 2020-06-22

Summary: D: 46%, R: 45%, U: 6%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details

[woodley park]

If Biden wins Ohio while sweeping the rest of the Midwest, great! Glad it came along for the ride.

if Biden loses Ohio while sweeping the rest of the Midwest, great! It finally doesn't matter as a bellwether. Bye!

[The '90s' Last Champion]

46%-48% seems about what Biden will get, but I don't actually buy OH being Democrat, until I see a larger Biden lead and less undecideds.

[emcee0]

I’d like to see a lot more polling from Ohio... if Trump continues to collapse in free fall I want to see what the numbers are looking like in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas for starters and then see if there is any chance of expanding the map even more.

[EastOfEden]

I’d like to see a lot more polling from Ohio... if Trump continues to collapse in free fall I want to see what the numbers are looking like in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas for starters and then see if there is any chance of expanding the map even more.

Careful to not do a Hillary...chasing a landslide is a terrible idea.

[woodley park]

I’d like to see a lot more polling from Ohio... if Trump continues to collapse in free fall I want to see what the numbers are looking like in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas for starters and then see if there is any chance of expanding the map even more.

Careful to not do a Hillary...chasing a landslide is a terrible idea.

Its one thing to chase a landslide, its another thing to do so at the expense of the core states that will enable that landslide in the first place (Michigan, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin). I don't think Biden will make that mistake. Plus, in a way, forcing Trump to invest resources in Likely R states means Trump has fewer resources to contest the Midwest.

[Mr.Bakari-Sellers]

As long as Biden is leading by double digits, it really doesnt matter about other states, aside from Senate elections, Biden will win plus the Senate

[NOVA Green]

I’d like to see a lot more polling from Ohio... if Trump continues to collapse in free fall I want to see what the numbers are looking like in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas for starters and then see if there is any chance of expanding the map even more.

Careful to not do a Hillary...chasing a landslide is a terrible idea.

IDK.... was Obama's (50) State strategy in '08 a terrible idea?

If anything it might not be a bad idea to fly into SLC, Boise, or Omaha on the way down to AZ or TX...

Why not do a stopover in NW SC in between stops in Atlanta and NC?

Hit Akron & Younstown after leaving an event in Erie or Pittsburgh, before doing a tour of MI....

Let's face it running as a "Uniter in Chief" vs the incumbent "Divider in Chief" might fit the mood of the Country right now and focus the election squarely as a referendum on the incumbent.

"Is America better off now than it was Four Years Ago?

[emcee0]

Yeah I’m definitely not advocating to mirror Hillary’s failed strategy but force the GOP to stay in defence as much as possible while investing the campaign more in competitive districts that can impact the race and flip house seats and state assembly control in those four states.

[Rover]

This is not particularly surprising to me and someone who lived in Ohio for Four Years....

Although Ohio will still continue to have a bit of an "R" skew, and certainly in most elections would not fit into a "tipping state" category, it is not immune from movement and events elsewhere.

As I have posted multiple times on Atlas / Talk Elections, Trade Issues and economic protection were at the heart of many of the Obama > Trump voters.

There has been a long-standing strain of Republican ideology, which was extremely prevalent in the Midwest States in particular perhaps best exemplified by the concept of "Taft Republicans".

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Robert_A._Taft

Trump was able to harness much of that energy, and although it might have not received nearly as much attention here, as within elements of the Republican Base, as well as persuadable voters it was a key part of his outreach campaign in the 2016 General Election.

From talking about unfair trade competition from Canada to Dairy Farmers in Wisconsin, Mill-workers in upstate Maine, Timber Sector workers in the Pacific Northwest, and even into the Manufacturing Heartland of America, his message resonated within populations that had suffered significant job losses during the "Mancession", otherwise known as the Great Recession.

Trump has completely failed to deliver on his promise to bring good paying MFG jobs back to America in the eyes of many Obama > Trump voters.

Additionally, he has arguably made the situation even worse, as a result of an escalation in a Trade War with China, which although optically makes him "appear tough on China", has actually punished many individuals throughout the Upper Midwest as a result of loss of access to China's Agricultural Market.

Many "farmers" within the region are effectively small family run operations that are heavily machine intensive styles of agriculture which rotate corn & soybeans for farm feed, while sometimes also having hogs feed of the left-overs after harvest season.

COVID-19 created additional disruptions within the region, as dairy farmers were no longer able to have access to restaurants, school lunch programs.... the meat processing industry took major hits and younger hogs were simply killed, since there was no place for them in the slaughterhouses of the region.

Meanwhile, Ohio has experienced the largest level of unrest and mass protests since 1970, which many "swing voters" in Ohio blame on President Trump's inability to even acknowledge that there have been major issues with policing and police brutality, as well as the criminal justice system when it comes to the treatment of African-Americans compared to Anglo-Americans (Sorry in Ohio they are called "White")....

Factories and Public Sector Workers in Ohio are heavily Unionized, with a significant Black Representation, even in smaller & medium-sized communities.

Neighborhoods even within the medium and larger cities are still heavily segregated, just as they were when I live there in the '90s  (Also a bit less so), but the consequence is that public schools  (K-12) tend to lack the diversity of experience among the student body and help fuel racist stereotypes, especially among the children and grand-children of White Appalachian migrants seeking job opportunities in the '50s >'70s at the same time as a massive wave of African-Americans left the Jim Crow South and seeking opportunities in the factories of the North at the same time....

Although those times are over, the memories are still alive...

Churches are another place, along with work environments and factory environments, where you see changes happening on a grassroots level, perhaps invisible if we simply look at it through the lens of partisan political affiliation....

This is not the Ohio of 2004, where George W. Bush and Karl Rove dumped Anti-Gay and Pro-Choice stuff on the ballot to increase turnout, and basically sealed Bush Jr's reelection....

The times they are a changin'

 

Waw really detailed post, well done Nova green.
Regarding the last point you've made, Bush's victory in 2004 (2.10%) wasn't that remarkable, as a matter of fact, Bush won a bigger margin of victory in 2000 (3.51%).
Kerry ran heavily on the economy and the outsourcing of jobs.
Trump won in 2016 partly by winning over some those voters that voted for Kerry and Obama, I suspect many of those voters will return back to voting dem like you just eloquently explained.

[Interlocutor]

I’d like to see a lot more polling from Ohio... if Trump continues to collapse in free fall I want to see what the numbers are looking like in Ohio, Iowa, Georgia, Texas for starters and then see if there is any chance of expanding the map even more.

Careful to not do a Hillary...chasing a landslide is a terrible idea.

Throwing a couple bucks into tossup states to force Trump to play defense = Chasing a landslide

He can't keep campaigning exclusively in AZ/MI/PA/WI for the next 100 days. Especially if he has enough breathing room to help both House & Senate candidates in Georgia and (to a lesser extent) Texas.

There's only so much campaigning you can do in the swing states until it becomes ineffective and causes burnout.

And that's not even getting into Trumps recent campaigning in Northern Virginia & f'ing Oklahoma