NYT/Siena: Biden +14

[pbrower2a]

With this many people undecided and America split almost evenly between Left and Right, the undecided 14% are almost exclusively on the Right side of the spectrum. In my experience, the undecided typically swing ineffectively to the eventual loser, and such will be so with ads by the Lincoln Project  doing unusually well in winning over center-right voters whose ideal President would be someone like Gerald Ford or Ronald Reagan.

The undecided, I estimate, will split 9-5 for Trump, but that will be enough for a 55-45 split of the popular vote. Such would be the biggest landslide since the elder Bush beat Dukakis in 1988.

[wbrocks67]

With this many people undecided and America split almost evenly between Left and Right, the undecided 14% are almost exclusively on the Right side of the spectrum. In my experience, the undecided typically swing ineffectively to the eventual loser, and such will be so with ads by the Lincoln Project  doing unusually well in winning over center-right voters whose ideal President would be someone like Gerald Ford or Ronald Reagan.

The undecided, I estimate, will split 9-5 for Trump, but that will be enough for a 55-45 split of the popular vote. Such would be the biggest landslide since the elder Bush beat Dukakis in 1988.

Trump's overall approval rating in the poll is 41/56 (97% of voters decided), which is -15, nearly lining up with -14 behind Biden, so I wouldn't be so sure that the undecideds lean one way or the other. Seems like they may be evenly split.

[wbrocks67]

Also, the 14% "other" category includes "would not vote", which I don't know why so many pollsters even bother including

[pbrower2a]

With this many people undecided and America split almost evenly between Left and Right, the undecided 14% are almost exclusively on the Right side of the spectrum. In my experience, the undecided typically swing ineffectively to the eventual loser, and such will be so with ads by the Lincoln Project  doing unusually well in winning over center-right voters whose ideal President would be someone like Gerald Ford or Ronald Reagan.

The undecided, I estimate, will split 9-5 for Trump, but that will be enough for a 55-45 split of the popular vote. Such would be the biggest landslide since the elder Bush beat Dukakis in 1988.

Trump's overall approval rating in the poll is 41/56 (97% of voters decided), which is -15, nearly lining up with -14 behind Biden, so I wouldn't be so sure that the undecideds lean one way or the other. Seems like they may be evenly split.

It could be. Such a rule goes out the window during a collapsing Presidency. I err on the side of caution. I do not call the semblance of a collapse irreversible... yet.

[Brittain33]

At this point the only thing I can see changing the dynamics here are:

1. Some piece of news in the last week that convinces lots of people to vote Trump before anyone really understands the significance and durability of the news
2. Biden getting sick or dying

[Buzz]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

[Ferguson97]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

[Buzz]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Improved economy, Covid vaccine, clear debate wins, Joe Biden actually starts speaking, ect.   Don’t get me wrong I don’t think Trump is going to win, but anyone buying a result like this needs a reality check. 

[Horus]

Wow, I thought Trump was supposed to be back ahead because a few statues got knocked over. Guess not.

[Ferguson97]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Improved economy, Covid vaccine, clear debate wins, Joe Biden actually starts speaking, ect.   Don’t get me wrong I don’t think Trump is going to win, but anyone buying a result like this needs a reality check. 

Economy isn't going to return to pre-March levels. It's just not.

Covid-19 vaccine being developed before November would be an astronomical leap in science. These vaccines take much longer to finish. Though I would not put it past Trump to rush a vaccine or falsely claim it is finished.

[Adam Griffin]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Improved economy, Covid vaccine

Here's the thing: these are the two most-cited issues presently, but - and I haven't really cared to follow much issue-based polling over the past 2-3 weeks, so maybe it's changed - voters generally weren't blaming Trump for COVID or for the economic decline in the first place. In fact, pluralities/majorities in most polls were still supportive of his efforts on "COVID" and "the economy" until recently (if not still), implying that they understood these were basically either external factors beyond his influence or (in the case of the economy) not structural declines a la 2008.

And yet he is still down substantially - and has been for quite some time. Personally I'm not convinced what we're seeing has all that much to do with either issue. I think people are just sick of his demeanor and tone.

[SingingAnalyst]

Even if undecideds break 8-1 for Trump, that's still 51-44 Biden, which should be enough to overcome the EC hurdle.

18-29 year-olds voting Biden over Trump by 34 points? That's like 2008 all over again. Combined with Biden's strong showing among 65+ (down by only 2), it all looks good for Biden.

[MillennialModerate]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Dukakis led by 14 points in June.

It’s not even close to impossible

[tjstarling]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Improved economy, Covid vaccine

Here's the thing: these are the two most-cited issues presently, but - and I haven't really cared to follow much issue-based polling over the past 2-3 weeks, so maybe it's changed - voters generally weren't blaming Trump for COVID or for the economic decline in the first place. In fact, pluralities/majorities in most polls were still supportive of his efforts on "COVID" and "the economy" until recently (if not still), implying that they understood these were basically either external factors beyond his influence or (in the case of the economy) not structural declines a la 2008.

And yet he is still down substantially - and has been for quite some time. Personally I'm not convinced what we're seeing has all that much to do with either issue. I think people are just sick of his demeanor and tone.

This is it I think. Usually Trump says something stupid his numbers go down for a bit and then snap back to a baseline - but this feels different both based on data (i.e., polling) and anecdotal real world conversations I’ve had. People seem tired and, quite frankly, done with him. I’ve heard a couple of soft Trump voters saying they were excited to try something different with this guy and now admit it didn’t work. I do think COVID, the economy, protest have taken a toll. As was noted, it’s less about his performance/blame on or for these matters and more the general feeling of exhaustion they’ve generated. I think people want to move on.

Strangely, I think his Oklahoma rally was a bit indicative of this as well. Yes, some Tik Tok teens pulled some stunts with the sign up. But this was a rally in Oklahoma, one of his best states. He should’ve been able to whip up better turnout than that (the omitted variable being the impact of COVID fear on turnout which I cannot gauge). For all the talk of Trump enthusiasm, I think the act has grown old for many Trump people as well. There’s still plenty of time for things to change, and I’d be shocked if Trump goes down by double digits, but Trump seems to be hurt by American malaise.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Dukakis led by 14 points in June.

It’s not even close to impossible

This is absolutely the correct take.  Four and a half months is an eternity in politics.  Biden and his supporters need to keep their foot on the gas all the way to Election Day.

[Orser67]

I do still think that, in his best case scenario, Trump can pull off a comeback and win a narrow victory in the Electoral College. I also think a Biden+8 win is a lot more likely than a Biden+14 win.

But in our current political environment (in a long-term sense), it's hard to imagine a much better poll for one party than this one, and no amount of rationalizing can change that.

One figure that stands out to me: Biden has the essentially the same "very favorable" number as Trump, but his "very unfavorable" rating is about half that of Trump's.

[TiltsAreUnderrated]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Dukakis led by 14 points in June.

It’s not even close to impossible

Fair point, but most presidential races since 2000 haven't seen such seismic shifts and he only led by as much as he did thanks to the convention bump, which hasn't even happened yet for Biden.

[tagimaucia]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Dukakis led by 14 points in June.

It’s not even close to impossible

Fair point, but most presidential races since 2000 haven't seen such seismic shifts and he only led by as much as he did thanks to the convention bump, which hasn't even happened yet for Biden.

Open elections are always much more dynamic than elections with incumbents (just look at how much more volatile the polls had been up to this point 4 years ago compared to now), and that was doubly true 32 years ago when things were far less polarized.  Also, Dukakis was a completely blank slate who was unknown nationally and Lee Atwater pulled off probably the most impeccably executed slime job in contemporary presidential campaigns.

[Protect Trans Hoosiers]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race.  

- Pollster oversampled Democrats.  

- Trump is still leading in the swing states.  

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2.  

-  Hillary was up 200% on this date in 2016.  

love how we’re preserving SN’s spirit in the most ironic way possible

Again, SN, not aimed at you, dear (since I know you're likely reading this thread), but there are more standard Biden > 10 pt. poll responses:

- Wait until the economy surges back/we have a vaccine/Biden needs to speak on live TV/Trump's team REALLY starts to campaign.  

- Real people with whom I work all support Trump.  This forum needs to get out of their mom's houses.  

- Outlier.  It's actually more like Biden +2-3.

Et cetera, et cetera.  

--

I'm not concinced Biden will win by such lofty margins, but the bottom line is that Trump is in trouble.  

Polls are chronically undercounting Trump voters, many of whom are afraid of admitting their support of the President due to social pressure from their wives, coworkers, company executives, neighbors, the other folks at his favorite pub, the guy who mows their lawn, the media, feminists, and everyone else in the left-wing echo chamber.

[หมูเด้ง]

I do still think that, in his best case scenario, Trump can pull off a comeback and win a narrow victory in the Electoral College. I also think a Biden+8 win is a lot more likely than a Biden+14 win.

But in our current political environment (in a long-term sense), it's hard to imagine a much better poll for one party than this one, and no amount of rationalizing can change that.

Pretty much the same. I was just thinking about that.
Here is where I would put my chips -

5%   Trump either wins the PV and/or Rs take back house. Maybe both. Trump gains in senate by dragging unpopular incumbents across the finish line out west and picks off a couple of seats in the frost belt. The entire Democratic Party credibility is jeopardized as Republicans are guaranteed to finish their original 2016 agenda. R "wave" scenario.
20% Trump comes back and wins similarly against Joe as he did Hillary but Pelosi is still speaker. The senate is a wash, or no more than one gain or loss. Business as usual election and the Democratic establishment loses what credibility it has left.
35% Trump almost comes back and Biden is elected as a lame duck when he doesn't even crack 300 EVs and only gains one or two senate seats. Basically sets us up for a relitigation of the last 6 years.
30% The election regresses to the mean but Biden wins most of the swing states and wins just enough senate seats. It would be more than enough to fix the judiciary and de-Trumpify but not enough to push an agenda.
5% Democrats win the trifecta comfortably and get to push their agenda.
5% Trump situation keeps getting worse.  

[GeorgiaModerate]

Awful number for an incument : 36%.

- It's a D-friendly pollster.

- Pollster missed the 2018 FL-SEN and FL-GOV race.  

- Pollster oversampled Democrats.  

- Trump is still leading in the swing states.  

- 14% undecided? Trash it.  Besides, these voters will break for Trump and so the race is more like Biden +1-2.  

-  Hillary was up 200% on this date in 2016.  

love how we’re preserving SN’s spirit in the most ironic way possible

Again, SN, not aimed at you, dear (since I know you're likely reading this thread), but there are more standard Biden > 10 pt. poll responses:

- Wait until the economy surges back/we have a vaccine/Biden needs to speak on live TV/Trump's team REALLY starts to campaign.  

- Real people with whom I work all support Trump.  This forum needs to get out of their mom's houses.  

- Outlier.  It's actually more like Biden +2-3.

Et cetera, et cetera.  

--

I'm not concinced Biden will win by such lofty margins, but the bottom line is that Trump is in trouble.  

Polls are chronically undercounting Trump voters, many of whom are afraid of admitting their support of the President due to social pressure from their wives, coworkers, company executives, neighbors, the other folks at his favorite pub, the guy who mows their lawn, the media, feminists, and everyone else in the left-wing echo chamber.

This has always been a dumb take, and it hasn't gotten any less dumb over time. 

Granted that some people keep their political preferences quiet due to social pressure; as a Biden supporter in a very red county, I'm in that boat myself.  But there is absolutely no reason for such people to be afraid of revealing their preference anonymously to a pollster!  In many cases, poll respondents aren't even talking to a live person; lots of polls use IVR and/or online surveys.

[American2020]

https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/1275778266524246017

[Bidenworth2020]

This is absolutely cataclysmic for Trump. This may be his worst poll this entire cycle.

[Brittain33]

Can’t wait to bump in November.

Serious question: how can, in your eyes, Trump possibly turn this around by 10+ points by November?

Dukakis led by 14 points in June.

It’s not even close to impossible

Open seat race v. Incumbent
High volatility vs. Trump within the 40-45% band for 3.5 years
Increased polarization
Massive negative world events outside of Trump’s control
Literally a majority of voters “strongly disapprove” of Trump

I wouldn’t be so naive as to say Trump winning is impossible, but it would take an event we can’t easily foresee or predict now to make the change. “economy picks up” “vaccine appears miraculously with 1 billion doses” “Trump gives Biden a nickname” “Biden has a gaffe” aren’t going to happen / make that kind of change. It would take a black swan.

[Alben Barkley]

I'm starting to get the feeling that this won't be a pure tossup close election.

What a huge margin I didn't expect. A "sleeping" or a "bidon (french)" Joe Biden is crushing Trump. I can't imagine what the margin'd be if there's a political animal (Truman, LBJ or Bill Clinton) or a charismatic guy (JFK or Obama).

More and more people think Trump's presidency is a miserable failure. If the results are like this poll, it'd be the worst defeat for an incumbent president since Hoover.

I'm waiting polls in the states.

I would say Bill Clinton was both a political animal and a charismatic guy.

Also yeah this would be the biggest defeat for an incumbent in terms of popular vote since Hoover, but as pointed out above due to polarization it wouldn't be quite as big as 1980 in the EC.